State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:47:49 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 ... 60
Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 131273 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #225 on: May 22, 2019, 02:00:12 PM »

The 11th district loss was very impressive for democrats. Heard the Democrats ran some iron worker.

Agree. The only "bright spot" for Democrats in yesterday's elections..

Tbf, these are wealthier suburbs and exurbs getting bluer.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #226 on: May 22, 2019, 10:31:52 PM »

33rd Senatorial District County Breakdown
HAMMOND, SARAH E
(DEM)
30.47%
    Votes: 3,445
MASTRIANO, DOUG
(REP)
69.53%
    Votes: 7,863


BOSER, SUSAN
(DEM)
34.4%
    Votes: 12,708
PITTMAN, JOE
(REP)
65.6%
    Votes: 24,236


11th Legislative District County Breakdown
DOCTOR, SAMUEL JOSEPH
(DEM)
42.61%
    Votes: 4,312
MUSTELLO, MARCI
(REP)
57.39%
    Votes: 5,808


That turnout in SD 33 seems wildly different from the other two.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #227 on: May 24, 2019, 10:14:17 AM »

That turnout in SD 33 seems wildly different from the other two.

It does. Were the Allegheny local and county primary elections a big draw?
Logged
Seattle
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 786
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #228 on: May 24, 2019, 04:24:34 PM »

LD-1 State Senator Guy Palumbo (D) has resigned effective 5/24 to take a job at Amazon.
This will trigger a November special, I believe. Should be Safe D.
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #229 on: May 25, 2019, 12:59:04 AM »

LD-1 State Senator Guy Palumbo (D) has resigned effective 5/24 to take a job at Amazon.
This will trigger a November special, I believe. Should be Safe D.

Amazon, probably, pays more....
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #230 on: May 25, 2019, 12:15:29 PM »

That turnout in SD 33 seems wildly different from the other two.

It does. Were the Allegheny local and county primary elections a big draw?

There were competitive DA and council primaries that fueled turnout.
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #231 on: May 28, 2019, 08:59:52 PM »

Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. I’m voting Kiley since it’s more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #232 on: June 04, 2019, 11:32:57 AM »

Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. I’m voting Kiley since it’s more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #233 on: June 04, 2019, 12:26:21 PM »

Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. I’m voting Kiley since it’s more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.

Given the district - not surprising. Rooting for Kiley. But - one question: until not so long ago this territory used to elect Democrats not infrequently. What happened? Were these Democrats rather conservative or what?
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #234 on: June 04, 2019, 02:46:42 PM »

The MO HD 99 is heating up for November. Both the Dems and GOP have recruited serious candidates and I got a call from the Dem group today asking me to canvass. Presumably the Republicans are mobilizing as well. Both candidates appear to be upper middle class professional wine moms which is pretty hilarious.
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #235 on: June 04, 2019, 03:18:42 PM »

Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. I’m voting Kiley since it’s more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.

Given the district - not surprising. Rooting for Kiley. But - one question: until not so long ago this territory used to elect Democrats not infrequently. What happened? Were these Democrats rather conservative or what?

I’m not an expert, but I think that there was a lot of logging going on in places like Lassen and Plumas Counties. They were some of the best counties for the CA Dems back maybe 40-50 years ago like you mentioned.

Polls in California close at 8 PM local time, 11 PM Eastern. (6 hours and 40 or so minutes)
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #236 on: June 04, 2019, 07:05:04 PM »

District 1: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/1
District 33: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/33

There's also a race for NJ Senate District 1, not seeing a results page for that though.
Logged
Mr. Matt
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 599
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #237 on: June 04, 2019, 07:15:24 PM »

The NJ Senate race is only the primary (both D & R unopposed). Special elections outside of November haven't been done for legislative races since the late 1980s, the party appointee serves until/continue to serve that election.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,730


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #238 on: June 04, 2019, 07:36:45 PM »

The NJ Senate race is only the primary (both D & R unopposed). Special elections outside of November haven't been done for legislative races since the late 1980s, the party appointee serves until/continue to serve that election.

What a waste then. Unopposed special state legislative election primaries are fully pointless to run and almost invariably going to result in extremely low turnout.
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #239 on: June 04, 2019, 10:17:50 PM »

Placer came in big for Kiley. I'm guessing these were absentees that were mailed in early.

17,576 61.4% Kiley
11,028 38.6% Dahle
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #240 on: June 04, 2019, 10:20:21 PM »

Sacramento came in big for Kiley as well.

11,918 71.4% Kiley
4,766 28.6% Dahle

Modoc in big for Dahle

1,317 84.5% Dahle
204 13.1% Kiley

Totals:
29,698 63.4% Kiley
17,111 36.6% Dahle

Edit: El Dorado decently for Kiley, maybe not as much as I would've guessed.

14,720 55.1% Kiley
11,975 44.9% Dahle

Total

45,566 60.2% Kiley
30,151 39.8% Dahle

Again, results are still early. If it's a close race by the end of the night, we might not know for a week or so. Ballots have until Friday to arrive at their respective county offices if they were postmarked by today.
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #241 on: June 04, 2019, 10:24:21 PM »

Plumas went big for Dahle as could be expected.

1,435 68.7% Dahle
655 31.3% Kiley
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #242 on: June 04, 2019, 10:30:53 PM »

Nevada big for Dahle

10,040 67.1% Dahle
4,924 32.9% Kiley

Total

68,099 57.4% Kiley
50,575 42.6% Dahle

Siskyou also big for Dahle

3,942 68.4% Dahle
1,821 31.6% Kiley

Totals
54,080 53.2% Kiley
47,536 46.8% Dahle
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #243 on: June 04, 2019, 10:36:57 PM »

Oh Jesus Shasta

14,282 80% Dahle
3,572 20% Kiley


Dahle is now in the lead
Totals:
61,818 51.7% Dahle
57,652 48.3% Kiley

Sierra went for Dahle
533 67% Dahle
263 33% Kiley
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #244 on: June 04, 2019, 10:43:05 PM »

SD 33, entirely within LA County (to replace Ricardo Lara)

5.2% Reporting
18,684 69.2% Gonzalez (D)
8,304 30.8% Guerrero (R)

My posts will be back to SD 1
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #245 on: June 04, 2019, 10:45:15 PM »

Lassen also went big for Dahle. It's his home county.

2,686 80.9% Dahle
636 19.1% Kiley

Totals:
64,546 52.5% Dahle
58,300 47.5% Kiley
 
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #246 on: June 04, 2019, 11:15:41 PM »

Alpine County is up to 80% reporting

126 73.3% Dahle
46 26.7% Kiley

Totals:
64,956 52.6% Dahle
58,435 47.4% Kiley
Supposedly 54.1% reporting. Not sure how much I believe the reporting percentage. In the March primary, there were 194,756 total voters, including 49,000 for the legitimate Dem. Right now we're at about 123,500 give or take.
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #247 on: June 04, 2019, 11:28:54 PM »

Alpine County is up to 80% reporting

126 73.3% Dahle
46 26.7% Kiley

Totals:
64,956 52.6% Dahle
58,435 47.4% Kiley
Supposedly 54.1% reporting. Not sure how much I believe the reporting percentage. In the March primary, there were 194,756 total voters, including 49,000 for the legitimate Dem. Right now we're at about 123,500 give or take.

It's now up to 60.7% reporting district wide with a negligible vote change.

65,102 52.6% Dahle
58,636 47.4% Kiley
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #248 on: June 04, 2019, 11:38:55 PM »

Democrats probably decided to be idiots and sit SD-1 election out completely. Well, they are likely to have a right-wing nutjob Dahle representing them..
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #249 on: June 05, 2019, 12:07:01 AM »

Probably my last update for the night:

65,956 52.8% Dahle
58,902 47.2% Kiley
66% reporting

It's definitely looking like Dems sat this one out, which is disappointing. Not sure if they would've swung it for Kiley, but jeez people, at least vote for the best of the Republicans (whoever you think that may be) or the one who's more likely to be replaced by a Dem (0.5% chance vs 0% chance).
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 ... 60  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 10 queries.