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July 21, 2019, 03:43:56 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 8021 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: March 27, 2019, 07:54:54 am »

The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2019, 11:29:46 pm »





Its fairly clear that the dem voters pushed the Indie over the top here. 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2019, 11:00:16 am »

Schedule:

5/21: PA SD 33 & 41, HD 11
6/4: CA SD 1 & 33; NJ SD 1
6/11: AL HD 11
6/18: FL HD 7, 38, 97


I'm fairly confident all the PA stuff today is safe Republican.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2019, 07:25:36 am »

BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Rule 3 of Specials: Hispanic vote drops off precariously during any non-november election. We have seen this already this years in Texas specials, saw it before 2018 in California specials, saw it in the Texas primary...its only Nevada that sometimes bucks the trend if the national parties are pouring in cash for a certain election.
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