Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 16, 2019, 11:26:59 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 Print
Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 7883 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,644


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #150 on: April 02, 2019, 09:20:15 pm »

Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize Iíll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I donít see why we canít let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,963


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #151 on: April 02, 2019, 09:21:06 pm »



That wraps up tonight

What, did all the vote dump at once?
Logged
Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,478
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #152 on: April 02, 2019, 09:24:00 pm »

Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.

I just have to laugh at all the "pundits" on twitter who refused to call the race for Pam, even when she was 3.9K votes ahead, because they thought the one township from Washington could actually make up the difference Roll Eyes
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,963


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #153 on: April 02, 2019, 09:27:39 pm »

Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.

I just have to laugh at all the "pundits" on twitter who refused to call the race for Pam, even when she was 3.9K votes ahead, because they thought the one township from Washington could actually make up the difference Roll Eyes

Wait they were waiting on literally one township? Lmao.
Logged
Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,478
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #154 on: April 02, 2019, 09:31:53 pm »

Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.

I just have to laugh at all the "pundits" on twitter who refused to call the race for Pam, even when she was 3.9K votes ahead, because they thought the one township from Washington could actually make up the difference Roll Eyes

Wait they were waiting on literally one township? Lmao.

Yeah... I mean, they were being careful, but Raja had to win like 98% of the vote in that township to beat Iovino by a vote...
Logged
Kevinstat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,637


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #155 on: April 02, 2019, 09:34:16 pm »

Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the districtís past voting?

Okay, here are the results from 2014 on (since the district grew to become all of Bath):

2014: DeChant (D-inc) 2,435 (65.95%), Daniels (R) 1,257 (34.05%)
2016: DeChant (D-inc) 3,021 (64.45%), Weidner (R) 1,666 (35.55%)
2018: DeChant (D-inc) 2,959 (71.61%), Weidner (R) (same guy) 1,173 (28.39%)
2019 (unofficial): Paulhus (D) 968 (66.48%), Sener (R) 488 (33.52%)
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,963


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #156 on: April 02, 2019, 09:34:48 pm »

Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize Iíll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I donít see why we canít let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.

Well, tonightís results are done now. Iím going to go ahead and start the new thread; feel free to continue discussions on todayís races here.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,644


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #157 on: April 02, 2019, 09:39:30 pm »

Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize Iíll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I donít see why we canít let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.

Well, tonightís results are done now. Iím going to go ahead and start the new thread; feel free to continue discussions on todayís races here.

Sounds good, Iíll do the stickying later this week.
Logged
Kevinstat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,637


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #158 on: April 02, 2019, 09:41:22 pm »

Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the districtís past voting?

Okay, here are the results from 2014 on (since the district grew to become all of Bath):

2014: DeChant (D-inc) 2,435 (65.95%), Daniels (R) 1,257 (34.05%)
2016: DeChant (D-inc) 3,021 (64.45%), Weidner (R) 1,666 (35.55%)
2018: DeChant (D-inc) 2,959 (71.61%), Weidner (R) (same guy) 1,173 (28.39%)
2019 (unofficial): Paulhus (D) 968 (66.48%), Sener (R) 488 (33.52%)

Okay, I guess there was some category of votes (there had to have been more than 10 absentee votes) amounting to 10 votes not counted.  The results are now:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 975 (66.51%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 491 (33.49%)
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,963


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #159 on: April 02, 2019, 09:44:44 pm »

So, tonight was all around pretty good for Dems in this department (result in WISC, whatever it may be, notwithstanding).

Next week is much more boring - 3 primaries in Florida and an R vs R race in Georgia.

Luckily weíll probably have Israeli election results to discuss that day.

Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,963


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #160 on: April 02, 2019, 09:45:34 pm »

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=317244.0
Logged
Lou Barletta's Teeth
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,478
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #161 on: April 02, 2019, 09:53:04 pm »

The Democrats just flipped the Green Bay Mayorship... or is that being discussed in another thread?
Logged
WARR BOY
peenie_weenie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,356
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #162 on: April 02, 2019, 10:56:37 pm »

I'm assuming PA 37 stuff goes in here?

Logged
wbrocks67
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 810
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #163 on: April 03, 2019, 05:41:01 am »

PA 37 is good news, though was hoping Iovino's margin would be higher than +4%. But probably too much to expect it to be close to Wolf (+16%) or Casey (+12%), but hey it's still way above Trump's margin, so that's good. While other states have faltered in special elections for Ds this year, PA has been a bright spot. Still resisting Trump.
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,351
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #164 on: April 03, 2019, 02:54:34 pm »

Schedule:

4/9: Florida HD 7 R primary, HD 38 R Primary, Georgia HD 28 (R v R)
4/16: Connecticut HD 19
4/23: South Carolina HD 14, Tennessee SD 22
4/30: Wisconsin AD 64
5/7: Connecticut HD 130
5/21: Pennsylvania SD 33, SD 41, HD 11
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #165 on: April 03, 2019, 09:35:59 pm »

If Democrats win this Pennsylvania Election, and also the Wisconsin Election (they need to just win the Pennsylvania Election though they need a substantial margin in the Wisconsin Election), it will be time to call the whole 2020 Presidential Race for the Democratic nominee.

Quoting for future use, given how wrong your 2016 and 2018 predictions were.

People in glass houses.....
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #166 on: April 03, 2019, 09:38:10 pm »

I'm not sure if I like the early numbers so far... Iovino doing better than Clinton, but much worse than Lamb in some Allegheny precincts.

I'm looking at this map for reference: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

(Points and laughs at the Republican hack pretending to be a Democrat...poorly)
Logged
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,950
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #167 on: April 07, 2019, 12:29:35 pm »

Final results from CAís 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}:

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,156
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #168 on: April 08, 2019, 10:51:24 am »

Final results from CAís 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}:

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.

As i said earlier - Lean Killey if Democrats are smart and will choose "slightly better" Republican candidate in run-off, Lean Dahle if they are dumb and will stay home "en masse"...
Logged
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,950
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #169 on: April 08, 2019, 11:47:36 am »

Final results from CAís 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}:

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.

As i said earlier - Lean Killey if Democrats are smart and will choose "slightly better" Republican candidate in run-off, Lean Dahle if they are dumb and will stay home "en masse"...

Yeah, my parents and I (2 Dems and a RINO whoís about to go No Party Pref) are going to vote for Kiley. Iíd rather have our assemblyman than someone elseís as my senator. Plus Iíll get another special election.
Logged
Lfromnj stands with Sanchez.
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,530


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #170 on: April 08, 2019, 12:21:54 pm »

The special for NJ SD-01 isnít til November but appointed Democratic incumbent Bob Andrzejczak is fighting to hold a Trump +9 seat that also went for Kim Guadagno and Bob Hugin, the latter by a landslide. I think he should be able to overcome that given his own impressive electoral performance when he was one of the districtís assemblymen. Heís a Bronze Star disables veteran so that probably has helped him significantly over perform the districtís lean in the past. Heís most likely being groomed by the Norcross machine to run for NJ-02 at some point after Van Drew retires or is defeated.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/gop-maintains-registration-edge-in-ld-1/amp/

Its a slightly republican district but for some reason D's have recently held this district at the state level for the past decade. It is Obama trump. Funfact about NJ. The state senate leader for both majority and minority along with the minority state house leaders represent obama Trump district for majority senate leader and Romney Clinton for the minority leaders.
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,351
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #171 on: April 09, 2019, 02:58:37 pm »
« Edited: April 09, 2019, 04:01:29 pm by Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon »

Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/95134/Web02-state.226435/#/
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,075


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #172 on: April 09, 2019, 03:01:43 pm »

Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,351
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #173 on: April 09, 2019, 06:01:11 pm »

Polls are closed
Logged
#Kavanaugh For Prison
Solid4096
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,817


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #174 on: April 09, 2019, 06:27:12 pm »

Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] 8 9 10 11 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC