State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Drew]

WI AD-64 results:

Kenosha County (vast majority of the district): http://www.co.kenosha.wi.us/1405/Current-Election-Results

Racine County: https://racinecounty.com/government/county-clerk/election-information/election-results

Polls close 8 CDT

[Drew]

A special election for Wisconsin AD-89 to replace the resigning John Nygren (R) has been scheduled for 4/6/21, the same day as the spring elections in the state.  The primary would be 2/16/21 in alignment with the statewide primary day.  Safe R.

https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/WIGOV/2020/12/18/file_attachments/1630860/EO099-SpecialElection89th.pdf

[Drew]

WI has two specials on April 6. I am in SD-13, Fitzgerald’s senate district, and AD-89 up north is also open following Nygren’s resignation. 89 is safe R, but something weird is happening in SD-13. I live here, and there is an independent “Trump Conservative” party member named Spencer Zimmerman who is running. I doubt he gets more than 2% of the vote, but if there is a high Dem turnout in the Dane county portion here, as well as an unexpected protest vote, there is a tiny chance they could win it. For now, Safe R, unless something weird happens.

Zimmerman is a perennial candidate who I don’t believe even lives in the district.  He seems to consistently get around 2% of the vote when he runs as a 3rd party/independent.  He doesn’t seem likely to significantly affect the outcome.  Pretty close to Safe R I’d say.

[Drew]

WI has a special today for an Assembly seat which includes a portion of Dane along with mostly conservative rural areas.

The special election in AD-37 happens today.  It was 56-41 R in 2020, which was a D swing from 62-38 R in 2016 (the 2018 race was uncontested as the D was kicked off the ballot).  The district includes a portion of Dane County including DeForest, Columbia County (only Columbus), and portions of Jefferson and Dodge.  The Dem will have to run it up in Dane and Columbia in order to have any chance at an upset.  There is an ideologically conservative independent candidate from DeForest who got 3% in 2020 and is running again.  The D and R are both from Columbus.

[Drew]

WI has a special today for an Assembly seat which includes a portion of Dane along with mostly conservative rural areas.

The special election in AD-37 happens today.  It was 56-41 R in 2020, which was a D swing from 62-38 R in 2016 (the 2018 race was uncontested as the D was kicked off the ballot).  The district includes a portion of Dane County including DeForest, Columbia County (only Columbus), and portions of Jefferson and Dodge.  The Dem will have to run it up in Dane and Columbia in order to have any chance at an upset.  There is an ideologically conservative independent candidate from DeForest who got 3% in 2020 and is running again.  The D and R are both from Columbus.

Penterman (R) leading Adams (D) roughly 50-48 with all of Dane/Columbia/Dodge reporting.  It's only the strongly R Jefferson remaining.  There won't be an upset, but we'll see what the final margin looks like.

[Drew]

WI has a special today for an Assembly seat which includes a portion of Dane along with mostly conservative rural areas.

The special election in AD-37 happens today.  It was 56-41 R in 2020, which was a D swing from 62-38 R in 2016 (the 2018 race was uncontested as the D was kicked off the ballot).  The district includes a portion of Dane County including DeForest, Columbia County (only Columbus), and portions of Jefferson and Dodge.  The Dem will have to run it up in Dane and Columbia in order to have any chance at an upset.  There is an ideologically conservative independent candidate from DeForest who got 3% in 2020 and is running again.  The D and R are both from Columbus.

Penterman (R) leading Adams (D) roughly 50-48 with all of Dane/Columbia/Dodge reporting.  It's only the strongly R Jefferson remaining.  There won't be an upset, but we'll see what the final margin looks like.

I just checked Jefferson County’s website, and Penterman has 1,089 votes to Adams (D) 675, with one small precinct in Watertown still out. The two-person percentage should be about 55-45 when all said and done. Adams also won Waterloo 149-113, which I believe Trump won.

Jefferson all in now, looks like 54-44 R overall.  So a bit of an overperformance for D's despite the loss.