State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Duke of York]

Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.

That also depends on who they nominate

[Duke of York]

Tonight: CT HD 130

Polls close at 8 ET

It probably won’t even be close. The district contains downtown Bridgeport

[Duke of York]

Certainly a disappointing night.

Its not disappointing at all. Both of these were very red districts

[Duke of York]

Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.

Over the Georgia result are you serious? Thats a ruby red district

[Duke of York]

http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.

[Duke of York]

It’s so weird, you would expect Dems to be getting slaughtered given the polls and VA/NJ.

Special elections usually have very low turnout that causes weird results.

state legislative specials are quite predicative of the national mood.

[Duke of York]

Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.

[Duke of York]

are Democrats favored in all three specials in Pennsylvania today?

[Duke of York]

So Democrats overperformed by around 40 points.

What happened that they overpreformed so much? Did Republicans not show up?

[Duke of York]

PA Dems continue to be on beast mode. Huge overperformances last night - the fact that they all even outperformed *Shapiro* is pretty incredible

HD-32
2020 prez: D+26
2022 gov: D+43
2022 HD: D+72 (vs. Green candidate, no R on ballot)
2023 special: D+50

HD-34
2020 prez: D+62
2022 gov: D+73
2023 special: D+76

HD-35
2020 prez: D+16
2022 gov: D+37
2022 HD: D+32
2023 special: D+49

These are margins that say Republicans didn't even make an effort here especially in HD-35 and also that Democrats remain active and are not asleep at the wheel.

[Duke of York]

Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.

I heard Democrats used messaging as the the three elections deciding control of the house and that may have helped with turnout. If you tell people their vote will matter they have a higher chance of turning out.

[Duke of York]

Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.

I heard Democrats used messaging as the the three elections deciding control of the house and that may have helped with turnout. If you tell people their vote will matter they have a higher chance of turning out.

Yeah, from what I can tell, Allegheny Dems put a ton of effort into these specials and didn't take them for granted. The results speak for themselves IMO.

agreed. It doesn't explain the lack of turnout by Republicans though. Democrats are clearly still engaged post midterms.

[Duke of York]

Three specials in Connecticut were held today.

The Dem won CT-100 by 37.7, when Biden won it by only 32.2

They won the other two as well. CT-6 was a Democrat and independent.

CT 148 they underperformed by a few points.

[Duke of York]

Interested to see the margin in the Delco state house special election tomorrow. It was Biden 62-37 and Fetterman 64% I think but Dems have not taken it lightly - Shapiro cut a video, Biden released an endorsement, and Dems have spent $1M+ on their candidate (Rs have not spent anywhere close to that). The last two Dems in this seat were mired by scandal so I would assume it's more of a better be safe than sorry situation. But at the same time, PA Dems have also just been on their game - they put lots of money and resources into the Allegheny specials in February when they were all safe D seats too

I expect the margin might be a little lower due to higher Republican turnout but Democrats are framing this very well and it would be a massive upset if they lost.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1686544753406492672

I don't think this guy can win a closely divided district like this.

[Duke of York]

Also seems likely that if Virginia dems wouldve actually fielded a candidate in their special last night, it would've been a pretty big overperformance too.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1696687817613529164

why didn't they field a candidate here?

[Duke of York]

why didn't they field a candidate here?

Nobody wanted to play the role of sacrificial lamb?

no general or special election election should be unopposed. Get a random person to run in a district as red as this. have it be a high school senior for all I care.

[Duke of York]

Seems like Berger will basically match Biden with final mail-ins, so I'd call this a win. Incredibly low turnout, but Dems will obviously like to see that this was nowhere near Hochul or even Schumer levels.

That's all I really wanted to see out of this special election. I don't know what it truly says about New York swinging and trending right or not, but the 2022 results probably won't be the norm going forward, even if there is still a rightward swing.

I think that was an outlier due to Hochul's dreadful campaign.

[Duke of York]

PA special election coming this Tuesday.

From 2022:
Requests were DEM 78.1 / REP 12.6 / IND 8.8
Returns were DEM 78.1 / REP 12.3 / IND 9.3

Final result in 2022 was D 63.6% - R 36.4%

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1702115780706422888

Very impressive for a special election. With a one seat majority you can't take any chances. In the three specials early this year Democrats framed them as deciding control of the house and it worked. Turnout was decent.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1702115143209885751

wow. Its as if hes not even trying. money isn't everything but with numbers like that Id say this is slightly lean D.

[Duke of York]

Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

The Dobbs effect

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/chwolfson/status/1703800672968224987

Great news. should be an easy hold as a good portion of Pittsburgh is in the district including the neighborhoods of Lawrenceville, Strip District and Morningside. the suburbs of  Etna and Millvale are blue leaning. Shaler township is very competitive. Trump won it very narrowly.

[Duke of York]

The PA one is looking to finish about 65-35 Dem.

It was never in much doubt given part of  Pittsburgh is the district but a nice over performance.

[Duke of York]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.

what? Where are you getting this notion from?

[Duke of York]

Two Democrats in the Michigan State House won elections for mayor yesterday. On the one hand, this means that the Democrats will lose their functioning majority in the chamber for a couple of months, but it'll also mean that we'll have two special elections. Both of the seats are Safe D, IIRC.

when will the specials be?