More embarrassing Dem loss: FL-2018 or WI-2019

[Tekken_Guy]

Which race that should have been a shoo-in for Democrats but was narrowly won by the GOP was more embarrassing? The Florida gubernatorial and Senate races in 2018 or the Wisconsin Supreme Court election of 2019?

[Politician]

The one with normal levels of election turnout.

[Xing]

The one in which an incumbent napped until September and lost at the same time as several Democratic incumbents and even challengers in more hostile territory won. Special elections are kind of crapshoots when it comes to predicting turnout. There's no reason Nelson should have lost in a D+8 midterm.

[Donerail]

the one that actually matters lmao

[Sestak]

Florida for sure, lol.

[😥]

Florida for sure, lol.

[Nyvin]

Florida easily.

[Mr. Smith]

Florida, because Nelson really had no excuse to do so terribly. Even when considering the natural GOP tilt, or how pretty much everyone except Nikki Fried struggled.

If you removed Nelson from the equation, I'd have to give it a coin flip though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida. This year's race can easily be explained away by several different factors all having to do with off-year dynamics. Florida's elections had high turnout in a Dem wave and they still lost.

[S019]

Florida, because they were expected to win it, and it really lowers 2020 expectations


WI was just a reversion to the norm of a swing state,after showing signs of Tilting D

[Nyvin]

Easily WI-2019. The fact that they couldn’t win statewide in a Trump +<1 #resistance state with special election turnout and a massive financial advantage in their favor is embarrassing.

Neubauer lost by 0.5% in an election with ~25% turnout.   There was nothing all that bad about that loss at all.   It was just a normal tight election that just so happen to go to the Republicans.

[Duke of York]

Easily WI-2019. The fact that they couldn’t win statewide in a Trump +<1 #resistance state with special election turnout and a massive financial advantage in their favor is embarrassing.

Neubauer lost by 0.5% in an election with ~25% turnout.   There was nothing all that bad about that loss at all.   It was just a normal tight election that just so happen to go to the Republicans.

I agree and to overanalyze it to say the state is safe R in 2020 is ludicrous

[UncleSam]

I still think a number of R losses last year were more embarrassing than either of these, but Wisconsin-2019 of these two. Florida is a less elastic state and was during a polarizing midterm, while Wisconsin is a swinger state with a stronger Dem tradition.

[Peanut]

The one in which an incumbent napped until September and lost at the same time as several Democratic incumbents and even challengers in more hostile territory won. Special elections are kind of crapshoots when it comes to predicting turnout. There's no reason Nelson should have lost in a D+8 midterm.

[Orser67]

Imo, the FL-Sen loss is the most embarrassing Democratic loss since Martha Coakley left office.

An incumbent senator losing a swing state during a midterm of the opposite party's presidency just shouldn't happen.

[Young Conservative]

Imo, the FL-Sen loss is the most embarrassing Democratic loss since Martha Coakley left office.

An incumbent senator losing a swing state during a midterm of the opposite party's presidency just shouldn't happen.

I would argue that Florida is a red state masquerading as a swing state. To be a true swing state both parties need to show they can win at least some high profile races. FL Dems haven’t been able to do that since 2012. They have a worse statewide track record of late than MO/MT/WV/KY Dems and we’re not calling those swing states.

I agree. A close margin does NOT mean a race is always a tossup race. Florida has a slight but incredibly inelastic GOP lean.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL due to fact Nelson underestimated Scott and polls showed Gillum beating Desantis so bad. It was an embarrassing loss to 2 underdogs

[Podgy the Bear]

Florida easily.  In a Democratic year, they should have won both the governorship and Senate seat.   But Gillum was a lousy candidate, and Nelson completely underestimated Scott.

[LabourJersey]

The one in which an incumbent napped until September and lost at the same time as several Democratic incumbents and even challengers in more hostile territory won. Special elections are kind of crapshoots when it comes to predicting turnout. There's no reason Nelson should have lost in a D+8 midterm.

[Roll Roons]

The one in which an incumbent napped until September and lost at the same time as several Democratic incumbents and even challengers in more hostile territory won. Special elections are kind of crapshoots when it comes to predicting turnout. There's no reason Nelson should have lost in a D+8 midterm.

Plus Democrats would have had a much easier road to taking back the Senate in 2020 had Nelson held on.

[Pandaguineapig]

Florida, I still remember when red avatars insisted that it was impossible for Bill Nelson to lose to Rick Scott

[Esteemed Jimmy]

The one in which an incumbent napped until September and lost at the same time as several Democratic incumbents and even challengers in more hostile territory won. Special elections are kind of crapshoots when it comes to predicting turnout. There's no reason Nelson should have lost in a D+8 midterm.