State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (user search)
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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 131508 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« on: March 26, 2019, 11:23:10 PM »

It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

What makes Kiley preferable?

Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.

Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?

Significantly less.

AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2019, 01:35:26 AM »

Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.

Can’t be a special election without Wulfric making galaxy brain takes.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2019, 08:03:50 PM »

Here were the final early voting numbers in HD-18 and HD-62:




HD-18's primary had a combined 75% Dem vote between 4 Dems, while HD-62 had the lone R get 45.5% with 30.8% going to the Indy and the remaining 23.7% going to the three Democrats.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2019, 09:27:11 PM »

JBE has to be very happy with the state legislative results tonight.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2019, 11:29:16 PM »

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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2019, 06:29:33 PM »


I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2019, 06:34:16 PM »


I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2019, 06:54:47 PM »


I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?

There's zero way to know that because of secret ballot, but it's not unreasonable to believe the outcome could have changed off those ineligible voters so they nullified it.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2019, 07:36:49 PM »

Ended up being 56-43 GOP in HD-14, which is quite a solid over-performance for a Trump +37 seat.

TN SD-22 ended up being very similar to Presidential margins. Trump won it 58-36, and the Republicans held it 59-39.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2019, 07:18:28 PM »

Just absentee vote in SC so far:

Carrie Counton (D) 40
Patrick Haddon (R) 36

This does indicate an R blowout in all likelihood given the Democratic lean of absentees (the state Senate special election in this area in March had a massive Dem lead in absentees)
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2019, 07:24:10 PM »

Everything just dumped in at once:

Patrick Haddon (R) 61%
Carrie Counton (D) 39%

Pretty much what you'd expect, really. Counton winning 2 precincts is actually pretty impressive given that zero of the precincts in this seat voted for Tina Belge in the SD-06 special in March.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2019, 03:31:18 PM »

A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.
What did you honestly expect with two safe R districts? I'd save that energy for tossup races.

Especially since the PA district has two counties that have literally never voted D since the Civil War.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2019, 10:23:35 PM »

Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2019, 12:46:44 AM »

Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.

I'm shocked Trump didn't carry it by more tbh

It’s still probably the least rough East KY seat for Dems upballot because Elliott is still somewhat more D than a lot of its neighbours and Rowan has Morehead State University.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2020, 09:01:47 PM »

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting


Please stahp
Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.

We can pretty much say this is over on the early vote. While Ds IIRC tend to do better on Election Day in Texas, they don't do dramatically better. And they'd have to, since you'd need nearly 60% of election day votes (assuming 12000 e-day votes) to see Dems win here at this point.

As for why it went this way (in order of my personal view of importance):
1) This district's Democratic base is mostly voters who aren't reliable for turning out in special elections, such as Latino/Hispanic voters.
2) This is a pretty Republican seat still. It's not as non-Atlas red as it used to be, but there's still a fair ways to go before you consider this a purple seat.
3) Gates has a ton of money, which let him severely outspend Democrats even with the outside money that came in.
4) Eliz ran a terrible campaign according to people I know on the ground, basically only targeting solidly Democratic voters in her GOTV and not even attempting persuasion in a district that you need crossover votes to win as a Democrat.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2020, 08:19:32 AM »

Elizabeth Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
    75,248
44.1%
    Melissa Melendez
(Party Preference: REP)
    95,378
55.9%


A disappointing loss for the Dems

Literally a seat that voted for Trump and Cox, but OK.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2020, 08:02:45 PM »

Apparently Velis got 71% in Westfield--a town Trump won by 4%. This is going to be an insane blowout when the blue part of the district comes in.

Where did you find that?
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #17 on: May 19, 2020, 08:07:39 PM »

https://www.capecodtimes.com/news/20200519/polls-close-in-special-plymouth--barnstable-district-election

Here's the page for the Plymouth-Barnstable election.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #18 on: May 19, 2020, 08:20:16 PM »


Looks like a pickup in this seat too if Moran is carrying Sandwich (a narrow Romney-Clinton town)

Eh, the result in Pembroke isn't so great.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #19 on: May 19, 2020, 08:47:11 PM »

The Plymouth town clerk emailed me a spreadsheet showing there are 4722 votes in that town.

Given that McMahon is down 2124 votes, he would need to win 72.5% of the vote in Plymouth.

He's done.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

« Reply #20 on: June 30, 2020, 09:55:09 AM »

Wow, that’s a quite impressive win.
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