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October 18, 2019, 09:40:54 am
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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 12515 times)
PA is Lean D
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« Reply #100 on: April 02, 2019, 07:56:02 pm »


Yeah, but Iovino doesn't need to match Lamb's special performance here lol.

Pretty much every pundit following the race on Twitter is saying Iovino is hitting her benchmarks.
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You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #101 on: April 02, 2019, 07:56:03 pm »

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.

Why are we spending this much time analyzing a Limo post?
Honestly? Trying to pass the time as the results continue to come in Tongue.

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.

1) Lamb had TWO 2018 "performances", the special in March and the November general, so you're confusing everybody here.
2) I'm referring to his performance in the special because that district contained a wider portion of Southern Allegheny county (thus more precincts to compare to SD-37)
But as you very well know, this was a disproportionate swing.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #102 on: April 02, 2019, 07:57:15 pm »

42% in

Iovino: 54.20% 11,342
Raja: 45.63% 9,550
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #103 on: April 02, 2019, 07:57:18 pm »

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     54.3%   11,342
D Raja (Republican)     45.7%   9,550
90 of 224 (40%) Precincts Reporting, 20,892 Total Votes
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« Reply #104 on: April 02, 2019, 07:57:28 pm »

Pam Iovino (Democratic)     54.3%   11,342
D Raja (Republican)     45.7%   9,550
90 of 224 (40%) Precincts Reporting, 20,892 Total Votes
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #105 on: April 02, 2019, 07:58:52 pm »

I think Iovino would need a more than 2000 vote margin out of Allegheny to feel safe. Washington county in a comparable 2015 special netted 2000 votes for Reschenthaler (R), and he won district-wide by 10.

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/CountyBreakDownResults?officeId=0&districtId=59&ElectionID=50&ElectionType=S&IsActive=0
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #106 on: April 02, 2019, 07:59:48 pm »

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.9%   14,161
D Raja (Republican)     46.1%   12,131
109 of 224 (49%) Precincts Reporting, 26,292 Total Votes
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« Reply #107 on: April 02, 2019, 08:00:23 pm »

Looking pretty solid right now.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #108 on: April 02, 2019, 08:01:09 pm »

Yeah, Iovino probably has this.
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Horus
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« Reply #109 on: April 02, 2019, 08:01:29 pm »

Isn't Raja sort of a Brian Fitzpatrick suburban "moderate" type? Could explain why he might improve on Trump's numbers in this sort of district, though this is Allegheny county, a place with... quirky voting patterns to say the least.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #110 on: April 02, 2019, 08:01:57 pm »

Unless something goes horribly wrong, Iovino has this. Not enough votes in Washington county to make up for remaining Dem votes in Mt. Lebanon, Upper St. Clair, and Bethel Park.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #111 on: April 02, 2019, 08:02:12 pm »

Isn't Raja sort of a Brian Fitzpatrick suburban "moderate" type? Could explain why he might improve on Trump's numbers in this sort of district, though this is Allegheny county, a place with... quirky voting patterns to say the least.

NOOOOOOOOOO! He's more like Saccone. He ran attack ads comparing Iovino to AOC and Bernie.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #112 on: April 02, 2019, 08:03:37 pm »

Unless something goes horribly wrong, Iovino has this. Not enough votes in Washington county to make up for remaining Dem votes in Mt. Lebanon, Upper St. Clair, and Bethel Park.
Woah. This is the first non-troll post I have seen in a while from limo.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #113 on: April 02, 2019, 08:04:19 pm »

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.5%   17,163
D Raja (Republican)     46.5%   14,909
133 of 224 (59%) Precincts Reporting, 32,072 Total Votes
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« Reply #114 on: April 02, 2019, 08:04:29 pm »

Majority of precincts reporting.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #115 on: April 02, 2019, 08:04:59 pm »

61% in, Iovino up 7% (2,200).
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #116 on: April 02, 2019, 08:08:15 pm »

71% in

Virtually unchanged.

Iovino: 53.6% 20,095
Raja: 46.2% 17,329

That should be ball game.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #117 on: April 02, 2019, 08:09:08 pm »

71% in

Virtually unchanged.

Iovino: 53.6% 20,095
Raja: 46.2% 17,329

That should be ball game.

It'll probably be called any minute now.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #118 on: April 02, 2019, 08:09:37 pm »

Still a smidge nervous, but we got this guys!
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #119 on: April 02, 2019, 08:09:47 pm »

Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #120 on: April 02, 2019, 08:10:56 pm »

Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #121 on: April 02, 2019, 08:12:15 pm »

Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.

That also depends on who they nominate
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #122 on: April 02, 2019, 08:13:16 pm »

Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.

That also depends on who they nominate

Yang is probably the only one who could really screw up here.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #123 on: April 02, 2019, 08:14:11 pm »

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.7%   20,095
D Raja (Republican)     46.3%   17,329
152 of 224 (68%) Precincts Reporting, 37,424 Total Votes
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jk2020
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« Reply #124 on: April 02, 2019, 08:14:39 pm »

I think we have this. D+1.
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