DCCC is focusing on suburban IN 5th over #populist MN 8th

[lfromnj]

http://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/tale-two-districts-2020-house-battlefield

RIP politician.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But I was told IN-05 was Safe R and that dems should focus on "elastic" WA-03 instead

[S019]

Targeting Susan Brooks, this is dumber than spending money on Jennifer Wexton to help her win reelection

MN-08 is gone for the Democrats, and reg GOP would be advised to not spend too much he4 and focus on narrowing the House majority

[SnowLabrador]

Rick Nolan's 2016 victory will be the last time a Democrat wins MN-08 for decades. Meanwhile, IN-05 is slowly trending Democratic. This is a good decision.

[lfromnj]

Rick Nolan's 2016 victory will be the last time a Democrat wins MN-08 for decades. Meanwhile, IN-05 is slowly trending Democratic. This is a good decision.

fun fact. The last time the iron range district flipped before 2010 was in 1946 from R to D in the middle of a Mega R wave where the republicans won back the house for the first time in 16 years.

[Adam Griffin]

Just pointing out that in my early 2017 analysis, IN-05 was one of 47 "prime" districts for pickup opportunities. IMO, IN-2 & IN-9 should also get some attention (though high turnout elections make it difficult to win in them).

With that being said, maybe with somebody like the Booty Judge at the top of the ticket it'd be worth it...but it's realistically a steep climb. I'm not sure as to the caliber of the Democratic candidate in 2018, but from a cursory glance, I'm guessing the performance was more of a baseline than an overperformance.

[S019]

Just pointing out that in my early 2017 analysis, IN-05 was one of 47 "prime" districts for pickup opportunities. IMO, IN-2 & IN-9 should also get some attention (though high turnout elections make it difficult to win in them).

With that being said, maybe with somebody like the Booty Judge at the top of the ticket it'd be worth it...but it's realistically a steep climb. I'm not sure as to the caliber of the Democratic candidate in 2018, but from a cursory glance, I'm guessing the performance was more of a baseline than an overperformance.

Also, I doubt that a gay millennial liberal from South Bend is not going to win over racist and homophobic Trump voters in Indiana, if someone like Delaney is the nominee, then maybe Dems have a chance in a open IN-05 (Brooks is a very strong incumbent), Trump will win IN by double digits and Buttigieg will not help to win back racist and homophobic Trump voters

[Politician]

Conceding MN-08 is dumb.

[Yellowhammer]

Just pointing out that in my early 2017 analysis, IN-05 was one of 47 "prime" districts for pickup opportunities. IMO, IN-2 & IN-9 should also get some attention (though high turnout elections make it difficult to win in them).

With that being said, maybe with somebody like the Booty Judge at the top of the ticket it'd be worth it...but it's realistically a steep climb. I'm not sure as to the caliber of the Democratic candidate in 2018, but from a cursory glance, I'm guessing the performance was more of a baseline than an overperformance.

Also, I doubt that a gay millennial liberal from South Bend is not going to win over racist and homophobic Trump voters in Indiana, if someone like Delaney is the nominee, then maybe Dems have a chance in a open IN-05 (Brooks is a very strong incumbent), Trump will win IN by double digits and Buttigieg will not help to win back racist and homophobic Trump voters

All those racists who voted to elect a black president in 2008?

[Frodo]

Conceding MN-08 is dumb.

How?  The article stated that the district could disappear entirely after redistricting.  So what's the point in recruiting a candidate? 

[Gass3268]

Conceding MN-08 is dumb.

How?  The article stated that the district could disappear entirely after redistricting.  So what's the point in recruiting a candidate? 

If the Democrats get full control, it is possible Democrats could try to regain it by adding parts of the Twin Cities metro to the district.

[MT Treasurer]

Conceding MN-08 is dumb.

No, trying to defeat an incumbent who won his last race by 6 points in a House seat that was one of three R pickups in a Democratic tidal wave would be dumb.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Conceding MN-08 is dumb.

No, trying to defeat an incumbent who won his last race by 6 points in a House seat that was one of three R pickups in a Democratic tidal wave would be dumb.

Add onto that the Democrat being a great recruit.

[ON Progressive]

I would point out that Joe Donnelly won IN-05, so I think it’s actually reasonable to target it.

[Politician]

Conceding MN-08 is dumb.

No, trying to defeat an incumbent who won his last race by 6 points in a House seat that was one of three R pickups in a Democratic tidal wave would be dumb.

The Democrats triaged their nominee and barely spent any money. If 2020 is another great Dem year this could flip with a strong Dem recruit, even though it is still Likely R.

[Hoosier_Nick]

I would point out that Joe Donnelly won IN-05, so I think it’s actually reasonable to target it.

We've also never had a candidate in the district run a full-fledged campaign. There is so much potential for Dems in Hamilton County.

[Jeppe]

Conceding MN-08 is dumb.

No, trying to defeat an incumbent who won his last race by 6 points in a House seat that was one of three R pickups in a Democratic tidal wave would be dumb.

Add onto that the Democrat being a great recruit.

Actually, Joe Radinovich turned out to be a really bad candidate. He got hobbled by a lot of scandals from his youth that made him look unprepared for Congress. He got skewered by attack ads for his lengthy arrest record.

"The Congressional Leadership Found says Radinovich has "spent his life running from the law, charged with 18 crimes."

[Zaybay]

Its possible to target both, people. It isnt one or the other.

[Boobs]

I would point out that Joe Donnelly won IN-05, so I think it’s actually reasonable to target it.

We've also never had a candidate in the district run a full-fledged campaign. There is so much potential for Dems in Hamilton County.

I've heard that Christina Hale is being recruited... Am I correct in saying that she could probably dispatch Brooks?

[Frenchrepublican]

I would point out that Joe Donnelly won IN-05, so I think it’s actually reasonable to target it.

We've also never had a candidate in the district run a full-fledged campaign. There is so much potential for Dems in Hamilton County.

I've heard that Christina Hale is being recruited... Am I correct in saying that she could probably dispatch Brooks?

It’s very unlikely, someone pointed out that Donnelly won the district but....
1. He was a incumbent
2. He was a relatively low key moderate democrat with some crossover appeal
3. He benefited from a very favorable climate
4. He didn’t face a popular incumbent
Despite these factors he barely won the district by a 0.2 point margin so I’m very doubtful that Hale would stand a chance against Brooks

[Frenchrepublican]

I would point out that Joe Donnelly won IN-05, so I think it’s actually reasonable to target it.

Donnelly lost statewide by a margin of 45/51, the democratic presidential candidate will likely lose Indiana by a margin of 15 points or more so it’s very unlikely he/she will carry this district and considering Brooks will likely overperform a bit Trump, I think she is totally safe barring some unexpected developments

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I would point out that Joe Donnelly won IN-05, so I think it’s actually reasonable to target it.

Donnelly lost statewide by a margin of 45/51, the democratic presidential candidate will likely lose Indiana by a margin of 15 points or more so it’s very unlikely he/she will carry this district and considering Brooks will likely overperform a bit Trump, I think she is totally safe barring some unexpected developments

Kinda circular reasoning here. If Democrats make improvements in places like IN-5 then the statewide R margin is going to shrink.

[Frenchrepublican]

I would point out that Joe Donnelly won IN-05, so I think it’s actually reasonable to target it.

Donnelly lost statewide by a margin of 45/51, the democratic presidential candidate will likely lose Indiana by a margin of 15 points or more so it’s very unlikely he/she will carry this district and considering Brooks will likely overperform a bit Trump, I think she is totally safe barring some unexpected developments

Kinda circular reasoning here. If Democrats make improvements in places like IN-5 then the statewide R margin is going to shrink.

Not necessarily. If democrats continue to lose ground in rural areas and small towns in southern and central Indiana, gains in Hamilton and Marion counties won’t be enough to overcome theses loses in the other parts of the state
Clinton did far better than Obama in the 5th district but she did far worse statewide because she lost ground in rural areas.

[ElectionsGuy]

They're finally catching on and realizing this is a mini-realignment and not something unique to one candidate or one election. Even though IN-05 is a better investment, they still won't win either in 2020.

[Frenchrepublican]

Targeting IN 5th would be foolish, Trump won it by 12 in 2016 when he won Indiana 56/37 and Donnelly barely won it when he lost 45/51, in other words the district is only six points more democratic than the state as whole, so unless the democratic presidential candidate is able to win at least 45/46% of the vote in Indiana he will lose the district and considering Brooks is a strong candidate she will almost certainly overperfom Trump by a few points anyway, so even in the unlikely scenario where Trump loses this district (in a such scenario he is probably losing by a double digits margin nationwide) Brooks would likely win again