State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[smoltchanov]

Probably my last update for the night:

65,956 52.8% Dahle
58,902 47.2% Kiley
66% reporting

It's definitely looking like Dems sat this one out, which is disappointing. Not sure if they would've swung it for Kiley, but jeez people, at least vote for the best of the Republicans (whoever you think that may be) or the one who's more likely to be replaced by a Dem (0.5% chance vs 0% chance).

One more confirmation of the fact, that continuing ideologisation and polarisation of American politics makes it more and more idiotic with every passig year.... Reasonably sure, that 2020 will be even worse...

[smoltchanov]

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Rule 3 of Specials: Hispanic vote drops off precariously during any non-november election. We have seen this already this years in Texas specials, saw it before 2018 in California specials, saw it in the Texas primary...its only Nevada that sometimes bucks the trend if the national parties are pouring in cash for a certain election.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final:

Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
70,556   
53.1%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
62,259   
46.9%

Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
26,343   
69.0%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
11,835   
31.0%

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Final:

Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
70,556   
53.1%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
62,259   
46.9%

Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
26,343   
69.0%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
11,835   
31.0%

I’d like to note that there’s still ballots to be counted in both races, but I think it’s safe to call both.

[DINGO Joe]

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Like Oryx said, it's not remarkable, it's pretty typical.

[smoltchanov]

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Like Oryx said, it's not remarkable, it's pretty typical.

When party candidate doubles his party Presidential candidate's percentages in his/her race - it's remarkable. At least - for me.

[Annatar]

I'm not a big believer in the idea special election swings tell us much about what will happen in a general election, especially in a Presidential year but for what its worth, the average swing in the 29 special elections since the midterms where both parties together got at least 90% of the vote has been 6.1% towards the dems compared to Trump-Clinton and 0.8% compared to Obama-Romney, the average in the 2017-2018 cycle was 11.2% vs Clinton's number and 5.9% compared to Obama according to DailyKos. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dXQhlzCAw05fC7P21eCivdfLOB-F3nykPVRPzG49U9g/edit#gid=0

For a more exact comparison, in the first 29 special elections post Nov 8 2016 which went through to August of 2017 the average swing vs Clinton was 12.5% in the dems favour and 9.6% vs Obama. Again I'm not sure this really means anything but it might be a marker of reduced democratic energy.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Today we have the special primary for Alabama HD 74. The Republican Primary is hotly contested; the democratic primary consists of one candidate running unopposed. Results will be here: http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/countyResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001040&cid=03

Additionally we have the special general for Maine HD 45. Democrats are expected to hold the seat.

Polls close at 8 ET

[Politician]

https://mobile.twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1138604260415983616

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

7% in:

Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
10.42%
5
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
2.08%
1
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
2.08%
1
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.17%
2
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
60.42%
29
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
20.83%
10

[Kevinstat]

https://mobile.twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1138604260415983616

"All I know is he's won, per the local party. Maine doesn't post SOS results, but ideally I'll find numbers within the next hour" ( https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1138604721185394688 )

Perhaps it was this tweet from House Majority Leader Matt Moonen: https://twitter.com/mattmoonen/status/1138603403712651264 .

I think he did that with at least one of the earlier special elections this year.  I wish people would just wait until the actual numbers came in, but of course if the victory is underwhelming the party would want the victory to be the "breaking news."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final:

Percent
Votes
Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
22.30%
618
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
6.93%
192
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
11.58%
321
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.15%
115
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
43.96%
1,218
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
11.08%
307
   
2,771

[Kevinstat]

According to the Portland Press Herald, Moriarty (D) carried Cumberland (like 82% of the district based on 2010 census figures) 1,221 votes (61.73%) to 757 (38.27%). They don't have results from the Gray portion of the district (most of Gray is in another district), but while the Gray portion does seem to be a bit more Republican it's clear Moriarty has won, most likely north of 60%.

www.pressherald.com/2019/06/11/local-election-results-for-southern-maine/

[Kevinstat]

According to the Portland Press Herald, Moriarty (D) carried Cumberland (like 82% of the district based on 2010 census figures) 1,221 votes (61.73%) to 757 (38.27%). They don't have results from the Gray portion of the district (most of Gray is in another district), but while the Gray portion does seem to be a bit more Republican it's clear Moriarty has won, most likely north of 60%.

www.pressherald.com/2019/06/11/local-election-results-for-southern-maine/

portion of Gray in the district (unofficial, of course everything's unofficial until the losing candidate indicates that he will not request a recount, although that may have already happened): Moriarty (D) 68 (59.13%), Hughes (R) 47 (40.87%).

Overall: Moriarty (D) 1289 (61.59%), Hughes (R) 804 (38.41%).

[MaxQue]

Final:

Percent
Votes
Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
22.30%
618
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
6.93%
192
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
11.58%
321
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.15%
115
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
43.96%
1,218
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
11.08%
307
   
2,771

Fritz should be in bold too, this is Alabama, so there is a runoff.

[smoltchanov]

Republicans hold both FL-07 and FL-38. Result in FL-38:

Randy Maggard REP 9,615 55.58%

Kelly Smith DEM 7,684 44.42%

may be considered rather good for Democrats despite loss, result in HD-07:

Jason Shoaf REP 11,604 71.3%

Ryan Terrell DEM 4,670 28.7%

- surely not, as Democratic candidate managed to underperform even HRC in this rural, ancestrally Democratic, but solidly conservative district. Probably - he simply doesn't fit it....

Excellent paper on HD-07 and it's peculiar politics is here:

https://mcimaps.com/hd7-2019-special-election-the-last-of-floridas-conservative-democratic-districts/

In some cases it's ridiculous: very rural Liberty county, with about 70% Democratic registration and all-Democratic for county offices, went almost 4-1 for Republican candidate (and almost equally divided by registration Lafayette, which is majority-Democratic on county level: 7-1). Democrats continue to crater in rural South. They are lucky, that South became less rural of late.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There are no further state leg specials until August.

[skbl17]

Special election for GA-HD-71 to be held on September 3 due to the resignation of Rep. David Stover. The eastern Coweta-based district is solidly Republican (it was R+[some number greater than 45] in 2018).

[Ebsy]

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/st-louis-state-rep-bruce-franks-says-he-s-leaving/article_0ff62be2-8182-5a64-8cbd-8f48c51239e5.html

Representative Bruce Franks is resigning on the 31, currently represents a House district that covers most of Downtown St. Louis and some neighborhoods north. Heavily black and Democratic. Special election should be in November.

Hopefully the Hubbards don't manage to stage a come back here, one would think two seats on the Board of Aldermen would be enough.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

August 6th Elections:

WA State Senate 40 (1st Round): Lovelett (D) and Miller (R) advanced
WA State House District 13, Position 2 (1st Round): Yabarra (R) and Verhey (D) advanced

Schedule for the late summer and fall. Primaries and uncontested races are not included.

8/20: Pennsylvania House 85, South Carolina House 19
8/27: California State Assembly District 1 (1st Round)
9/3: Georgia House 71 (1st Round)
10/1: South Carolina House 84, Georgia House 71 (Runoff)
10/8: New Hampshire House 9th Rockingham District

11/5: VOTE-O-RAMA!!!

Alabama: House 42
Arkansas: House 36
California: Assembly 1 (Runoff)
Missouri: House 22, 36, 74, 78, 99, 158
New Jersey: Senate 1
New York: Senate 57
Texas: House 100
Washington: Runoffs for Senate 40 and House 13, Position 2


11/12: Alabama House 74

[Ebsy]

It's crazy how many members have ditched the Missouri House of Reps. I knew things were bad but it must be a lot worse to serve than I thought.

[libertpaulian]

Any pickup opportunities for either party?

[Politician]

Any pickup opportunities for either party?

Here's how I would rate the races:
PA-HD-85: Safe R
SC-HD-19: Safe R

CA-AD-1: Safe R

GA-HD-71: Safe R

SC-HD-84: Safe R

NH-HD-Rockingham 8: Tossup

AL-HD-42: Safe R
AR-HD-36: Safe D
MO-HD-22/36/74/78: Safe D
MO-HD-99: Tossup
MO-HD-158: Safe R
NJ-SD-1: Lean D
NY-SD-57: Safe R
TX-SD-100: Safe D
WA-SD-40: Safe D
WA-HD-13B: Safe R

[lfromnj]

Any pickup opportunities for either party?

Some Texas GOP rep retired, very unlikely pickup by Democrats.