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October 20, 2019, 11:12:42 am
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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 12614 times)
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Fubart Solman
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« on: March 26, 2019, 11:28:09 pm »
« edited: March 26, 2019, 11:31:13 pm by BeTo In DiSaRrAy »

There seems to be a lull in returns; I'll work to add in actual vote numbers as well as updated percentages by county.

Alpine has a bit over 100 votes in. Pflueger leads there, as is expected for Alpine. Overall, it's 15-40-24% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 24-63-38 votes Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

El Dorado is still 35-28-19 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. No update on reporting either. 11,372-8,853-6,085 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Lassen: no votes yet.

Modoc: 9-10-70 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 146-173-1,184 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Not shocking.

Nevada: 10-40-35 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 2,255-8,754-7,655 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is from Truckee, located in Nevada County.

Placer: 41-26-16 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 13,761-8,696-5,233 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Kiley's home county. It's larger than a fair number of the counties in Dahle's district, but the senate district does not include Roseville.

Plumas claims 100% reporting. 14-25-45 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 737-1,265-2,326 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Sacramento claims nearly 100% reporting, but earlier caveats about Sac County are still in play. The portions of Sac County in this senate district are the more conservative (though somewhat trending Dem) parts of the county. 45-26-10 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 9,022-5,213-1,972 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Shasta: 16-14-53 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 2,658-2,306-8,651 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Sierra: 14-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 126-244-424 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Claims 100% reporting

Siskiyou claims about 50% reporting. 11-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 837-1,905-3,421 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Current Totals: 28.8%-26.5%-27.8% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 41,206-37,940-39,726 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Narrow lead for Kiley and Dahle, but still very much a three-way race between them and Pflueger for the top two spots.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2019, 11:39:45 pm »

Lassen just dumped a big load of Dahle votes. 6-12-71 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 243-460-2,789 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

The current standings overall are 28.7%-26.5%-27.9% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 41,374-38,096-40,200 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is about 2,000 votes down.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2019, 01:20:38 am »

Not much has changed since Wulfric's last update:

Brian D. Dahle (Party Preference: REP) 42,807 28.7%

Kevin Kiley (Party Preference: REP) 42,302 28.3%


Silke Pflueger (Party Preference: DEM) 38,979 26.1%

Rex Hime (Party Preference: REP) 13,443 9.0%

Steve Baird (Party Preference: DEM) 8,815 5.9%

Theodore Dziuba (Party Preference: REP) 2,979 2.0%

Kiley and Dahle are currently in the lead, but Pflueger may still have a shot depending on late arriving ballots. I'll try to keep you folks updated once a day or so.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2019, 11:04:01 am »

The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

Hard to say, since like I said, itís the most white, rural and Republican senate district in the state. Itíll probably buck expected trends.

This isnít ďAvalancheĒ Ami Beraís US House district, thatís for sure. I wonít say itís over until itís over, but the Pflueger campaign should probably be looking at packing things up.

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.

California Democrats struggle with winning Clinton +5 assembly seats, let alone one Trump won by double digits. This will be another snoozer.

I think it will be ďsurprisingly closeĒ to outsiders. Aka 54-46 if itís a Dem vs a Rep in the general.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2019, 10:53:51 am »

The Sacramento Bee reports that counting in CAís 1st Senate District should be done by April 4th, one week from today. Ballots are likely still coming in.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2019, 12:29:35 pm »

Final results from CAís 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}:

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2019, 11:47:36 am »

Final results from CAís 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}:

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.

As i said earlier - Lean Killey if Democrats are smart and will choose "slightly better" Republican candidate in run-off, Lean Dahle if they are dumb and will stay home "en masse"...

Yeah, my parents and I (2 Dems and a RINO whoís about to go No Party Pref) are going to vote for Kiley. Iíd rather have our assemblyman than someone elseís as my senator. Plus Iíll get another special election.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2019, 01:06:33 pm »

Just got my ballot in the mail for the runoff for Californiaís First Senate District. The election is on June 4th. Havenít opened my ballot yet, but I know that itís between two Republicans. Iím going to vote for Kevin Kiley because heís my local assemblyman (donít want a senator from Lassen County) and I want another special election or two. Kileyís assembly district has a slight chance (read 0.1%) of flipping, while Brian Dahle's (Kileyís opponent) district wonít flip.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2019, 08:59:52 pm »

Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. Iím voting Kiley since itís more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2019, 11:32:57 am »

Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. Iím voting Kiley since itís more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2019, 03:18:42 pm »

Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. Iím voting Kiley since itís more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.

Given the district - not surprising. Rooting for Kiley. But - one question: until not so long ago this territory used to elect Democrats not infrequently. What happened? Were these Democrats rather conservative or what?

Iím not an expert, but I think that there was a lot of logging going on in places like Lassen and Plumas Counties. They were some of the best counties for the CA Dems back maybe 40-50 years ago like you mentioned.

Polls in California close at 8 PM local time, 11 PM Eastern. (6 hours and 40 or so minutes)
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2019, 10:17:50 pm »

Placer came in big for Kiley. I'm guessing these were absentees that were mailed in early.

17,576 61.4% Kiley
11,028 38.6% Dahle
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2019, 10:20:21 pm »

Sacramento came in big for Kiley as well.

11,918 71.4% Kiley
4,766 28.6% Dahle

Modoc in big for Dahle

1,317 84.5% Dahle
204 13.1% Kiley

Totals:
29,698 63.4% Kiley
17,111 36.6% Dahle

Edit: El Dorado decently for Kiley, maybe not as much as I would've guessed.

14,720 55.1% Kiley
11,975 44.9% Dahle

Total

45,566 60.2% Kiley
30,151 39.8% Dahle

Again, results are still early. If it's a close race by the end of the night, we might not know for a week or so. Ballots have until Friday to arrive at their respective county offices if they were postmarked by today.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #13 on: June 04, 2019, 10:24:21 pm »

Plumas went big for Dahle as could be expected.

1,435 68.7% Dahle
655 31.3% Kiley
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #14 on: June 04, 2019, 10:30:53 pm »

Nevada big for Dahle

10,040 67.1% Dahle
4,924 32.9% Kiley

Total

68,099 57.4% Kiley
50,575 42.6% Dahle

Siskyou also big for Dahle

3,942 68.4% Dahle
1,821 31.6% Kiley

Totals
54,080 53.2% Kiley
47,536 46.8% Dahle
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2019, 10:36:57 pm »

Oh Jesus Shasta

14,282 80% Dahle
3,572 20% Kiley


Dahle is now in the lead
Totals:
61,818 51.7% Dahle
57,652 48.3% Kiley

Sierra went for Dahle
533 67% Dahle
263 33% Kiley
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2019, 10:43:05 pm »

SD 33, entirely within LA County (to replace Ricardo Lara)

5.2% Reporting
18,684 69.2% Gonzalez (D)
8,304 30.8% Guerrero (R)

My posts will be back to SD 1
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #17 on: June 04, 2019, 10:45:15 pm »

Lassen also went big for Dahle. It's his home county.

2,686 80.9% Dahle
636 19.1% Kiley

Totals:
64,546 52.5% Dahle
58,300 47.5% Kiley
 
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #18 on: June 04, 2019, 11:15:41 pm »

Alpine County is up to 80% reporting

126 73.3% Dahle
46 26.7% Kiley

Totals:
64,956 52.6% Dahle
58,435 47.4% Kiley
Supposedly 54.1% reporting. Not sure how much I believe the reporting percentage. In the March primary, there were 194,756 total voters, including 49,000 for the legitimate Dem. Right now we're at about 123,500 give or take.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #19 on: June 04, 2019, 11:28:54 pm »

Alpine County is up to 80% reporting

126 73.3% Dahle
46 26.7% Kiley

Totals:
64,956 52.6% Dahle
58,435 47.4% Kiley
Supposedly 54.1% reporting. Not sure how much I believe the reporting percentage. In the March primary, there were 194,756 total voters, including 49,000 for the legitimate Dem. Right now we're at about 123,500 give or take.

It's now up to 60.7% reporting district wide with a negligible vote change.

65,102 52.6% Dahle
58,636 47.4% Kiley
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #20 on: June 05, 2019, 12:07:01 am »

Probably my last update for the night:

65,956 52.8% Dahle
58,902 47.2% Kiley
66% reporting

It's definitely looking like Dems sat this one out, which is disappointing. Not sure if they would've swung it for Kiley, but jeez people, at least vote for the best of the Republicans (whoever you think that may be) or the one who's more likely to be replaced by a Dem (0.5% chance vs 0% chance).
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2019, 11:00:32 am »

Final:

Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
70,556   
53.1%

Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
62,259   
46.9%

Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
26,343   
69.0%

Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
11,835   
31.0%


Iíd like to note that thereís still ballots to be counted in both races, but I think itís safe to call both.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2019, 03:46:14 pm »

Canít believe I missed this one. I blame the issues Iíve been having getting the paper delivered.

But yeah, itís titanium R in the general. So Dahleís sister/wife/daughter/whatever will in all likelihood be the next assemblywoman.
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