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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 8120 times)
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #25 on: March 27, 2019, 09:05:59 am »

Next Elections are the LA runoffs on Saturday.
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« Reply #26 on: March 27, 2019, 09:08:52 am »

Next Elections are the LA runoffs on Saturday.
Predictions are LaCombe +10 and Aucoin +10.
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Holmes
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« Reply #27 on: March 27, 2019, 09:14:24 am »

The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

Hard to say, since like I said, itís the most white, rural and Republican senate district in the state. Itíll probably buck expected trends.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #28 on: March 27, 2019, 11:04:01 am »

The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

Hard to say, since like I said, itís the most white, rural and Republican senate district in the state. Itíll probably buck expected trends.

This isnít ďAvalancheĒ Ami Beraís US House district, thatís for sure. I wonít say itís over until itís over, but the Pflueger campaign should probably be looking at packing things up.

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.

California Democrats struggle with winning Clinton +5 assembly seats, let alone one Trump won by double digits. This will be another snoozer.

I think it will be ďsurprisingly closeĒ to outsiders. Aka 54-46 if itís a Dem vs a Rep in the general.
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #29 on: March 27, 2019, 03:15:41 pm »

Maine State Rep. Dale Denno (D-45) has resigned to seek treatment for cancer. Special likely coming in June. Denno won his second term in November by 30 points and 1,700 votes (a lot in tiny Maine House districts).
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Theodore
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« Reply #30 on: March 28, 2019, 07:59:33 am »

Maine State Rep. Dale Denno (D-45) has resigned to seek treatment for cancer. Special likely coming in June. Denno won his second term in November by 30 points and 1,700 votes (a lot in tiny Maine House districts).

Very sad, I hope he gets better soon
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #31 on: March 28, 2019, 10:53:51 am »

The Sacramento Bee reports that counting in CAís 1st Senate District should be done by April 4th, one week from today. Ballots are likely still coming in.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2019, 01:56:57 am »

Waiting with interest results in Louisiana's HD-18. Because, IMHO - this district is one of the few "atypical" districts in the whole country: district really suited and willing to go for a rather conservative (in real, not modern, where Dianne Feinstein is a "conservative", sense of this word) Democrat. Previous Democratic representative was moderate conservative (again - in real sense of these words), and such Democratic candidates are the best here. It's similar in some way to some other "backwater districts", still existing here and there. The best example for me remains Florida's Liberty county: absolutely rural, with 70+% Democratic registration, electing (IIRC) Democrats only for local offices, and, at the same time - 19,75% for HRC, 23.34% - for Bill Nelson, and 19,65% for Andrew Gillum. HD-18 has substantially more Blacks, and still went for "local liberal" Mary Landrieu (51.28%) in 2014, but -  strongly rejected HRC 2 years later..
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #33 on: March 30, 2019, 11:49:46 am »

LA Runoff Results: https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical/

Polls close at 9 ET. We've got 3 leg races and 2 judicial races to keep your attention.
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Badger
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« Reply #34 on: March 30, 2019, 04:38:34 pm »

Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.

Yeah , that was truly facepalm Worthy even by his standards.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #35 on: March 30, 2019, 08:03:50 pm »

Here were the final early voting numbers in HD-18 and HD-62:




HD-18's primary had a combined 75% Dem vote between 4 Dems, while HD-62 had the lone R get 45.5% with 30.8% going to the Indy and the remaining 23.7% going to the three Democrats.
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« Reply #36 on: March 30, 2019, 08:07:26 pm »

I live in PA-37 and I swear, I sort of like D. Raja.
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« Reply #37 on: March 30, 2019, 08:15:53 pm »


Looks like this is over.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #38 on: March 30, 2019, 08:39:22 pm »

Judge, Court of Appeal -- 2nd Circuit, 2nd Dist., Election Section 2
9 of 122 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Jason Trevor Brown (REP)   17.69%   691
"Jeff" Thompson (REP)   82.31%   3,216
State Representative -- 17th Representative District
0 of 27 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Rodney McFarland, Sr. (DEM)   41.19%   465
"Pat" Moore (DEM)   58.81%   664
State Representative -- 18th Representative District
3 of 41 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 3 of 4 parishes
Click here for Results by Parish
Tammi G. Fabre (REP)   26.97%   558
Jeremy S. LaCombe (DEM)   73.03%   1,511
State Representative -- 62nd Representative District
9 of 64 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Roy Daryl Adams (IND)   46.42%   1,050
Dennis Aucoin (REP)   53.58%   1,212
District Judge -- 24th Judicial District Court, ES 1, Div. E
6 of 82 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Frank A. Brindisi (REP)   58.26%   878
Christy Howley (DEM)   41.74%   629
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #39 on: March 30, 2019, 09:10:58 pm »

LaCombe wins with just under 70% and Roy Daryl beats Aucoin.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #40 on: March 30, 2019, 09:13:15 pm »

Projected Winners in Bold:

Judge, Court of Appeal -- 2nd Circuit, 2nd Dist., Election Section 2
72 of 122 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Jason Trevor Brown (REP)   21.97%   1,655
"Jeff" Thompson (REP)   78.03%   5,877
State Representative -- 17th Representative District
All 27 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Rodney McFarland, Sr. (DEM)   36.75%   1,398
"Pat" Moore (DEM)   63.25%   2,406
State Representative -- 18th Representative District
39 of 41 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Tammi G. Fabre (REP)   32.37%   2,013
Jeremy S. LaCombe (DEM)   67.63%   4,205
State Representative -- 62nd Representative District
56 of 64 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Roy Daryl Adams (IND)   54.06%   2,614
Dennis Aucoin (REP)   45.94%   2,221
District Judge -- 24th Judicial District Court, ES 1, Div. E
51 of 82 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Frank A. Brindisi (REP)   57.40%   2,586
Christy Howley (DEM)   42.60%   1,919
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #41 on: March 30, 2019, 09:27:11 pm »

JBE has to be very happy with the state legislative results tonight.
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« Reply #42 on: March 30, 2019, 09:56:34 pm »

I hope Roy Adams caucuses with us.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #43 on: March 30, 2019, 10:17:56 pm »

Wrapping Up:

 
64 of 64 precincts reporting - 100%
absentee reporting - 100%   Votes
2,925   Roy Daryl Adams (IND)  54%
2,529   Dennis Aucoin (REP)  46%
Total: 5,454
Unofficial Turnout: 17.7%
District Judge -- 24th Judicial District Court, ES 1, Div. E
 
82 of 82 precincts reporting - 100%
absentee reporting - 100%   Votes
3,625   Frank A. Brindisi (REP)  57%
2,762   Christy Howley (DEM)  43%
Total: 6,387
Unofficial Turnout: 7.1%


-------------


More elections on 4/2 - ME HD 52, PA SD 37, MS HD 101 Runoff (R v R)
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #44 on: March 30, 2019, 10:31:55 pm »

TITANIUM D LOUISIANA
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #45 on: March 30, 2019, 11:29:16 pm »

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #46 on: March 30, 2019, 11:29:46 pm »





Its fairly clear that the dem voters pushed the Indie over the top here. 
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #47 on: March 31, 2019, 12:31:49 am »





Its fairly clear that the dem voters pushed the Indie over the top here. 

Sure. Adams ran as typical southern populist: solid conservative on most social issues (100% pro-life, for example), but - more moderate on economy. So it was only natural for Democrats to support HIM in run-off. But- in addition to Democratic support he got supported by his Republican predecessor in this seat as well (though he was a Republican, he was, essentially, of the same type as Adams, and frequently quarreled with more "pure" members of his party).
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Brittain33
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« Reply #48 on: March 31, 2019, 10:55:22 am »

It would surprise me if Adams chose to caucus with the Dems since they're a minority and likely to stay one.
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Pittsburgh For Kamala
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« Reply #49 on: March 31, 2019, 11:02:16 am »

I live in PA-37 and I swear, I sort of like D. Raja.

LOL I'm going to hit a big fat (X) on that one.

The guy is clinically insane.
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