State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[LimoLiberal]

I'm not sure if I like the early numbers so far... Iovino doing better than Clinton, but much worse than Lamb in some Allegheny precincts.

I'm looking at this map for reference: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

[LimoLiberal]

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[LimoLiberal]

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>

Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.

To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.

He was referring to the special election.

How do you know this? He never specified.

1) Lamb had TWO 2018 "performances", the special in March and the November general, so you're confusing everybody here.
2) I'm referring to his performance in the special because that district contained a wider portion of Southern Allegheny county (thus more precincts to compare to SD-37)

[LimoLiberal]

I think Iovino would need a more than 2000 vote margin out of Allegheny to feel safe. Washington county in a comparable 2015 special netted 2000 votes for Reschenthaler (R), and he won district-wide by 10.

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/CountyBreakDownResults?officeId=0&districtId=59&ElectionID=50&ElectionType=S&IsActive=0

[LimoLiberal]

Unless something goes horribly wrong, Iovino has this. Not enough votes in Washington county to make up for remaining Dem votes in Mt. Lebanon, Upper St. Clair, and Bethel Park.

[LimoLiberal]

There's a special election today for Kentucky Senate District 26 in Jefferson and Oldham Counties. It's a Trump +12 and Beshear +10 district in the northern Louisville suburbs. Doctor Karen Berg (D) is facing Businessman Bill Ferko (R). Berg ran for this seat in 2018 but lost 52-46 to incumbent Ernie Harris (R) who stepped down this April.

The highly contested U.S. Senate primary on the Democratic side as well as general D enthusiasm (especially in the suburbs) might give Berg a boost. She has the Facebook enthusiasm with nearly 2x as many likes as Ferko. I'd rate this race a tossup.

Polls close at 6 PM.

[LimoLiberal]

Ferko (R) leading 79-21 in the Oldham county election day vote. Could portend a blowout win, but I bet the election day electorate was significantly more conservative than absentee ballots.

[LimoLiberal]

Ferko (R) leading 79-21 in the Oldham county election day vote. Could portend a blowout win, but I bet the election day electorate was significantly more conservative than absentee ballots.

Ok, I got my hands on the actual numbers from Oldham county.

Democrat – Karen Berg has 1,124 votes (21%)

Republican – Bill Ferko has 4,118 votes (79%)

This is only the Oldham county in-person early and election day vote. We're missing the Jefferson county election day, in-person, and mail-in as well as the Oldham county mail-in. But still, things look pretty good for Ferko, no? Trump only won Oldham county 62-31!

No. No. No.

According to this article (https://www.oldhamera.com/content/county-clerk-releases-partial-numbers-primary-election), there were 20,000 mail-in ballots requested in Oldham county. Nearly 4x the number of ballots counted so far. That doesn't even include the tens of thousands of ballots from Jefferson county yet to be counted.

I've already seen tweets touting how well Ferko is doing and it makes me want to scream. Not because Ferko can't win, because he certainly can and he's arguably the favorite. But when you have 5,000 ballots counted in a race with at least 30,000 more ballots to count it is incredibly irresponsible to act like those ballots are representative. Especially when there's an emerging divide between Democrats and Republicans on the use of mail-ins.

In conclusion, we're f***ed in November if mail-in ballot use continues at this rate. People who should know something about how unrepresentative results from different voting methods can be are getting caught up in the excitement of Election Night.

Anyways, I have no idea who will win this race. Talk to me in a week!

[LimoLiberal]

The in-person vote just dropped from Jefferson county in KY SD-26.

Berg (D) gained 460, Ferko (R) gained 484.

Ferko now leads 4602-1584, or 75% to 25%.

The vast majority of votes still uncounted with mail-ins not to be opened until 6/30.

[LimoLiberal]

The in-person vote just dropped from Jefferson county in KY SD-26.

Berg (D) gained 460, Ferko (R) gained 484.

Ferko now leads 4602-1584, or 75% to 25%.

The vast majority of votes still uncounted with mail-ins not to be opened until 6/30.

The in person vote in Jefferson was that small?  The Jefferson portion of the district is larger than Oldham.

I believe the Oldham number contains both election day and in-person early voting. My guess is the Jefferson number is just the election day.

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1276171990286635015

With these numbers there are at least 16,000 mail-in ballots from Jefferson in SD-26 and likely more.

[LimoLiberal]

BREAKING: Oldham County mail-ins have been counted



According to the Facebook post, the final results in the county were as following.

Berg (D) - 9738 (46.7%)
Ferko (R) - 11101 (53.2%)

Adding the election day votes from Jefferson County already counted, the margin becomes

Berg (D) - 10198 (46.8%)
Ferko (R) - 11585 (53.2%)

Trump won the Oldham County part of this district 62-31 while winning districtwide by 12 points. Berg narrowed the margin to just 53-47, outperforming the 2016 margin by 25 points. Clinton actually won the Jefferson County portion of the district 50-44. The only logical conclusion is that Berg is on-track to win once the thousands of Jefferson mail-ins come in, and possibly by a substantial margin.

[LimoLiberal]

BREAKING: BERG WINS WITH JEFFERSON MAIL-INS

https://twitter.com/WLKYMark/status/1277973179571429377

Final results:

Berg (D) - 24771 (57%)
Ferko (R) - 18705 (43%)

That concludes your LimoLiberal election night week coverage.

Democrats have increased their Kentucky State Senate caucus to 10 of 38.

[LimoLiberal]

CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD) – On Friday, Spencer Wetmore was declared the official winner of the SC House 115 Democratic Primary Runoff and the Democratic Special Election Primary runoff, following a recount due to the close race.

Wetmore beat Carol Tempel 1424 to 1416 in the Primary runoff, and 1438 to 1433 in the Special Election runoff to secure the Democratic nomination.

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Today there is one special - Oklahoma state senate 28

SC HD-115 numbers:

2016 prez: Trump 48-45
2018 HD: McCoy (R-inc) 51-49

Putting this suburban Charleston district at Lean D considering trends and the national environment. This district probably voted for Joe Cunningham by double digits.

[LimoLiberal]

Rainy day in NoVA for two special elections in the House of Delegates. HD-02 in eastern Prince William County and parts of Stafford County (think Quantico), vacated by Jennifer Carroll-Foy who's running for governor, and HD-90 in Norfolk, vacated by Joe Lindsey who was appointed to a judgeship. Democrats should win both but HD-02 could be closer than expected. Polls close at 7 PM.

[LimoLiberal]

Youngkin is done.

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1453145273572679691