State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[GeorgiaModerate]

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>

Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia has two legislative special elections on June 15, both in House districts formerly held by Republicans.  HD-156 is safe R, but HD-34 looks like it could potentially be interesting; it's a suburban district (Cobb County) where the former incumbent, Bert Reeves, won 56-44 in 2020, a decline from his winning percentages of 58% in 2018 and 64% in 2016.  There are two Republicans, two Democrats, and one Libertarian running.  If no one gets a majority on June 15, there will be a runoff between the top two on July 13.

Does anyone local have more insight on this race?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very early returns in the Georgia special elections, from https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109802/web.276935/#/summary.  Both seats were previously held by Republicans.

HD-34 (a suburban Cobb County district that voted for Trump by a few points):

David Blinkhorn (R) 273 9.34%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 579 19.81%
Chris Neill (L) 16 0.55%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1179 40.34%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 876 29.97%

If no one wins a majority tonight, there will be a runoff in four weeks.

HD-156 (solid R):

Wright Gres (D) 111 11.90%
Leesa Hagan (R) 660 70.74%
Wally Sapp (R) 162 17.36%

[GeorgiaModerate]

HD-34:

David Blinkhorn (R) 295 9.43%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 625 19.99%
Chris Neill (L) 18 0.58%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1255 40.13%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 934 29.87%


HD-156:

Wright Gres (D) 188 10.65%
Leesa Hagan (R) 934 52.92%
Wally Sapp (R) 643 36.43%

[GeorgiaModerate]

HD-34 isn't updating frequently, but HD-156 is.  It's going to be close as to whether Hagan wins outright or the two Republicans go to a runoff.  At the moment she has a majority with exactly nothing to spare (2010 out of 4019)!

HD-34 (0% complete):

David Blinkhorn (R) 295 9.43%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 625 19.99%
Chris Neill (L) 18 0.58%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1255 40.13%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 934 29.87%


HD-156 (75% complete):

Wright Gres (D) 598 14.88%
Leesa Hagan (R) 2010 50.01%
Wally Sapp (R) 1411 35.11%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Results continue to trickle in sloooowly.  I've got some other stuff to do before bedtime, so this will be my last update.  You can follow the SoS results at https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109802/web.276935/#/summary.  I'll predict that HD-34 goes to a runoff between Seabaugh (R) and Smith (D), while HD-156 could be either an outright Hagan win or a runoff between the two R's.

HD-34 (0% complete):

David Blinkhorn (R) 383 9.76%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 755 19.25%
Chris Neill (L) 29 0.74%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1654 42.16%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 1102 28.09%


HD-156 (75% complete):

Wright Gres (D) 602 14.45%
Leesa Hagan (R) 2026 48.63%
Wally Sapp (R) 1538 36.92%

[GeorgiaModerate]

The runoff in Georgia HD-34 between Devan Seabaugh (R) and Priscilla Smith (D) is today.  Here's a local article:

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-the-little-election-with-big-names-behind-it/VKU2F32ACNBULB7YOKI62KS3RY/

The district is in suburban Cobb County and is R-leaning (Trump +4 IIRC) so I expect Seabaugh to win, but an upset isn't completely out of the question.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I had forgotten that in addition to HD-34, the HD-156 runoff is also today.  It's a solid R district and the contestants are Leesa Hagan and Wally Sapp, both Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any decent people to follow on twitter for state level races like this? Seems like hardly any of the usual election followers are talking about results

IMO the two best Georgia political reporters on Twitter are Greg Bluestein of the AJC (@bluestein) and Stephen Fowler of Georgia Public Broadcasting (@stphnfwlr), but I haven't seen either of them tweet anything about tonight's runoffs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia results here (none yet): https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109978/web.276935/#/summary

[GeorgiaModerate]

How Dem are absentees expected to be?

Not as much as would be needed.  I'd say Seabaugh is very very very likely to win at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

What percent of KSU students are registered to vote in HD34 rather than their home?

No idea, but it's a big school and the practice isn't uncommon for on-campus students (I was registered at my dorm address many moons ago). If even 5% of the 41000 enrolled students were registered in HD34, it'd be enough to significantly swing this election.

I just find it so hard to believe one university being out of school is the difference between 26 point win and a 4 point win

It's not implausible given the size of the student population and how low-turnout the special election was.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats held Pennsylvania's 5th Senate District which was vacant after the incumbent was elected to a judge spot in November.

DILLON, JAMES
(DEM)
54.05%
    Votes: 14,510
OROPEZA, SAMUEL E
(REP)
45.95%
    Votes: 12,335

Was a Biden +10 district, so that seems to be an R+2 swing.

weird breakdown as well.
https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1526750265919037440

Reporting error for that ward, perhaps?

[GeorgiaModerate]

There’s a one hour wait to vote in Ft. Myers right now.

Terrible mismanagement by the Republican state government!

[GeorgiaModerate]

What happens if it ties 200-200?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Regarding the Jan. 3 special election to replace the late Georgia House Speaker David Ralston:


Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting]Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting

Conservative North Georgia talk show host Brian K. Pritchard, a candidate for the state House who rails against election fraud, allegedly voted illegally nine times while serving a felony sentence in a $33,000 forgery and theft case, state officials say.

The Georgia attorney general’s office wrote Thursday that Pritchard broke state law each time he voted before his sentence was completed, according to a filing with the Office of State Administrative Hearings. State law prohibits felons from voting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1600596011377954829

[GeorgiaModerate]

We might have a special election soon in Georgia HD-116119:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1603553671463198720

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia will have linked special elections on January 31.  SD-11 opened up when Sen. Dean Burke (R-Bainbridge) resigned to become the Department of Community Health’s new chief medical officer.  Then in HD-172, Rep. Sam Watson (R-Moultrie) resigned to run for the SD-11 vacancy.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/south-georgia-state-house-member-resigns-from-office/P232W2HKH5EQXF4ESCCJY3U6BU/ 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1607817954036535298

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1609289136111865857

[GeorgiaModerate]

Could bipartisanship actually be coming back into favor in this country?  That would be a very encouraging development.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There is yet another vacancy in the Georgia House (the fifth so far) as Mike Glanton (D-Jonesboro) resigned after 14 years in office.  There will be a special election on March 21 to fill the HD-75 vacancy.  The district is Safe D; Glanton was reelected with 89% of the vote in November.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/democratic-state-rep-mike-glanton-resigns-from-georgia-house/45MQYJZGQBGEVFRADBLFIEVKEA/

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's a special election in Georgia HD-75 today.  The district is Safe D; the previous occupant, Mike Glanton, won with 89% in 2022 (with slightly different boundaries).  Today's contest features two Democrats, Herman Andrews and Eric Bell II, and one Republican, Della Ashley.  If nobody gets a majority, a runoff will be held on April 18.