Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 20, 2019, 12:44:53 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] Print
Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 7980 times)
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,197
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #250 on: June 04, 2019, 11:38:55 pm »

Democrats probably decided to be idiots and sit SD-1 election out completely. Well, they are likely to have a right-wing nutjob Dahle representing them..
Logged
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,960
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #251 on: June 05, 2019, 12:07:01 am »

Probably my last update for the night:

65,956 52.8% Dahle
58,902 47.2% Kiley
66% reporting

It's definitely looking like Dems sat this one out, which is disappointing. Not sure if they would've swung it for Kiley, but jeez people, at least vote for the best of the Republicans (whoever you think that may be) or the one who's more likely to be replaced by a Dem (0.5% chance vs 0% chance).
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,197
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #252 on: June 05, 2019, 12:11:54 am »

Probably my last update for the night:

65,956 52.8% Dahle
58,902 47.2% Kiley
66% reporting

It's definitely looking like Dems sat this one out, which is disappointing. Not sure if they would've swung it for Kiley, but jeez people, at least vote for the best of the Republicans (whoever you think that may be) or the one who's more likely to be replaced by a Dem (0.5% chance vs 0% chance).

One more confirmation of the fact, that continuing ideologisation and polarisation of American politics makes it more and more idiotic with every passig year.... Reasonably sure, that 2020 will be even worse...
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,197
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #253 on: June 05, 2019, 01:15:18 am »
« Edited: June 05, 2019, 01:25:12 am by smoltchanov »

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,984


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #254 on: June 05, 2019, 07:25:36 am »

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Rule 3 of Specials: Hispanic vote drops off precariously during any non-november election. We have seen this already this years in Texas specials, saw it before 2018 in California specials, saw it in the Texas primary...its only Nevada that sometimes bucks the trend if the national parties are pouring in cash for a certain election.
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,374
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #255 on: June 05, 2019, 10:58:14 am »

Final:

Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
70,556   
53.1%

Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
62,259   
46.9%

Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
26,343   
69.0%

Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
11,835   
31.0%
Logged
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,960
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #256 on: June 05, 2019, 11:00:32 am »

Final:

Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
70,556   
53.1%

Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
62,259   
46.9%

Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
26,343   
69.0%

Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
11,835   
31.0%


Iíd like to note that thereís still ballots to be counted in both races, but I think itís safe to call both.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,264
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #257 on: June 05, 2019, 01:46:55 pm »

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Like Oryx said, it's not remarkable, it's pretty typical.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,197
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #258 on: June 05, 2019, 02:40:08 pm »

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Like Oryx said, it's not remarkable, it's pretty typical.

When party candidate doubles his party Presidential candidate's percentages in his/her race - it's remarkable. At least - for me.
Logged
Annatar
Full Member
***
Posts: 216
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #259 on: June 09, 2019, 03:14:34 am »

I'm not a big believer in the idea special election swings tell us much about what will happen in a general election, especially in a Presidential year but for what its worth, the average swing in the 29 special elections since the midterms where both parties together got at least 90% of the vote has been 6.1% towards the dems compared to Trump-Clinton and 0.8% compared to Obama-Romney, the average in the 2017-2018 cycle was 11.2% vs Clinton's number and 5.9% compared to Obama according to DailyKos. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dXQhlzCAw05fC7P21eCivdfLOB-F3nykPVRPzG49U9g/edit#gid=0

For a more exact comparison, in the first 29 special elections post Nov 8 2016 which went through to August of 2017 the average swing vs Clinton was 12.5% in the dems favour and 9.6% vs Obama. Again I'm not sure this really means anything but it might be a marker of reduced democratic energy.
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,374
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #260 on: June 11, 2019, 05:29:49 pm »

Today we have the special primary for Alabama HD 74. The Republican Primary is hotly contested; the democratic primary consists of one candidate running unopposed. Results will be here: http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/countyResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001040&cid=03

Additionally we have the special general for Maine HD 45. Democrats are expected to hold the seat.

Polls close at 8 ET
Logged
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,034
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #261 on: June 11, 2019, 07:32:27 pm »

Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,374
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #262 on: June 11, 2019, 07:40:14 pm »

7% in:

Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
10.42%
5
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
2.08%
1
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
2.08%
1
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.17%
2
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
60.42%
29
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
20.83%
10
Logged
Kevinstat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,638


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #263 on: June 11, 2019, 07:56:58 pm »



"All I know is he's won, per the local party. Maine doesn't post SOS results, but ideally I'll find numbers within the next hour" ( https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1138604721185394688 )

Perhaps it was this tweet from House Majority Leader Matt Moonen: https://twitter.com/mattmoonen/status/1138603403712651264 .

I think he did that with at least one of the earlier special elections this year.  I wish people would just wait until the actual numbers came in, but of course if the victory is underwhelming the party would want the victory to be the "breaking news."
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,374
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #264 on: June 11, 2019, 08:50:48 pm »

Final:

Percent
Votes
Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
22.30%
618
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
6.93%
192
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
11.58%
321
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.15%
115
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
43.96%

1,218
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
11.08%
307
   
2,771
Logged
Kevinstat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,638


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #265 on: June 11, 2019, 09:01:20 pm »

According to the Portland Press Herald, Moriarty (D) carried Cumberland (like 82% of the district based on 2010 census figures) 1,221 votes (61.73%) to 757 (38.27%). They don't have results from the Gray portion of the district (most of Gray is in another district), but while the Gray portion does seem to be a bit more Republican it's clear Moriarty has won, most likely north of 60%.

www.pressherald.com/2019/06/11/local-election-results-for-southern-maine/
Logged
Kevinstat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,638


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #266 on: June 11, 2019, 09:59:17 pm »

According to the Portland Press Herald, Moriarty (D) carried Cumberland (like 82% of the district based on 2010 census figures) 1,221 votes (61.73%) to 757 (38.27%). They don't have results from the Gray portion of the district (most of Gray is in another district), but while the Gray portion does seem to be a bit more Republican it's clear Moriarty has won, most likely north of 60%.

www.pressherald.com/2019/06/11/local-election-results-for-southern-maine/

portion of Gray in the district (unofficial, of course everything's unofficial until the losing candidate indicates that he will not request a recount, although that may have already happened): Moriarty (D) 68 (59.13%), Hughes (R) 47 (40.87%).

Overall: Moriarty (D) 1289 (61.59%), Hughes (R) 804 (38.41%).
Logged
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,010
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #267 on: June 12, 2019, 08:15:34 am »

Final:

Percent
Votes
Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
22.30%
618
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
6.93%
192
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
11.58%
321
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.15%
115
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
43.96%

1,218
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
11.08%
307
   
2,771

Fritz should be in bold too, this is Alabama, so there is a runoff.
Logged
smoltchanov
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,197
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #268 on: June 18, 2019, 08:34:41 pm »
« Edited: June 18, 2019, 08:48:09 pm by smoltchanov »

Republicans hold both FL-07 and FL-38. Result in FL-38:

Randy Maggard REP 9,615 55.58%

Kelly Smith DEM 7,684 44.42%

may be considered rather good for Democrats despite loss, result in HD-07:

Jason Shoaf REP 11,604 71.3%

Ryan Terrell DEM 4,670 28.7%

- surely not, as Democratic candidate managed to underperform even HRC in this rural, ancestrally Democratic, but solidly conservative district. Probably - he simply doesn't fit it....

Excellent paper on HD-07 and it's peculiar politics is here:

https://mcimaps.com/hd7-2019-special-election-the-last-of-floridas-conservative-democratic-districts/

In some cases it's ridiculous: very rural Liberty county, with about 70% Democratic registration and all-Democratic for county offices, went almost 4-1 for Republican candidate (and almost equally divided by registration Lafayette, which is majority-Democratic on county level: 7-1). Democrats continue to crater in rural South. They are lucky, that South became less rural of late.
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,374
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #269 on: June 18, 2019, 08:46:21 pm »

There are no further state leg specials until August.
Logged
skbl17
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 54
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #270 on: July 10, 2019, 12:40:07 pm »

Special election for GA-HD-71 to be held on September 3 due to the resignation of Rep. David Stover. The eastern Coweta-based district is solidly Republican (it was R+[some number greater than 45] in 2018).
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC