Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 15, 2019, 11:37:08 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  2021 VA Executive Mansion
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Poll
Question: Who wins in November 2021 to succeed the scandal-plagued Northam ?
#1
Dem Hold
 
#2
GOP
 
#3
Toss-Up
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 102

Author Topic: 2021 VA Executive Mansion  (Read 3405 times)
LoneStarDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 981
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 03, 2019, 03:12:42 pm »

I know it's early, but how do you rate the 2021 contest for the VA Executive Mansion ?
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,720


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2019, 03:14:30 pm »

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.
Logged
Landslide Warren
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,804
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2019, 03:21:24 pm »

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.
Logged
TML
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,225


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2019, 04:46:14 pm »

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.
Logged
LoneStarDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 981
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2019, 04:58:17 pm »

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

We're going to find out soon enough.
Logged
JMT
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 923



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2019, 05:22:02 pm »

Dems hold the governors mansion, if I had to guess. The real question is who could be the Democratic nominee? A few months ago, I thought it would be a battle between Justin Fairfax and Mark Herring, but that seems unlikely now... Perhaps Levar Stoney runs? I could also see Tom Perriello doing well if he runs again. Maybe one  of the new members of Congress (Wexton, Spanberger, or Luria) decides to run? None of them would have to give up their seats, because itís an off year election.
Logged
Georgia Is A Swing State
RFKFan68
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2019, 05:47:58 pm »

Tom Perriello run please.
Logged
Beshear al Assad
peenie_weenie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,742
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 03, 2019, 05:57:52 pm »

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

It's true, may be within single digits if Trump loses.

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

I think we have enough evidence to say that this trend effectively stopped in 2013 and VA now votes as a solid blue state. The only reason this fell into the "trend" in 2017 was because the President was a Republican and VA would have still voted comfortably for Northam if Hillary won.
Logged
Roll Roons
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 850
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2019, 06:08:57 pm »

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

It's true, may be within single digits if Trump loses.

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

I think we have enough evidence to say that this trend effectively stopped in 2013 and VA now votes as a solid blue state. The only reason this fell into the "trend" in 2017 was because the President was a Republican and VA would have still voted comfortably for Northam if Hillary won.

Let's be honest, the trend would have held in 2013 if the VAGOP had nominated Bolling. T-Mac was not seen as a good candidate.
Logged
Beshear al Assad
peenie_weenie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,742
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 03, 2019, 06:25:08 pm »

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

It's true, may be within single digits if Trump loses.

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

I think we have enough evidence to say that this trend effectively stopped in 2013 and VA now votes as a solid blue state. The only reason this fell into the "trend" in 2017 was because the President was a Republican and VA would have still voted comfortably for Northam if Hillary won.

Let's be honest, the trend would have held in 2013 if the VAGOP had nominated Bolling. T-Mac was not seen as a good candidate.

Maybe. Bolling generated zero excitement. People forget that 2013 was still in the midst of the Tea Party phase and that wing of the party is where all of the energy in the Republican Party was.

Bolling vs. T-Mac would have been lawful neutral vs. lawful neutral instead of lawful neutral vs. chaotic evil. Kuccinelli was chaotic evil but chaotic still brings your base out to vote even if it drives the other side out as well.
Logged
Virginia
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,756
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 03, 2019, 06:33:31 pm »

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

I don't think the people are consciously voting this way. I think the trends in presidential politics and Virginia's transition from a Solid South state to a brief Republican state to a Democratic state again just happened to create a situation where it looked like people were picking Governors methodically but really it's just because neither party had an iron grip on the state and so a backlash to the party that controlled the White House was enough to put the "out party" over in Virginia executive races.

But fast forward to 2013-2017, where polarization and VA's Democratic trend meant that there are no longer enough ticket splitters or residual GOP strength to overcome the dominant party's grip on power.
Logged
Inevitable Barbara Bollier
hummus_con_pita
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,077
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 03, 2019, 06:41:47 pm »

Yeah, the whole "elect governors of opposite party" thing is more coincidence than causation Ė Wyoming also had a similar pattern for longer than Virginia, if I recall correctly, but Mark Gordon pretty easily waltzed into office.
Logged
Senator Peanut
Peanut
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,492
Costa Rica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 03, 2019, 07:18:44 pm »

Logged
Oashigo
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 329
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2019, 07:06:50 am »

Logged
Chancellor S019
S019
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,198
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 04, 2019, 07:12:23 am »

Democratic hold

May flip if Trump loses and the Dem has horrendous approvals, abd the GOP nomniates a moderate
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,791
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: 4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 04, 2019, 08:13:27 am »

Logged
SunriseAroundTheWorld
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,863
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 05, 2019, 03:31:02 pm »

lol at virginia gop winning things
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,722
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: April 05, 2019, 09:47:13 pm »

Dem hold
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,003
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2019, 03:50:27 am »

If Trump wins: Safe D, Democrats +12-16
If Trump loses: Safe D, Democrats +8-12

Iím probably being too generous to Republicans.
Logged
Fuzzy Bear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,628
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: April 06, 2019, 10:49:57 am »

I'm predicting a Republcan sweep of all statewide offices in 2021.  It may be the last time in my lifetime that ever happens, but the Democrats in VA have shot themselves in the foot in ways I never dreamed possible.

If the body of Democrats had accepted Northam's apology quietly and gone onward, they would not be where they are now.  Where they are now is in the status of being a collective laughingstock.  And, on top of all of that, their own behavior was catalytic in bringing up the worst allegations; the actual sexual allegations against their Lt. Governor, Justin Fairfax.  (And they all came out AFTER Democratic pols called for Northam's resignation saying things like how Justin Fairfax was "the Governor VA needs right now".

Perhaps the Democrats have learned the wisdom of not hammering people for what they did in 1984 by the standards of 2019.  Then, again, we are a nation of slow learners, so . . .
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,433
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: April 06, 2019, 10:56:23 am »

D hold because Trump is winning reelection
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,146


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: April 06, 2019, 12:16:08 pm »

Depends on who is the WH
Logged
PA is Lean D
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,460
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: April 06, 2019, 02:58:33 pm »

D hold because Trump is winning reelection
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,003
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: April 06, 2019, 03:23:14 pm »


Republicans hold MD-GOV if Trump loses reelection tbh
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,720


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: April 06, 2019, 03:33:46 pm »

I'm predicting a Republcan sweep of all statewide offices in 2021.  It may be the last time in my lifetime that ever happens, but the Democrats in VA have shot themselves in the foot in ways I never dreamed possible.


I would be predicting a Republican sweep of all statewide offices too... if this was the 1990s.

Polarization has become too much of a force for these scandals to matter, and they'll have no effect especially considering almost everyone was calling for Northam and Fairfax to resign, and the AG's scandal was handled basically perfectly by him. Grietens and his issues didn't cost Republicans in Missouri, so why would the scandals that VA Democrats had hurt Democrats who had nothing to do with those scandals?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC