2021 VA Executive Mansion

[LoneStarDem]

I know it's early, but how do you rate the 2021 contest for the VA Executive Mansion ?

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

[Politician]

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

[TML]

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

[LoneStarDem]

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

We're going to find out soon enough.

[JMT]

Dems hold the governors mansion, if I had to guess. The real question is who could be the Democratic nominee? A few months ago, I thought it would be a battle between Justin Fairfax and Mark Herring, but that seems unlikely now... Perhaps Levar Stoney runs? I could also see Tom Perriello doing well if he runs again. Maybe one  of the new members of Congress (Wexton, Spanberger, or Luria) decides to run? None of them would have to give up their seats, because it’s an off year election.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tom Perriello run please.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

It's true, may be within single digits if Trump loses.

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

I think we have enough evidence to say that this trend effectively stopped in 2013 and VA now votes as a solid blue state. The only reason this fell into the "trend" in 2017 was because the President was a Republican and VA would have still voted comfortably for Northam if Hillary won.

[Roll Roons]

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

It's true, may be within single digits if Trump loses.

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

I think we have enough evidence to say that this trend effectively stopped in 2013 and VA now votes as a solid blue state. The only reason this fell into the "trend" in 2017 was because the President was a Republican and VA would have still voted comfortably for Northam if Hillary won.

Let's be honest, the trend would have held in 2013 if the VAGOP had nominated Bolling. T-Mac was not seen as a good candidate.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

It's true, may be within single digits if Trump loses.

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

I think we have enough evidence to say that this trend effectively stopped in 2013 and VA now votes as a solid blue state. The only reason this fell into the "trend" in 2017 was because the President was a Republican and VA would have still voted comfortably for Northam if Hillary won.

Let's be honest, the trend would have held in 2013 if the VAGOP had nominated Bolling. T-Mac was not seen as a good candidate.

Maybe. Bolling generated zero excitement. People forget that 2013 was still in the midst of the Tea Party phase and that wing of the party is where all of the energy in the Republican Party was.

Bolling vs. T-Mac would have been lawful neutral vs. lawful neutral instead of lawful neutral vs. chaotic evil. Kuccinelli was chaotic evil but chaotic still brings your base out to vote even if it drives the other side out as well.

[Virginiá]

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

I don't think the people are consciously voting this way. I think the trends in presidential politics and Virginia's transition from a Solid South state to a brief Republican state to a Democratic state again just happened to create a situation where it looked like people were picking Governors methodically but really it's just because neither party had an iron grip on the state and so a backlash to the party that controlled the White House was enough to put the "out party" over in Virginia executive races.

But fast forward to 2013-2017, where polarization and VA's Democratic trend meant that there are no longer enough ticket splitters or residual GOP strength to overcome the dominant party's grip on power.

[Boobs]

Yeah, the whole "elect governors of opposite party" thing is more coincidence than causation – Wyoming also had a similar pattern for longer than Virginia, if I recall correctly, but Mark Gordon pretty easily waltzed into office.

[Peanut]

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

[Galeel]

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

[S019]

Democratic hold

May flip if Trump loses and the Dem has horrendous approvals, abd the GOP nomniates a moderate

[😥]

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dem hold

[MT Treasurer]

If Trump wins: Safe D, Democrats +12-16
If Trump loses: Safe D, Democrats +8-12

I’m probably being too generous to Republicans.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I'm predicting a Republcan sweep of all statewide offices in 2021.  It may be the last time in my lifetime that ever happens, but the Democrats in VA have shot themselves in the foot in ways I never dreamed possible.

If the body of Democrats had accepted Northam's apology quietly and gone onward, they would not be where they are now.  Where they are now is in the status of being a collective laughingstock.  And, on top of all of that, their own behavior was catalytic in bringing up the worst allegations; the actual sexual allegations against their Lt. Governor, Justin Fairfax.  (And they all came out AFTER Democratic pols called for Northam's resignation saying things like how Justin Fairfax was "the Governor VA needs right now".

Perhaps the Democrats have learned the wisdom of not hammering people for what they did in 1984 by the standards of 2019.  Then, again, we are a nation of slow learners, so . . .

[Del Tachi]

D hold because Trump is winning reelection

[OSR stands with Israel]

Depends on who is the WH

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

D hold because Trump is winning reelection

[MT Treasurer]

D hold because Trump is winning reelection

Republicans hold MD-GOV if Trump loses reelection tbh

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I'm predicting a Republcan sweep of all statewide offices in 2021.  It may be the last time in my lifetime that ever happens, but the Democrats in VA have shot themselves in the foot in ways I never dreamed possible.

I would be predicting a Republican sweep of all statewide offices too... if this was the 1990s.

Polarization has become too much of a force for these scandals to matter, and they'll have no effect especially considering almost everyone was calling for Northam and Fairfax to resign, and the AG's scandal was handled basically perfectly by him. Grietens and his issues didn't cost Republicans in Missouri, so why would the scandals that VA Democrats had hurt Democrats who had nothing to do with those scandals?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I'm predicting a Republcan sweep of all statewide offices in 2021.  It may be the last time in my lifetime that ever happens, but the Democrats in VA have shot themselves in the foot in ways I never dreamed possible.

If the body of Democrats had accepted Northam's apology quietly and gone onward, they would not be where they are now.  Where they are now is in the status of being a collective laughingstock.  And, on top of all of that, their own behavior was catalytic in bringing up the worst allegations; the actual sexual allegations against their Lt. Governor, Justin Fairfax.  (And they all came out AFTER Democratic pols called for Northam's resignation saying things like how Justin Fairfax was "the Governor VA needs right now".

Perhaps the Democrats have learned the wisdom of not hammering people for what they did in 1984 by the standards of 2019.  Then, again, we are a nation of slow learners, so . . .

Okay. Looking forward to Dems picking up 4-5 seats in the Senate in 2019 despite being the "a collective laughingstock"

The thing that none of the Republicans who concern-troll over the blackface stuff care about is that the VAGOP is toxic and couldn't beat a Democratic party that inadvertently tied one of its behind its back. You're talking about a party that lost a 2-1 House of Delegates majority in one election, nominated a Neo Confederate to run against Tim Kaine, and thought that running on MS-13 would win them a governorship when Trump ran an anti-immigrant campaign and lost Virginia decisively.

Anybody who is paying attention to this stuff beyond what they see in a USGD thread will realize that the vast majority of Democratic voters can separate dumb stuff that Northam did from the entire rest of the state party apparatus.

Safe D.