State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Brittain33]

It would surprise me if Adams chose to caucus with the Dems since they're a minority and likely to stay one.

[Brittain33]

Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize I’ll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I don’t see why we can’t let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.

[Brittain33]

Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize I’ll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I don’t see why we can’t let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.

Well, tonight’s results are done now. I’m going to go ahead and start the new thread; feel free to continue discussions on today’s races here.

Sounds good, I’ll do the stickying later this week.

[Brittain33]

That turnout in SD 33 seems wildly different from the other two.

It does. Were the Allegheny local and county primary elections a big draw?

[Brittain33]

Votes
DEMMary Egler
1,759
14.71%
REPJim Quinn
5,043
42.18%
REPCarden H. Summers
5,154
43.11%
Votes Cast
11,956

Going to a runoff between two Republicans. It's another failure for the Democratic Party.

Yes, it certainly was a failure for the Democrats to secure a spot in *checks notes* a rural Georgia seat that went Trump overwhelmingly.

14.71% in a district with 32% Black population is NOT good anyway..

True. But it’s a special election, so either a candidate has a campaign and pulls the voters in, or doesn’t. If the Democrat is a Some Guy with no campaign and the Republicans bring out their voters, this is the result.

[Brittain33]

I thought the name looked familiar... her father is a state senator from Bucks County. That might have helped her a bit.

[Brittain33]

1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.

[Brittain33]

I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the anything. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Beyond their control.

[Brittain33]

For now dem candidates running in special elections have underperformed Biden by 0.6 on average.

Makes sense since that’s roughly what happened in federal downballot races last year, too.

[Brittain33]

Any news on these?

Follow @ChazNuttycombe on Twitter.

[Brittain33]

This is going to mess up the charts tracking swing since 2020.

[Brittain33]

Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.

2021 and 2022 were already pretty bad for Democrats in this state.

2022 was mixed, a bad 2022 would have seen Spanberger lose. It does seem like Republicans have rebounded a bit in Hampton Roads and near Richmond but not at all in NoVa.

[Brittain33]

Any explanation for the difference in turnout between Nashville and the other two? I can guess, but curious if anyone knows details.

[Brittain33]

This is why I’m not stressing about Biden’s poll numbers yet. There’s time for that next year.

[Brittain33]

Can’t read too much into this when turnout was so abysmal. There were more than 57,000 votes cast here in 2022. Although I guess it’s surprising any time when Republican turnout is as bad as Democratic turnout in Florida.

[Brittain33]

Am I understanding right, both special elections showed 2016 results?

[Brittain33]

Virginia who? never heard of her. When's the next real special election? (waves hands)

[Brittain33]

I’ve gotten so many calls for this race because of my phone number being incorrectly linked with a Democrat named Karen in this district.