Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 17, 2019, 10:09:29 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, x)
  More embarrassing Dem loss: FL-2018 or WI-2019
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: What loss was more embarrassing for Democrats?
#1Florida Gov/Sen 2018  
#2Wisconsin SC in 2019  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 108

Author Topic: More embarrassing Dem loss: FL-2018 or WI-2019  (Read 1213 times)
Tekken_Guy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,346
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 03, 2019, 12:09:41 pm »

Which race that should have been a shoo-in for Democrats but was narrowly won by the GOP was more embarrassing? The Florida gubernatorial and Senate races in 2018 or the Wisconsin Supreme Court election of 2019?
Logged
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,724
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2019, 12:14:19 pm »

The one with normal levels of election turnout.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,954
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2019, 12:37:20 pm »

Easily WI-2019. The fact that they couldn’t win statewide in a Trump +<1 #resistance state with special election turnout and a massive financial advantage in their favor is embarrassing.
Logged
Still couldn't quell the Bel
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,437
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2019, 12:44:47 pm »
« Edited: April 03, 2019, 01:20:19 pm by NV less likely to flip than FL »

The one in which an incumbent napped until September and lost at the same time as several Democratic incumbents and even challengers in more hostile territory won. Special elections are kind of crapshoots when it comes to predicting turnout. There's no reason Nelson should have lost in a D+8 midterm.
Logged
Priest of Moloch
sjoycefla
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,019
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.48, S: -4.87

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2019, 12:57:37 pm »

the one that actually matters lmao
Logged
Ses
jk2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,296


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2019, 12:59:48 pm »

Florida for sure, lol.
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,548
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: 4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2019, 01:30:04 pm »

Logged
Nyvin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,539
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 03, 2019, 01:34:45 pm »

Florida easily.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,530
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2019, 01:45:09 pm »
« Edited: April 03, 2019, 01:50:27 pm by Let Dogs Survive »

Florida, because Nelson really had no excuse to do so terribly. Even when considering the natural GOP tilt, or how pretty much everyone except Nikki Fried struggled.

If you removed Nelson from the equation, I'd have to give it a coin flip though.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,597
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 03, 2019, 01:46:23 pm »

Florida. This year's race can easily be explained away by several different factors all having to do with off-year dynamics. Florida's elections had high turnout in a Dem wave and they still lost.
Logged
Chancellor S019
S019
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,133
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 03, 2019, 02:48:10 pm »

Florida, because they were expected to win it, and it really lowers 2020 expectations


WI was just a reversion to the norm of a swing state,after showing signs of Tilting D
Logged
Nyvin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,539
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 03, 2019, 03:21:13 pm »

Easily WI-2019. The fact that they couldn’t win statewide in a Trump +<1 #resistance state with special election turnout and a massive financial advantage in their favor is embarrassing.

Neubauer lost by 0.5% in an election with ~25% turnout.   There was nothing all that bad about that loss at all.   It was just a normal tight election that just so happen to go to the Republicans.
Logged
Duke of York
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 367


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 03, 2019, 03:39:15 pm »

Easily WI-2019. The fact that they couldn’t win statewide in a Trump +<1 #resistance state with special election turnout and a massive financial advantage in their favor is embarrassing.

Neubauer lost by 0.5% in an election with ~25% turnout.   There was nothing all that bad about that loss at all.   It was just a normal tight election that just so happen to go to the Republicans.

I agree and to overanalyze it to say the state is safe R in 2020 is ludicrous
Logged
UncleSam
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,520
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 03, 2019, 04:08:13 pm »

I still think a number of R losses last year were more embarrassing than either of these, but Wisconsin-2019 of these two. Florida is a less elastic state and was during a polarizing midterm, while Wisconsin is a swinger state with a stronger Dem tradition.
Logged
Senator Peanut
Peanut
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,433
Costa Rica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 03, 2019, 04:42:16 pm »

The one in which an incumbent napped until September and lost at the same time as several Democratic incumbents and even challengers in more hostile territory won. Special elections are kind of crapshoots when it comes to predicting turnout. There's no reason Nelson should have lost in a D+8 midterm.
Logged
Orser67
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,711
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 03, 2019, 06:23:37 pm »

Imo, the FL-Sen loss is the most embarrassing Democratic loss since Martha Coakley left office.

An incumbent senator losing a swing state during a midterm of the opposite party's presidency just shouldn't happen.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,641
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 03, 2019, 11:24:36 pm »

Imo, the FL-Sen loss is the most embarrassing Democratic loss since Martha Coakley left office.

An incumbent senator losing a swing state during a midterm of the opposite party's presidency just shouldn't happen.

I would argue that Florida is a red state masquerading as a swing state. To be a true swing state both parties need to show they can win at least some high profile races. FL Dems haven’t been able to do that since 2012. They have a worse statewide track record of late than MO/MT/WV/KY Dems and we’re not calling those swing states.
I agree. A close margin does NOT mean a race is always a tossup race. Florida has a slight but incredibly inelastic GOP lean.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,797
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: April 04, 2019, 11:43:08 am »

FL due to fact Nelson underestimated Scott and polls showed Gillum beating Desantis so bad. It was an embarrassing loss to 2 underdogs
Logged
North Fulton Swing
mollybecky
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,088


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: April 07, 2019, 06:31:46 am »

Florida easily.  In a Democratic year, they should have won both the governorship and Senate seat.   But Gillum was a lousy candidate, and Nelson completely underestimated Scott.
Logged
LabourJersey
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 968
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2019, 01:38:37 pm »

The one in which an incumbent napped until September and lost at the same time as several Democratic incumbents and even challengers in more hostile territory won. Special elections are kind of crapshoots when it comes to predicting turnout. There's no reason Nelson should have lost in a D+8 midterm.
Logged
Roll Roons
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 804
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: April 07, 2019, 02:22:02 pm »

The one in which an incumbent napped until September and lost at the same time as several Democratic incumbents and even challengers in more hostile territory won. Special elections are kind of crapshoots when it comes to predicting turnout. There's no reason Nelson should have lost in a D+8 midterm.

Plus Democrats would have had a much easier road to taking back the Senate in 2020 had Nelson held on.
Logged
Pandaguineapig
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,589
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2019, 03:17:42 pm »

Florida, I still remember when red avatars insisted that it was impossible for Bill Nelson to lose to Rick Scott
Logged
Esteemed Jimmy7812
Jimmy7812
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,725
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.54, S: -1.67

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: April 07, 2019, 07:58:19 pm »

The one in which an incumbent napped until September and lost at the same time as several Democratic incumbents and even challengers in more hostile territory won. Special elections are kind of crapshoots when it comes to predicting turnout. There's no reason Nelson should have lost in a D+8 midterm.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC