State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Ebsy]

Any pickup opportunities for either party?

MO-HD 99 is drawing a lot of resources from both parties. I would say Democrats are slightly favored to pick it up.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results:

SC: https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/96549/Web02-state.228807/#/
PA: https://electionreturns.pa.gov/

Nothing in yet

[ON Progressive]

Just absentee vote in SC so far:

Carrie Counton (D) 40
Patrick Haddon (R) 36

This does indicate an R blowout in all likelihood given the Democratic lean of absentees (the state Senate special election in this area in March had a massive Dem lead in absentees)

[ON Progressive]

Everything just dumped in at once:

Patrick Haddon (R) 61%
Carrie Counton (D) 39%

Pretty much what you'd expect, really. Counton winning 2 precincts is actually pretty impressive given that zero of the precincts in this seat voted for Tina Belge in the SD-06 special in March.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Everything just dumped in at once:

Patrick Haddon (R) 61%
Carrie Counton (D) 39%

Pretty much what you'd expect, really. Counton winning 2 precincts is actually pretty impressive given that zero of the precincts in this seat voted for Tina Belge in the SD-06 special in March.

Less than 10% turnout is depressing.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

45% of PA-85 in:

Rowe - 66.75% (2927 votes)

Rager-Kay - 33.25% (1458 votes)

[Lisa's voting Biden]

65% of PA-85 in

Rowe - 62.7% (4159 votes)

Rager-Kay - 37.3% (2474 votes)

[Lisa's voting Biden]

100% of PA-85 in

Rowe - 62.62% (6489 votes)

Rager-Kay - 35.79% (3874 votes)

FINAL: R +26.83

By County
Snyder
Rowe - 72.92 % (3035 votes)

Rager-Kay - 27.08% (1127 votes)

Union
Rowe - 55.70% (3454 votes)

Rager-Kay - 44.30% (2747 votes)

Previous Results
2018
R +35.4
2014
R +38.4

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Certainly a disappointing night.

[soundchaser]

Certainly a disappointing night.

Not *that* disappointing — that’s a pretty sizable swing in PA. Bodes well for next year.

[Duke of York]

Certainly a disappointing night.

Its not disappointing at all. Both of these were very red districts

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Certainly a disappointing night.

A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Certainly a disappointing night.

A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Certainly a disappointing night.

A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.

What did you honestly expect with two safe R districts? I'd save that energy for tossup races.

[Annatar]

The dems ran 3% ahead of Clinton in District 19 in SC and 8.2% in District 85 in PA, overall medium sized swings. So far we have had 34 special elections with both parties since the midterms and the dems have run 5.6% ahead of Clinton's number in them, in 2018 in the 49 special elections where both parties stood, dems ran 11.2% ahead of Clinton and of the 68 elections in 2017, dems also ran 11.2% ahead of Clinton.

[wbrocks67]

The fact that the PA special ran ahead of even 2018 bodes very well.

[ON Progressive]

Certainly a disappointing night.

A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.

What did you honestly expect with two safe R districts? I'd save that energy for tossup races.

Especially since the PA district has two counties that have literally never voted D since the Civil War.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Follow Results for the CA Special tonight here: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-assembly/district/1

If no one gets 50%, the top two go to a runoff.

[Dr. Arch]

Follow Results for the CA Special tonight here: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-assembly/district/1

If no one gets 50%, the top two go to a runoff.

First results coming in (5.3% reporting):

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
   6,707   
42.5%

   Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
   5,767   
36.5%

   Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
   2,010   
12.7%

   Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
   525   
3.3%

   Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
   786   
5.0%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

9% in:

Candidate   Votes
Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
11,942   
33.9%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
12,443   
35.4%
Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
8,253   
23.5%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
945   
2.7%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
1,594   
4.5%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

13% in:

   Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,835   
34.2%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
13,595   
36.3%
Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
8,386   
22.4%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
962   
2.6%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
1,708   
4.6%

[Dr. Arch]

24.5% in:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
   24,132   
40.9%
   Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
   20,976   
35.5%
   Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
   9,817   
16.6%
   Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
   1,223   
2.1%
   Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
   2,921   
4.9%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PROJECTION:

Candidate   Votes
Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
24,899   
39.9%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
22,772   
36.5%
Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
10,061   
16.1%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,282   
2.1%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,410   
5.5%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
27,786   
39.1%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
25,669   
36.2%
Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
12,298   
17.3%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,305   
1.8%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,943   
5.6%

This is a tough district for a Dem to win, but these results point to anything being possible in Round 2. The Democrat won the most votes in this first round, and 5/9 counties went either for the Democrat or the third-place candidate. Republicans are clearly disunified and split. Should be an interesting runoff.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Final:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
27,786   
39.1%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
25,669   
36.2%
Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
12,298   
17.3%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,305   
1.8%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,943   
5.6%

This is a tough district for a Dem to win, but these results point to anything being possible in Round 2. The Democrat won the most votes in this first round, and 5/9 counties went either for the Democrat or the third-place candidate. Republicans are clearly disunified and split. Should be an interesting runoff.

Voted for Cox by 22.4% and Trump by 20.6. It's Titanium R. The runoff will be fairly straightforward and Dahle will win by 25-26 points.