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September 20, 2019, 11:37:05 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  2022 PA Governor's Residence
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Question: How do you rate this contest to succeed PA Governor Thomas Wolf (D) ?
#1Dem Hold  
#2Leans GOP  
#3Toss-Up  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 34

Author Topic: 2022 PA Governor's Residence  (Read 733 times)
LoneStarDem
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« on: April 04, 2019, 03:48:33 pm »

I know it's just a little bit early, but how do you rate the battle to succeed PA Governor Thomas Wolf (D), who will be leaving office on January 17th, 2023 ?

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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2019, 10:08:21 pm »

Pennsylvania has a long history of electing Republicans to follow Democrats, after each party serves two (2) terms. 

1970  Milton Shapp (D)
1974  Milton Shapp (D)

1978  Dick Thornburgh (R)
1982  Dick Thornburgh (R)

1986  Bob Casey (D)
1990  Bob Casey (D)

1994  Tom Ridge (R)
1998  Tom Ridge (R)

2002  Ed Rendell (D)
2006  Ed Rendell (D)

2010  Tom Corbett (R)
2014  Tom Wolf (D)
2018  Tom Wolf (D)


That's a pretty solid, enduring pattern.  Wolf was the only Governor in my lifetime to oust an incumbent Governor.
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S019
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2019, 10:12:31 pm »

Ask me on Nov. 4, 2020

Lean R if Dems win Presidency

Leam D if Trump wins re-election
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Pittsburgh For Kamala
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2019, 10:23:31 pm »

Dem hold. The party has a large and powerful bench, and the GOP has virtually nobody in the state that could fight back in the suburbs.

If the nominee is Fetterman, it won't matter who the Republican is or who has the keys to the WH. The mansion is his.

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2019, 10:29:35 pm »

Dem hold. The party has a large and powerful bench, and the GOP has virtually nobody in the state that could fight back in the suburbs.

If the nominee is Fetterman, it won't matter who the Republican is or who has the keys to the WH. The mansion is his.



Brian Fitzpatrick (hoping he survives 2020) could win it. Maybe even Ryan Costello or Charlie Dent.
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Pittsburgh For Kamala
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« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2019, 10:33:19 pm »

Dem hold. The party has a large and powerful bench, and the GOP has virtually nobody in the state that could fight back in the suburbs.

If the nominee is Fetterman, it won't matter who the Republican is or who has the keys to the WH. The mansion is his.



Brian Fitzpatrick (hoping he survives 2020) could win it. Maybe even Ryan Costello or Charlie Dent.

None of them would beat Fetterman.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2019, 04:01:37 am »

Ask me after 2022 primaries. Both parties are prone to nominating idiotic candidates now (examples: Kansas Republicans in 2018, and Maryland Democrats both in 2014 and 2018)....
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Ishan
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2019, 06:56:26 am »

Hopefully, the Democrats don't nominate McGinty
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Orser67
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2019, 12:05:42 pm »

Lean R if Dems win Presidency

Leam D if Trump wins re-election
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2019, 12:10:02 pm »

Dem hold. The party has a large and powerful bench, and the GOP has virtually nobody in the state that could fight back in the suburbs.

If the nominee is Fetterman, it won't matter who the Republican is or who has the keys to the WH. The mansion is his.



Brian Fitzpatrick (hoping he survives 2020) could win it. Maybe even Ryan Costello or Charlie Dent.
The Republican Party is not gonna nominate a moderate. They have jumped off the deep end and will nominate a Trumpist.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2019, 12:33:42 pm »

-snip-

The Republican Party is not gonna nominate a moderate. They have jumped off the deep end and will nominate a Trumpist.

The Trump people are the moderates. You live in the state that elected Rick Santorum and Pat Toomey and drove out Arlen Specter.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2019, 12:49:41 pm »

-snip-

The Republican Party is not gonna nominate a moderate. They have jumped off the deep end and will nominate a Trumpist.

The Trump people are the moderates. You live in the state that elected Rick Santorum and Pat Toomey and drove out Arlen Specter.

Trump people are anybody, but moderates. Fitzpatrick, Costello, Dent, Specter (in the past) are moderates (more or less), but, with Republicans losing their influence in suburban SE Pennsylvania, their influence decreased accordingly...
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UncleSam
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2019, 01:06:24 pm »

Itíll go R either way most likely. The eight-year itch is strong in most of these places, and Pennsylvania is trending R pretty hard anyway. Lean R seems reasonable to me at this point, though I could see itís up if Trump wins.
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Pittsburgh For Kamala
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« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2019, 02:35:59 pm »

Itíll go R either way most likely. The eight-year itch is strong in most of these places, and Pennsylvania is trending R pretty hard anyway. Lean R seems reasonable to me at this point, though I could see itís up if Trump wins.

Uhhh no it's not.

Did you sleep through the midterms?
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Politician
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« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2019, 02:38:28 pm »

Itíll go R either way most likely. The eight-year itch is strong in most of these places, and Pennsylvania is trending R pretty hard anyway. Lean R seems reasonable to me at this point, though I could see itís up if Trump wins.

Uhhh no it's not.

Did you sleep through the midterms?
It's a waste of time trying to reason with him. He's convinced Arizona is a deep red state and that McSally will win easily even though he said that in 2018 only to get burned.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2019, 10:05:53 pm »

Doyle runs for Gov and Conor Lamb runs against Toomey



Dems pickup IA(Hubbell returns), MD(Rushurn Baker returns)and NH
GOP pickups KS
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TheBeardedOne
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« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2019, 02:52:29 am »

Doyle runs for Gov and Conor Lamb runs against Toomey



Dems pickup IA(Hubbell returns), MD(Rushurn Baker returns)and NH
GOP pickups KS

No John Fetterman?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #17 on: April 10, 2019, 04:21:03 am »

Yes, Doyle, Fetterman or Lamb will fit either Gov or Sen
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