Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

Senate District 18


Counties: Fond du Lac, Ozaukee, & Washington
Largest City: Fond du Lac
PVI: R+17
2018 GOV: 67.3-31.7 Walker
2018 SEN: 6.19-38.0 Vukmir

Assembly District 52


Counties: Fond du Lac, Ozaukee, & Washington
Largest City: Port Washington
PVI: R+21
2018 GOV: 70.8-27.8 Walker
2018 SEN: 65.9-34.0 Vukmir

Assembly District 53


Counties: Washington
Largest City: West Bend
PVI: R+21
2018 GOV: 70.8-27.9 Walker
2018 SEN: 65.7-34.3 Vukmir

Assembly District 54


Counties: Fond du Lac
Largest City: Fond du Lac
PVI: R+7
2018 GOV: 56.9-41.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 52.3-47.6 Vukmir

Notes: This district essentially had to be two things, one part Milwaukee exurbs and one part Fond du Lac area. Dodge County plus Jefferson County being a perfect Senate district and the best way to draw Sheboygan County geographically constricted where I could go with this Senate district. Yet, it's not totally out of place as it's not too different from what the current map does, just the addition of the City of Fond du Lac. The Senate district is Safe Republican and so are the three Assembly districts. One could make the argument that Assembly District 54 is more likely Republican given the PVI, but that's a very constant Republican that really doesn't shift regardless of the statewide outcome (see the 2018 Senate Result).

[Gass3268]

Senate District 19


Counties: Manitowoc & Sheboygan
Largest City: Sheboygan
PVI: R+7
2018 GOV: 58.9-39.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 53.1-46.8 Vukmir

Assembly District 55


Counties: Sheboygan
Largest City: Plymouth
PVI: R+17
2018 GOV: 66.7-31.8 Walker
2018 SEN: 61.8-38.1 Vukmir

Assembly District 56


Counties: Sheboygan
Largest City: Sheboygan
PVI: D+3
2018 GOV: 49.2-48.7 Evers
2018 SEN: 56.2-43.6 Baldwin

Assembly District 57


Counties: Manitowoc
Largest City: Manitowoc
PVI: R+6
2018 GOV: 57.4-40.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 50.7-49.2 Vukmir

Notes: This Senate district was constructed primarily around Sheboygan County, which has enough population for two Assembly districts. It almost perfectly works that the City of Sheboygan has enough population for one Assembly district, plus just a little bit of extra population coming from the Town of Sheboygan. And then the rest of the county is enough for another Assembly district. The question then becomes where do you get the 3rd Assembly district and the only place that makes sense is the core Manitowoc County district, built around the City of Manitowoc and Two Rivers. I would put the Senate District at safe Republican, along with Assembly District 55. I would rate Assembly District 56 as a toss up, but tilting Democratic and Assembly District 57 as leaning Republican, but trending closer to safe. One could argue that the Senate seat should be rated likely Republican due to the PVI of the district only R+7, but even Senator Baldwin failed to win this district even while winning the state by almost 11 points.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 20


Counties: Fond duc Lac, Green Lake, Marquette, Outagamie, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, & Wood
Largest City: Wisconsin Rapids
PVI: R+11
2018 GOV: 61.5-37.2 Walker
2018 SEN: 56.1-43.8 Vukmir

Assembly District 58


Counties: Fond du Lac, Green Lake, & Marquette
Largest City: Ripon
PVI: R+15
2018 GOV: 63.6-34.6 Walker
2018 SEN: 58.7-41.3 Vukmir

Assembly District 59


Counties: Polk, Waushara, & Wood
Largest City: Wisconsin Rapids
PVI: R+8
2018 GOV: 57.7-40.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 52.7-47.2 Vukmir

Assembly District 60


Counties: Outagamie & Waupaca
Largest City: New London
PVI: R+12
2018 GOV: 62.1-36.0 Walker
2018 SEN: 57.6-42.4 Vukmir

Notes: This Senate district is the amalgamation of three different Assembly districts in central Wisconsin. One was the remainder of Fond du Lac County, plus Green Lake County and a portion of Marquette County. The next one was a district that took all of Waushara County, the remains of Portage County, and Wisconsin Rapids in Wood County. This is one district that I have never been totally happy with, but I think this is better than the alternative, which was for Assembly District 59 to essentially be all of Wood County minus strip from Wisconsin Rapids to Marshfield. The problem is this district could have looked really bad and there could have totally be accusations of gerrymandering. I should also note that the Town of Grand Rapids, which connects Wisconsin Rapids to Portage County in this district, is the only township that is split in this entire map. The final district was constructed from Waupaca County which at .91 of an Assembly district only needed to add a little bit of population from Outagamie County. All three Assembly Districts are safe Republican as is the Senate district. Assembly District 59 could have been competitive in the past, but not anymore.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 21


Counties: Adams, Columbia, Marquette, Juneau, & Sauk
Largest City: Baraboo
PVI: EVEN
2018 GOV: 49.9-48.1 Evers
2018 SEN: 54.6-45.3 Baldwin

Assembly District 61


Counties: Columbia & Sauk
Largest City: Portage
PVI: D+1
2018 GOV: 52.2-45.7 Evers
2018 SEN: 56.6-43.3 Baldwin

Assembly District 62


Counties: Sauk
Largest City: Baraboo
PVI: D+3
2018 GOV: 54.1-43.5 Evers
2018 SEN: 58.9-41.1 Baldwin

Assembly District 63


Counties: Adams, Juneau, & Marquette
Largest City: Mauston
PVI: R+6
2018 GOV: 56.3-41.7 Walker
2018 SEN: 52.8-47.1 Vukmir

Notes: This Senate district is drawn around the northern counties of the Madison metropolitan area, plus the far reaching areas of the Madison media market. Columbia County had .99 the population for an Assembly District, while Sauk County had 1.08 of an Assembly district. This meant giving the Columbia County based 61st Assembly District the City of Wisconsin Dells and the Village of Lake Delton from Sauk County to even everything out. The third district is made up of Adams County, Juneau County, and a portion of Marquette County. The Senate district is a toss up and so is Assembly District 61. Assembly District 62 is lean Democratic and Assembly District 63 is safe Republican as it's moving to the right really fast.

[Scottholes 2.0]

It looks like Milwaukee County lost population last year, even more than Wayne County. Hopefully, Dane can continue to offset that loss for Democrats: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/census-dane-county-leads-state-in-population-growth-more-than/article_3ae7268e-8f02-52e3-a599-8787064dcf60.html

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/04/18/metro-detroit-grand-rapids-michigan-population-growth/3495025002/

[Gass3268]

It looks like Milwaukee County lost population last year, even more than Wayne County. Hopefully, Dane can continue to offset that loss for Democrats: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/census-dane-county-leads-state-in-population-growth-more-than/article_3ae7268e-8f02-52e3-a599-8787064dcf60.html

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/04/18/metro-detroit-grand-rapids-michigan-population-growth/3495025002/

As of now Milwaukee has lost about 1/3 of an Assembly Seat. Dane County has gained almost 3/4s of an Assembly District. No other county saw a change more than 1/5 of a district.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It looks like Milwaukee County lost population last year, even more than Wayne County. Hopefully, Dane can continue to offset that loss for Democrats: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/census-dane-county-leads-state-in-population-growth-more-than/article_3ae7268e-8f02-52e3-a599-8787064dcf60.html

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/04/18/metro-detroit-grand-rapids-michigan-population-growth/3495025002/

Yet, Dems continue to pin everything on Milwaukee (besides Madison), instead of their natutral base the Rural West of the state. SMH.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 22


Counties: Jackson, La Crosse, & Monroe
Largest City: La Crosse
PVI: D+2
2018 GOV: 52.6-45.1 Evers
2018 SEN: 59.5-40.5 Baldwin

Assembly District 64


Counties: Jackson & Monroe
Largest City: Sparta
PVI: R+5
2018 GOV: 54.6-43.2 Walker
2018 SEN: 50.9-49.0 Baldwin

Assembly District 65


Counties: La Crosse
Largest City: La Crosse
PVI: D+13
2018 GOV: 64.7-32.3 Evers
2018 SEN: 70.4-29.6

Assembly District 66


Counties: La Crosse
Largest City: Onalaska
PVI: R+1
2018 GOV: 49.0-48.9 Walker
2018 SEN: 56.2-43.8 Baldwin

Notes: Jackson, La Crosse, and Monroe counties made up exactly 3.14 Assembly districts or just under what is acceptable for a Senate District. Luckily, if you take .13 from Jackson County and add it to Buffalo, Pepin, and Trempealeau counties you get exactly one Assembly districts. This Senate district ends up being a central Driftless Area district. Two Assembly districts fit perfectly in La Crosse County. One takes the entirety of the City of La Crosse and the Town of Campbell, while the other takes the rest. The final district comes from Monroe County and the majority of Jackson County. The Senate district leans Democratic, even though I imagine one could argue it's a toss up seat. Assembly District 65 is safe Democratic, Assembly District 66 is a toss up (with the current Democratic incumbent it is closer to lean or likely Democratic, seriously this guy doesn't lose), and Assembly District 64 is likely Republican.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 23


Counties: Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Jackson, Marathon, Pepin, Trempealeau, & Wood
Largest City: Marshfield
PVI: R+8
2018 GOV: 59.0-39.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 51.8-48.1 Vukmir

Assembly District 67


Counties: Buffalo, Jackson, Trempealeau, & Pepin
Largest City: Arcadia
PVI: R+4
2018 GOV: 55.5-42.6 Walker
2018 SEN: 51.6-48.4 Baldwin

Assembly District 68


Counties: Chippewa, Clark, & Marathon
Largest City: Stanley
PVI: R+12
2018 GOV: 62.4-35.8 Walker
2018 SEN: 55.2-44.7 Vukmir

Assembly District 69


Counties: Marathon & Wood
Largest City: Marshfield
PVI: D+9
2018 GOV: 58.7-39.6 Walker
2018 SEN: 52.5-47.5 Vukmir

Notes: This is another one of those districts where if you look at it by the three Assembly districts that make it up, it looks fine, but when you merge them together it looks sort of off. However, do to choices made for other districts and geographic/population constraints, this had to do. This is essentially a northern Driftless area district that drifts a bit close to the Wisconsin River area. I already discussed the Assembly district drawn along the Mississippi River from Jackson to Pepin County in my prior post. The next district I redrew as I was not happy with the way the Eau Claire area looked. I was not a fan of splitting the suburb of Altoona from the Senate District with Eau Claire. This new map splits less counties as Eau Claire County and Clark County remain whole at the Senate level. This newly drawn district takes all of Clark County, adds the neighboring townships and communities from Marathon County, plus takes the area along Highway 29 in Chippewa County. I am a much bigger fan as to how this turned out compared to the prior version. The final Assembly District is essentially the core of Wood County, minus Wisconsin Rapids and a little piece of the City of Marshfield that goes into Marathon County. The Senate district is safe Republican as is Assembly District 68 and 69, while Assembly District 67 is likely Republican.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 24


Counties: Winnebago
Largest City: Oshkosh
PVI: R+3
2018 GOV: 50.8-47.0 Walker
2018 SEN: 53.2-46.7 Baldwin

Assembly District 70


Counties: Winnebago
Largest City: Oshkosh-West
PVI: R+10
2018 GOV: 59.3-39.0 Walker
2018 SEN: 54.8-45.1 Vukmir

Assembly District 71


Counties: Winnebago
Largest City: Oshkosh-East
PVI: D+5
2018 GOV: 56.0-41.3 Evers
2018 SEN: 61.4-38.4 Baldwin

Assembly District 72


Counties: Winnebago
Largest City: Neenah
PVI: EVEN
2018 GOV: 49.1-48.0 Evers
2018 SEN: 56.1-43.7 Baldwin

Notes: This district is pretty easy to explain as it is entirely and only Winnebago County. Winnebago County has enough population for 2.91 Assembly Districts, which means it has 97% of the population needed for a Senate district. Well within the allowed 5% deviation. The idea for splitting up the county for Assembly districts was also pretty easy. One district was as much of the City of Oshkosh as possible, another was Menasha, Neenah, and as much of Fox Crossings (the now village made of the former Town of Menasha) as possible (it unfortunately had to be split due to population constraints), and then a district of what was left in the county. The Oshkosh based district is likely Democratic, the Neenha/Menasha based district is a toss up, and the rural based district is safe Republican. The Senate district itself, I would probably rate lean Republican (argument could be made for toss up), but it's a seat Democrats would have to pick up in order to take the State Senate.

[Scottholes 2.0]

It looks like Milwaukee County lost population last year, even more than Wayne County. Hopefully, Dane can continue to offset that loss for Democrats: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/census-dane-county-leads-state-in-population-growth-more-than/article_3ae7268e-8f02-52e3-a599-8787064dcf60.html

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/04/18/metro-detroit-grand-rapids-michigan-population-growth/3495025002/

As of now Milwaukee has lost about 1/3 of an Assembly Seat. Dane County has gained almost 3/4s of an Assembly District. No other county saw a change more than 1/5 of a district.

Thank goodness for Dane!

[Gass3268]

Senate District 25


Counties: Brown, Calumet, Door, Kewaunee, & Manitowoc
Largest City: Howard
PVI: R+10
2018 GOV: 60.0-38.7 Walker
2018 SEN: 53.5-46.4 Vukmir

Assembly District 73


Counties: Calumet & Manitowoc
Largest City: Appleton-South
PVI: R+11
2018 GOV: 61.9-36.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 55.5-44.5 Vukmir

Assembly District 74


Counties: Door, Kewaunee, & Manitowoc
Largest City: Sturgeon Bay
PVI: R+6
2018 GOV: 55.8-42.6 Walker
2018 SEN: 50.4-49.5 Baldwin

Assembly District 75


Counties: Brown
Largest City: Howard
PVI: R+12
2018 GOV: 61.9-36.4 Walker
2018 SEN: 56.3-43.6 Vukmir

Notes: This Senate district is essentially the rural district of Northeast Wisconsin. In comprises of the areas that are in-between the Green Bay district, the Manitowoc/Sheboygan district, the Outagamie district, and the Winnebago district. I just today did a little bit of a redraw of this district and I'm really happy on how the revisions turned out. The first Assembly district is comprised of all of Calumet County and western Manitowoc County. The second Assembly district takes all of Door and Kewaunee counties and adds northern Manitowoc County. The final district takes almost all of rural Brown County, plus the suburb of Howard. Brown County has enough population for a little over 4 districts. Overall, the Senate district is safe Republican as is Assembly District 73 and 75. Assembly District 74 is likely Republican.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 26


Counties: Brown
Largest City: Green Bay
PVI: EVEN
2018 GOV: 49.1-48.7 Walker
2018 SEN: 55.3-44.5 Baldwin

Assembly District 76


Counties: Brown
Largest City: De Pere
PVI: R+4
2018 GOV: 53.0-45.0 Walker
2018 SEN: 51.5-48.3 Baldwin

Assembly District 77


Counties: Brown
Largest City: Green Bay-East
PVI: EVEN
2018 GOV: 50.7-46.9 Evers
2018 SEN: 57.1-42.8 Baldwin

Assembly District 78


Counties: Brown
Largest City: Green Bay-West
PVI: D+5
2018 GOV: 52.4-44.5 Evers
2018 SEN: 59.2-40.5 Baldwin

Notes: This district is comprised of the core of the Green Bay metro area. It includes all of the city itself, plus most of the key suburbs. When dividing this up into Assembly districts one was comprised of most of the suburbs (De Pere, Ashwaubenon, & Allouz), plus a little bit of western Green Bay to fill out the population. The next district takes Bellevue and most of eastern Green Bay. The final district takes the rest of Green Bay, which is primarily the western part of the City. The Senate district is a toss up, as is Assembly District 77. Assembly District 76 leans Republican, while Assembly District 78 is likely Democratic.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 27


Counties: Brown, Florence, Forest, Marathon, Marinette, Menominee, Oconto, & Shawano
Largest City: Suamico
PVI: R+12
2018 GOV: 63.9-34.8 Walker
2018 SEN: 57.7-42.2 Vukmir

Assembly District 79


Counties: Brown, Oconto, & Shawano
Largest City: Suamico
PVI: R+13
2018 GOV: 65.0-33.6 Walker
2018 SEN: 59.6-43.4 Vukmir

Assembly District 80


Counties: Florence, Forest, & Marinette
Largest City: Marinette
PVI: R+11
2018 GOV: 63.0-35.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 56.6-43.4 Vukmir

Assembly District 81


Counties: Marathon, Menominee, & Shawano
Largest City: Shawano
PVI: R+11
2018 GOV: 64.9-33.4 Walker
2018 SEN: 59.8-40.2 Vukmir

Notes: This Senate district comprises of most of the far eastern side of the Northwoods region of Wisconsin. The goal here was to keep as many whole counties together as possible, which isn't that hard as many of these counties hare not highly populated. That being said, I would have liked to have had Langlade County in this district, but it was just too big too include. Dividing this district into Assembly districts was also fairly logical. Assembly District 79 got the remains of Brown County, all of Oconto County, and the tiny bit of Pulaski that's in Shawnao County. Assembly District 80 is comprised of the full counties of Florence, Forest, and Marinette. Finally, Assembly District 81 is almost all of Shawano, Menominee, and eastern Marathon County to help get the necessary population. Both the Senate district and all three Assembly Districts are safe Republican

[Gass3268]

Senate District 28


Counties: Outagamie
Largest City: Appleton-North
PVI: R+5
2018 GOV: 54.4-43.7 Walker
2018 SEN: 50.4-49.6 Baldwin

Assembly District 82


Counties: Outagamie
Largest City: Seymour
PVI: R+13
2018 GOV: 64.9-33.4 Walker
2018 SEN: 59.8-40.2 Vukmir

Assembly District 83


Counties: Outgamie
Largest City: Kaukauna
PVI: R+4
2018 GOV: 53.1-44.8 Walker 
2018 SEN: 51.8-48.2 Baldwin

Assembly District


Counties: Outagamie
Largest City: Appleton-Center
PVI: D+3
2018 GOV: 54.4-42.9 Evers
2018 SEN: 60.5-39.5 Baldwin

Notes: Outagamie County has enough population for 3.08 Assembly districts or 102% of what is necessary for a Senate District. It would have been great to keep the entire county whole, like I did for the Winnebago County based 24th Senate District, but the Waupaca County based 60th Assembly District needed a little population boost in order to get to the necessary threshold and adding Northwest Outagamie County made sense. In creating the Assembly Districts, one was to have as much of the core of the City of Appleton as possible. The next one would have what was remaining of Appleton, the Town of Grand Chute, plus the suburban communities of Little Chute, Kimberly, Combined Locks, and Kaukauna. The final district would take the remainder of the county. Rating wise, the Senate District is probably lean Republican (maybe likely), Assembly District 82 is safe Republican, Assembly District 83 is lean Republican, and Assembly District 84 is likely Democratic even with only a D+3 PVI.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 29


Counties: Marathon & Portage
Largest City: Wausau
PVI: R+3
2018 GOV: 53.5-44.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 52.1-47.8 Baldwin

Assembly District 85


Counties: Portage
Largest City: Stevens Point
PVI: D+5
2018 GOV: 53.6-43.4 Evers
2018 SEN: 60.2-39.6 Baldwin

Assembly District 86


Counties: Marathon
Largest City: Kronenwetter
PVI: R+13
2018 GOV: 65.0-33.4 Walker
2018 SEN: 58.0-41.9 Vukmir

Assembly District 87


Counties: Marathon
Largest City: Wausau
PVI: EVEN
2018 GOV: 51.3-46.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 54.2-45.6 Baldwin

Notes: This district was drawn to incorporate the major communities along the northern part of the Wisconsin, taking the core of both Marathon and Portage counties. In terms of the Assembly districts, one takes the vast majority of Portage County including Stevens Point. The next one takes the cities and villages of Wausau, Schofield, Weston, and Rothschild. The last one is drawn to include the vast majority of the more rural areas of Marathon County. The Senate district leans Republican, while Assembly District 85 is likely Democratic, Assembly District 86 is safe Republican, and Assembly District 87 is a toss up.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 30


Counties: Chippewa, Dunn, & Eau Claire
Largest City: Eau Claire
PVI: D+1
2018 GOV: 51.7-46.0 Evers
2018 SEN: 58.0-41.9 Baldwin

Assembly District 88


Counties: Chippewa & Eau Claire
Largest City: Chippewa Falls
PVI: R+3
2018 GOV: 51.3-46.4 Walker
2018 SEN: 53.9-46.1 Baldwin

Assembly District 89


Counties: Eau Claire
Largest City: Eau Claire
PVI: D+9
2018 GOV: 60.7-36.6 Evers
2018 SEN: 66.3-33.6 Baldwin

Assembly District 90


Counties: Dunn & Eau Claire
Largest City: Menomonie
PVI: R+3
2018 GOV: 50.5-46.8 Walker
2018 SEN: 52.8-47.2 Baldwin

Notes: I recently redrew this district because I was not a fan at how this area of the state looked. The prior incarnation split the Eau Claire urban cluster into two different senate districts, including the direct suburb of Altoona. This new version keeps a full Dunn County and now a full Eau Claire County, while keeping the most urban areas of Chippewa County that connect to the Eau Claire urban cluster. In terms of the Assembly districts, the City of Eau Clair in Eau Claire County is a little over what is allowed for a district. So part of the western part of the city was shed off and added to a Dunn County based district that also includes a few townships in western Eau Claire County. The remainder of the district, which includes the urban areas of Chippewa County, Altoona, and the eastern part of Eau Claire County make up the last district. This results in a Senate district that leans Democratic, Assembly district 89 is safe Democratic, while the other two Assembly districts are toss ups.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 31


Counties: Pierce, Polk, & St. Criox
Largest City: River Falls
PVI: R+9
2018 GOV: 55.0-42.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 52.1-47.8 Vukmir

Assembly District 91


Counties: Pierce & St. Criox
Largest City: River Falls
PVI: R+6
2018 GOV: 51.3-45.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 51.1-48.8 Baldwin

Assembly District 92


Counties: St. Criox
Largest City: Hudson
PVI: R+9
2018 GOV: 54.1-42.9 Walker
2018 SEN: 51.9-48.0 Vukmir

Assembly District 93


Counties: Polk & St. Croix
Largest City: Baldwin
PVI: R+12
2018 GOV: 59.0-38.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 55.8-44.2 Vukmir

Notes: It's not to hard to describe what's going on in this district as Pierce, Polk, and St. Croix counties together have essentially the perfect population for a Senate district. This also works as these counties are Twin Cities exurbs. Splitting it up into Assembly districts is easy too as you can draw two of them with full counties (Pierce and Polk) and then take a little bit of St. Croix County to get to the necessary population for them both. Assembly District 91 taking southern St. Croix County and Assembly District 93 taking western St. Croix County.The remaining core of St. Croix County ends up being Assembly District 92. The Senate district is likely Republican and only reason it isn't safe Republican is due to the Democratic incumbent who won in last year's special election. Assembly District 91 is also likely Republican, while Assembly District 92 and 93 are both safe Republican. Watch out for Assembly District 92 in the future, things might be shifting in this area a bit towards the Democrats.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 32


Counties: Chippewa, Langlade, Lincoln, Onedia, Price, Rusk, Taylor, & Vilas
Largest City: Merrill
PVI: R+10
2018 GOV: 61.6-36.2 Walker
2018 SEN: 55.2-44.7 Vukmir

Assembly District 94


Counties: Chippewa, Rusk, Price, & Taylor
Largest City: Medford
PVI: R+14
2018 GOV: 65.3-33.0 Walker
2018 SEN: 58.3-41.6 Vukmir

Assembly District 95


Counties: Langlade, Lincoln, & Price
Largest City: Merrill
PVI: R+9
2018 GOV: 59.7-36.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 53.8-46.1 Vukmir

Assembly District 96


Counties: Oneida & Vilas
Largest City: Rhinelander
PVI: R+9
2018 GOV: 59.3-38.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 54.1-45.8 Vukmir

Notes: This district is centered around north central Wisconsin or more commonly known as the Northwoods. Lots of whole counties fit nicely in here, other than northern Chippewa County. In terms of making Assembly districts here, Onedia and Vilas counties fit nicely together into one district. I then put Langlade, Lincoln and a portion of Price County in another. Then finally Rusk, Taylor and portions of Chippewa and Price counties in the last one. The Senate district and all three Assembly districts are safe Republican.   

[LoneStarDem]

How's WI Governor Tony Evers (D) doing so far ?

[Gass3268]

Senate District 33


Counties: Ashland, Bayfield, Barron, Burnett, Douglas, Iron, Sawyer, & Washburn
Largest City: Superior
PVI: R+1
2018 GOV: 49.7-48.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 53.7-46.2 Baldwin

Assembly District 97


Counties: Barron & Washburn
Largest City: Rice Lake
PVI: R+9
2018 GOV: 57.2-41.1 Walker
2018 SEN: 53.6-46.3 Vukmir

Assembly District 98


Counties: Ashland, Bayfield, Iron, Sawyer, & Washburn
Largest City: Ashland
PVI: D+1
2018 GOV: 51.4-46.5 Evers
2018 SEN: 57.0-43.0 Baldwin

Assembly District 99


Counties: Burnett & Douglas
Largest City: Superior
PVI: D+3
2018 GOV: 52.3-45.2 Evers
2018 SEN: 57.1-42.9 Baldwin

Notes: This final Senate district is centered around the four counties on Lake Superior before adding four counties to the south to get to the necessary population. Very happy that these eight counties fit perfectly into one Senate district. Now when splitting them up into Assembly districts, Burnett and Douglas counties make up exactly one district. Barron County has .80 of the population needed for an Assembly district and is able to take most of Washburn County to fill it out. The final district takes Ashland, Bayfield, Iron, Sawyer, and the final portion of Wasburn. The changes in this district have to be concerning to Democrats. The Senate district and the two districts on the lakeshore were always Safe Democrat since FDR was President. Luckily they still vote more strongly Democratic down ticket. Even with the R+1 PVI, I would still rate this Senate district Lean D while I would rate Assembly District 99 likely Democratic, Assembly District 98 lean Democratic, and Assembly District 97 safe Republican. It's really that Barron County based district that really hurst Democrats here. This district reminds me a lot of MN-08 next door. Present, but weakening Democratic strength in the northern part of the district, with crazy strong Republican margins in the southern part. 

[Gass3268]

Here are the current incumbents, with their party and current district, for each of the new Assembly seats. If the number is blank it means it's an open seat. Question mark means I'm guessing due to no publicly available voting address.

1         
2   Tod Ohnstad (D-65)      
3   Samantha Kerkman (R-61)      
4         
5   Greta Neubauer (D-66)      
6   Robert Wittke (R-62) | Robin Vos (R-63)   
7   Tyler August (R-32)      
8   Cody Horlacher (R-33)      
9   Barbara Dittrich (R-9)      
10   Don Vruwink (D-43)      
11   Debra Kolste (D-44)      
12   Amy Loudenbeck (R-31) | Mark Spreitzer (R-45)   
13         
14   Travis Tranel (R-49)      
15   Loren Oldenburg (R-96)      
16   Todd Novak (R-51) | Sondy Pope (D-80)   
17   Jimmy Anderson (D-47)      
18   Dianne Hesselbein (D-79)      
19   Lisa Subeck (D-78)      
20         
21   Chris Taylor (D-76)      
22   Gary Hebl (D-46) | Melissa Sargent (D-48)   
23   Shelia Stubbs (D-77)      
24         
25         
26   John Jagler (R-37)      
27   Mark Born (R-39)      
28   Adam Neylon (R-98) | Cindi Duchow (R-99)   
29         
30   Rob Hutton (R-13)      
31   Janel Brandtjen (R-22)      
32   Daniel Knodl (R-24)      
33   Jim Ott (R-23)      
34   Joe Sanfelippo (R-14)| Mike Kuglitsch (R-84) | Scott Allen (R-97)
35   Ken Skowronski (R-82)| Chuck Wichgers (R-83)   
36   Jessie Rodriguez (R-21)      
37         
38         
39   Robyn Vining (D-14)      
40         
41   Jason Fields (D-11)      
42   LaKeshia Myers (D-12)      
43   Daniel Riemer (D-07)      
44   JoCasta Zamarripa (D-08)      
45   Marisabel Cabrera (D-09)?      
46   David Crowley (D-17)      
47   Evan Goyke (D-18)      
48   David Bowen (D-10) | Kalan Haywood (D-16)   
49   Christine Sinicki (D-20)      
50   Jonathan Brostoff (D-19)      
51         
52   Timothy S. Ramthun (R-59) | Robert Brooks (R-60)   
53   Rick Gundrum (R-58)      
54   Jeremy Thiesfeldt (R-52)      
55   Terry Katsma (R-26)| Tyler Vorpagel (R-27)   
56         
57   Paul Tittl (R-25)      
58   Joan Ballweg (R-41)      
59         
60   Kevin Petersen (R-40)      
61   Jon Plumer (R-42) | Dave Considine (D-81)   
62         
63   Tony Kurtz (R-50) | Scott Krug (R-63)   
64   Nancy VanderMeer (R-70)      
65   Jill Billings (D-95)      
66   Steve Doyle (D-94)      
67   Treig Pronschinske (R-92)      
68         
69   John Spiros (R-86)      
70   Michael Schraa (R-53)      
71   Gordon Hintz (D-54)      
72   Mike Rohrkaste (R-55)      
73   Ron Tusler (R-03)      
74   Joel Kitchens (R-01) | Shae A. Sortwell (R-02)   
75   John Macco (R-88)      
76         
77         
78   Staush Gruszynski (D-90)      
79   David Steffen (R-04)      
80   Jeffrey Mursau (R-36) | John Nygren (R-89)   
81   Gary Tauchen (R-06)      
82   Jim Steineke (R-05)? | David Murphy (R-56)   
83         
84   Amanda Stuck (D-57)      
85   Katrina Shankland (D-71)      
86   Bob Kulp (R-69)      
87   Patrick Snyder (R-85)      
88   Jesse L. James (R-68)      
89   Jodi Emerson (D-91)      
90   Warren Petryk (R-93)      
91   Shannon Zimmerman (R-30)      
92         
93   Gae Magnafici (R-29) | Rob Stafsholt (R-29)   
94   Rob Summerfield (R-67) | James Edming (R-87)   
95   Mary Felzkowski (R-35)      
96   Rob Swearingen (R-34)      
97   Romaine Quinn (R-75)      
98   Beth Meyers (D-74)      
99   Nick Milroy (D-73)      

[Gass3268]

Here is the same thing for the State Senate.

1   Robert W. Wirch (D-22)      
2   Van H. Wanggaard (R-21)      
3   Stephen L. Nass (R-11)      
4   Janis A. Ringhand (D-15)      
5         
6   Jon Erpenbach (D-27)      
7   Fred A. Risser (D-26)      
8   Mark Miller (D-16)      
9   Scott L. Fitzgerald (R-13)      
10   Dale Kooyenga (R-05)? | Chris Kapenga (R-33)   
11   Duey Stroebel (R-20)      
12   David Craig (R-28)      
13         
14         
15   Tim Carpenter (D-03)      
16   Lena C. Taylor (D-04) | LaTonya Johnson (D-06)   
17   Chris Larson (D-07) | Alberta Darling (R-08)   
18   Dan Feyen (R-18)      
19   Devin LeMahieu (R-19)      
20   Luther S. Olsen (R-14)      
21   Howard L. Marklein (R-17)      
22   Jennifer Shilling (D-32)      
23         
24         
25         
26   André Jacque (R-01) | Robert L. Cowles (R-02) | Dave Hansen (D-30)
27         
28   Roger Roth (R-19)      
29   Patrick Testin (R-24) | Jerry Petrowski (R-29)   
30   Kathleen Bernier (R-23) | Jeff Smith (D-31)   
31   Patty Schachtner (D-10)      
32   Thomas Tiffany (R-12)      
33   Janet Bewley (D-25)      

[Beet]

A year ago the Dems were in good shape in WI. Heck, six months ago they were. What happened? Three straight months of AOC, AOC, AOC, and throw in Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib while you're at it. This is not a faaaar left country. Lauren Underwood and Abby Spanberger represent the median voter who swings Democrat, not AOC. Nancy Pelosi needs to get control of her caucus.

Lauren Underwood is actually one of the most liberal Democrats, according to VoteView

She's a freshman, the youngest black woman in Congress, and unlike AOC, Pressley, Omar & Tlaib she actually won in a swing district that is 85% white. And as you said, she's pretty liberal according to VoteView.

But... wait for it...

"-- she's looking to reform the system, not replace it. "

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-youngest-black-woman-in-congress-has-an-alternative-to-medicare-for-all/

[Gass3268]

Here are some regional Assembly maps for Milwaukee, Madison, and the Fox Valley/Cities: