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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 9233 times)
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« on: March 26, 2019, 11:21:26 pm »
« edited: April 02, 2019, 11:52:58 pm by VirginiŠ »

So, tonight was all around pretty good for Dems in this department (result in WISC, whatever it may be, notwithstanding).

Next week is much more boring - 3 primaries in Florida and an R vs R race in Georgia.

Luckily we’ll probably have Israeli election results to discuss that day.


Old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288367.0
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2019, 11:23:10 pm »

It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

What makes Kiley preferable?

Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.

Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?

Significantly less.

AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2019, 11:27:49 pm »

SD-1 60% in:

Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,606   
6.0%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
37,940   
26.5%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
39,726   
27.8%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
2,662   
1.9%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
12,812   
9.0%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
41,206   
28.8%

If this is seriously going to be R v R, maybe the California Republican Party has finally stopped declining.
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2019, 11:27:50 pm »

It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

Ah ok then, definitely go Kiley.
What makes Kiley preferable?

Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.

Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?

Significantly less.

AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R

Ah well, go Kiley then (between the two of them).

Also damn, Dalhe's ahead of Pflueger now.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2019, 11:28:09 pm »
« Edited: March 26, 2019, 11:31:13 pm by BeTo In DiSaRrAy »

There seems to be a lull in returns; I'll work to add in actual vote numbers as well as updated percentages by county.

Alpine has a bit over 100 votes in. Pflueger leads there, as is expected for Alpine. Overall, it's 15-40-24% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 24-63-38 votes Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

El Dorado is still 35-28-19 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. No update on reporting either. 11,372-8,853-6,085 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Lassen: no votes yet.

Modoc: 9-10-70 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 146-173-1,184 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Not shocking.

Nevada: 10-40-35 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 2,255-8,754-7,655 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is from Truckee, located in Nevada County.

Placer: 41-26-16 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 13,761-8,696-5,233 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Kiley's home county. It's larger than a fair number of the counties in Dahle's district, but the senate district does not include Roseville.

Plumas claims 100% reporting. 14-25-45 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 737-1,265-2,326 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Sacramento claims nearly 100% reporting, but earlier caveats about Sac County are still in play. The portions of Sac County in this senate district are the more conservative (though somewhat trending Dem) parts of the county. 45-26-10 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 9,022-5,213-1,972 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Shasta: 16-14-53 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 2,658-2,306-8,651 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Sierra: 14-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 126-244-424 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Claims 100% reporting

Siskiyou claims about 50% reporting. 11-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 837-1,905-3,421 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Current Totals: 28.8%-26.5%-27.8% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 41,206-37,940-39,726 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Narrow lead for Kiley and Dahle, but still very much a three-way race between them and Pflueger for the top two spots.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2019, 11:39:45 pm »

Lassen just dumped a big load of Dahle votes. 6-12-71 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 243-460-2,789 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

The current standings overall are 28.7%-26.5%-27.9% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 41,374-38,096-40,200 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is about 2,000 votes down.
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2019, 11:59:12 pm »

SD-33 - 7% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
981   
4.8%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
614   
3.0%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,291   
6.3%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
507   
2.5%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
6,208   
30.4%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,559   
7.6%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,599   
7.8%
Josť Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,337   
6.5%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,154   
5.6%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,576   
7.7%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
3,303   
16.2%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
309   
1.5%
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« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2019, 12:25:34 am »

72% in:

Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,770   
5.9%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
38,714   
26.1%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
42,312   
28.6%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
2,941   
2.0%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
13,293   
9.0%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
42,037   
28.4%

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« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2019, 12:28:45 am »

Good for Democrats, that they have clear frontrunner in SD-33. Otherwise - race could easily go into R_R run-off... And in SD-1 Democrats must root for Kiley now...
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« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2019, 12:31:38 am »

30% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,023   
4.6%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
652   
2.9%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,412   
6.3%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
534   
2.4%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
6,705   
30.1%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,751   
7.9%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,780   
8.0%
Josť Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,576   
7.1%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,264   
5.7%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,695   
7.6%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
3,560   
16.0%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
328   
1.5%
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2019, 12:33:45 am »

In the 33rd, Dems are winning 75%-24%. In the 1st, GOP is winning 68%-32%.
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« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2019, 01:00:45 am »

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.
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« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2019, 01:07:50 am »

85% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,138   
4.2%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
700   
2.6%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,941   
7.1%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
622   
2.3%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,134   
29.8%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,376   
8.7%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,489   
9.1%
Josť Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,999   
7.3%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,439   
5.3%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,920   
7.0%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
4,131   
15.1%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
402   
1.5%

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« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2019, 01:09:53 am »

85% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,138   
4.2%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
700   
2.6%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,941   
7.1%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
622   
2.3%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,134   
29.8%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,376   
8.7%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,489   
9.1%
Josť Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,999   
7.3%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,439   
5.3%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,920   
7.0%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
4,131   
15.1%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
402   
1.5%



So Gonzalez is basically guaranteed this seat.
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« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2019, 01:09:59 am »

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....
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« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2019, 01:11:09 am »

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.
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« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2019, 01:20:38 am »

Not much has changed since Wulfric's last update:

Brian D. Dahle (Party Preference: REP) 42,807 28.7%

Kevin Kiley (Party Preference: REP) 42,302 28.3%


Silke Pflueger (Party Preference: DEM) 38,979 26.1%

Rex Hime (Party Preference: REP) 13,443 9.0%

Steve Baird (Party Preference: DEM) 8,815 5.9%

Theodore Dziuba (Party Preference: REP) 2,979 2.0%

Kiley and Dahle are currently in the lead, but Pflueger may still have a shot depending on late arriving ballots. I'll try to keep you folks updated once a day or so.
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« Reply #17 on: March 27, 2019, 01:23:22 am »

Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.
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« Reply #18 on: March 27, 2019, 01:35:26 am »

Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.

Canít be a special election without Wulfric making galaxy brain takes.
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« Reply #19 on: March 27, 2019, 01:38:44 am »

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.

That too. But most likely it will still stay Republican.
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« Reply #20 on: March 27, 2019, 04:00:54 am »

Dahle and Kiley in run-off. Leans Kiley if Democrats will not do dumb thing......
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« Reply #21 on: March 27, 2019, 07:54:54 am »

The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.
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« Reply #22 on: March 27, 2019, 08:29:54 am »

The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

I am pretty sure in the Orange county commisonor race the late votes Leaned R or it went like Leaning R and only the very last leaned D.
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« Reply #23 on: March 27, 2019, 09:02:21 am »

It's over. Everything is in aside from late stuff, it won't be enough. R v R


Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,035
5.8%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
40,304
25.8%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
44,764
28.7%

Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
3,222
2.1%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
14,223
9.1%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
44,519
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« Reply #24 on: March 27, 2019, 09:05:27 am »

At least this one worked out

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,177
4.1%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
725
2.5%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,999
7.0%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
636
2.2%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,700
30.6%

Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,461
8.7%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,577
9.1%
Josť Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,060
7.2%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,479
5.2%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,964
6.9%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
4,224
14.9%

Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
432
1.5%
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