State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[MaxQue]

Final:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
27,786   
39.1%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
25,669   
36.2%
Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
12,298   
17.3%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,305   
1.8%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,943   
5.6%

This is a tough district for a Dem to win, but these results point to anything being possible in Round 2. The Democrat won the most votes in this first round, and 5/9 counties went either for the Democrat or the third-place candidate. Republicans are clearly disunified and split. Should be an interesting runoff.

Voted for Cox by 22.4% and Trump by 20.6. It's Titanium R. The runoff will be fairly straightforward and Dahle will win by 25-26 points.

I struggle to see how the margin will be over 22. You did some people voted D now and will vote for Dahle in the runoff?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Can’t believe I missed this one. I blame the issues I’ve been having getting the paper delivered.

But yeah, it’s titanium R in the general. So Dahle’s sister/wife/daughter/whatever will in all likelihood be the next assemblywoman.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

GA-71 Result:

NINA BLACKWELDER (REP)6.86%343
JILL E. PROUTY (DEM)22.11%1,106
MARCY WESTMORELAND SAKRISON (REP)34.20%1,711
PHILIP SINGLETON (REP)36.84%1,843
5,003

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

GA-71 Runoff:

MARCY WESTMORELAND SAKRISON (REP)41.14%1,788
PHILIP SINGLETON (REP)58.86%2,558
4,346

SC-84 - 57% in:

REP Melissa Oremus96.69%146
NON NON   Write-in3.31%5
151

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final results GOP Vose edges Democrat Andrews in Epping, 880-806.

(NH Rockingham 9)

[Ebsy]

Strap in everyone, we have special elections tonight:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1191152661506220033

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

There’s also one in the far northeastern corner of California, Assembly District 1, to replace Brian Dahle. Dahle won the special election for the 1st Senate District after Ted Gaines resigned to take his seat on the state Board of Equalization.

Republican Megan Dahle (Brian’s wife) is facing Democrat Elizabeth Betancourt. In all likelihood, this one will be a snooze and will stay Republican.

[libertpaulian]

The Texas one will be interesting, especially now that Texas is in a post-Beto environment.

[Ebsy]

BIG pickup for Missouri Democrats in West County.

[Ebsy]

Democrat leading in HD-28 against an extremely divided GOP field, think this heads to a runoff.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Republicans flip NJ SD-01.

[lfromnj]

Another California special
https://www.pe.com/2019/10/30/state-sen-jeff-stone-to-resign-after-accepting-department-of-labor-job/
Eastern riverside county
Trump +2, seems Likely R too me IMO.

[Bojack Horseman]

Republicans flip NJ SD-01.

How many did we lose in the Assembly?

[Gracile]

Republicans flip NJ SD-01.

This is Jeff Van Drew's old seat, further showing that he might face some serious trouble come 2020.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Republicans flip NJ SD-01.

How many did we lose in the Assembly?

Republicans picked up Assembly District 1, 2, and are currently leading in District 38.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results:

AL-42: Republican Van Smith was the winner: https://www.wsfa.com/2019/11/06/van-smith-wins-special-election-state-house-district-seat/

AR-36: Election was cancelled due to republicans not contesting the Seat. Democrat Denise Ennett was the winner of the Democratic Primary.

GA-152: Going to a December 3 Runoff:

State Representative, District 152
69% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
Jim Quinn (R) 3,833 42%
 Bill Yearta (R) 3,164 34%
Mary Egler (D) 1,378 15%
Tyler Johnson (R) 829 9%

KY-18 and 63: Republican wins in both cases; was covered on the main ky results thread

MS-50: Another Republican win: https://www.sunherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article237048004.html

NJ-1: Republican hold per NYT

NY-57: Easy republican hold:


State Senate - District 57 - Special General
121 of 215 Precincts Reporting - 56% Updated: 22:52 ET
Party Name Votes Vote %
GOP Borrello, George 25,508 71.90 %
Dem Morgan, Austin 9,970 28.10 %

TN-77 Primary:

Tennessee House District 77 - Republican Primary
View County Breakdown (Republican)
Candidate Votes %
Rusty Grills 4,210 55.90%
Casey L Hood 1,918 25.47%
Bob Kirk 759 10.08%
Vanedda Prince Webb 644 8.55%

Tennessee House District 77 - Democratic Primary
View County Breakdown (Democratic)
Candidate Votes %
Michael Smith 526 100.00%

TX-28: Going to D v R runoff https://patch.com/texas/sugarland/texas-state-house-28-2019-election-results

TX-100: Going to a D v D runoff https://patch.com/texas/dallas-ftworth/texas-state-house-100-2019-election-results

TX-148: Going to a D v R Runoff https://patch.com/texas/houston/texas-state-house-148-2019-election-results

-----------


Missouri Results here: https://enr.sos.mo.gov/

Dems have won District 22, District 36, District 74, District 78, District 99
GOP has won District 158


Washington results here: https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html

Dems won District 40; GOP won District 13-2.

Stay tuned for the California result

[lfromnj]

Republicans flip NJ SD-01.

This is Jeff Van Drew's old seat, further showing that he might face some serious trouble come 2020.

Meh the real problem is the R's flipping NJ2.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republicans win CA - 1:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
33,411
42.4%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
 45,303
57.6%

[Ebsy]

WRONG, Republicans did not win HD-99 in Missouri.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Schedule for the rest of the year:


11/12: AL House 74
12/3: Georgia House 152 Runoff
12/10: AR House 22 Primary
12/19: TN House 77
TBD: TX Runoffs for House 28, 100, 148

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WRONG, Republicans did not win HD-99 in Missouri.

fixing

[MarkD]

A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.

[Dr. Arch]

A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.

And the trends continue. I'm actually wondering how the WOW counties will look like in WI next year.

[Annatar]

There were plenty of legislative districts Dems won in 2017-18 special elections due to low turnout overall that they ended up losing in the 2018 midterms when turnout was higher overall.

For example Dems won Senate District 1 in WI in June 2018 by 3% after Trump had won it only to lose it again in the midterms. 28,427 people voted in SD 1 in the June Special compared to 86,678 in the midterms when it flipped back to being Republican.

[Ebsy]

HD-99 contains Manchester, one of the tony suburbs in West St. Louis County notable for its strip malls which stretch for miles along Manchester as well as Valley Park, a more middle class Meramec River suburb that is protected by a big 'ole army corps of engineers levee. That it is now represented by a Democrat is frankly insane, but that's suburban trends for you.