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September 17, 2019, 05:35:34 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 11140 times)
Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« on: March 26, 2019, 11:23:10 pm »

It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

What makes Kiley preferable?

Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.

Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?

Significantly less.

AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2019, 01:35:26 am »

Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.

Canít be a special election without Wulfric making galaxy brain takes.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2019, 08:03:50 pm »

Here were the final early voting numbers in HD-18 and HD-62:




HD-18's primary had a combined 75% Dem vote between 4 Dems, while HD-62 had the lone R get 45.5% with 30.8% going to the Indy and the remaining 23.7% going to the three Democrats.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 5,121
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2019, 09:27:11 pm »

JBE has to be very happy with the state legislative results tonight.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 5,121
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2019, 11:29:16 pm »

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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 5,121
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2019, 06:29:33 pm »


I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 5,121
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2019, 06:34:16 pm »


I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,121
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2019, 06:54:47 pm »


I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?

There's zero way to know that because of secret ballot, but it's not unreasonable to believe the outcome could have changed off those ineligible voters so they nullified it.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 5,121
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2019, 07:36:49 pm »

Ended up being 56-43 GOP in HD-14, which is quite a solid over-performance for a Trump +37 seat.

TN SD-22 ended up being very similar to Presidential margins. Trump won it 58-36, and the Republicans held it 59-39.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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Posts: 5,121
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Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2019, 07:18:28 pm »

Just absentee vote in SC so far:

Carrie Counton (D) 40
Patrick Haddon (R) 36

This does indicate an R blowout in all likelihood given the Democratic lean of absentees (the state Senate special election in this area in March had a massive Dem lead in absentees)
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 5,121
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2019, 07:24:10 pm »

Everything just dumped in at once:

Patrick Haddon (R) 61%
Carrie Counton (D) 39%

Pretty much what you'd expect, really. Counton winning 2 precincts is actually pretty impressive given that zero of the precincts in this seat voted for Tina Belge in the SD-06 special in March.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 5,121
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P
« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2019, 03:31:18 pm »

A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.
What did you honestly expect with two safe R districts? I'd save that energy for tossup races.

Especially since the PA district has two counties that have literally never voted D since the Civil War.
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