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July 17, 2019, 08:21:47 am
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  Why did Idaho swing R in 2018-GUB?
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Author Topic: Why did Idaho swing R in 2018-GUB?  (Read 723 times)
Swing State Ohio
bagelman
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« on: April 05, 2019, 01:22:50 am »

Any reason? I know it's not a state that gets or really deserves much attention being Safe R. I know that Jordan was a Native that went to the Woman's March in Las Vegas and was endorsed by some pop singer. Did that hurt her somehow or was Little less controversial among moderates than Otter?
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Politician
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« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2019, 06:36:31 am »

Otter had lost the backing of a lot of conservatives in 2014 and Balukoff was a good candidate, and 2014 gubernatorials were less polarized.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2019, 02:40:31 pm »

The wave wasnt big enough to sweep over ID. Billy Sutton could of won, but lost by 4
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Sestak
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« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2019, 12:25:26 am »

Otter had lost the backing of a lot of conservatives in 2014 and Balukoff was a good candidate, and 2014 gubernatorials were less polarized.

Pretty much this.
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Pericles
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« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2019, 03:51:01 am »

Idaho 2018 had record turnout, a 37.6% increase from 2014 (and this would be more significant than most states due to how small it is). Jordan's vote count was actually a majority of the 2014 votes. So it could be mainly a big increase in turnout, in such a small and solidly Republican state, altered the margin. I'm not sure why turnout increased so much and whether it was just normal 2018 turnout being better than 2014 or some Idaho-specific factors.
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« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2019, 11:12:17 am »

Otter had lost the backing of a lot of conservatives in 2014 and Balukoff was a good candidate, and 2014 gubernatorials were less polarized.

Pretty much this.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2019, 12:41:01 pm »

Little put in...a little more effort than Otter.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2019, 12:18:16 pm »

I remember Otter being highly unpopular, and I think if it had just been Russ Fulcher in the primary, he probably would have toppled the incumbent. But then that GOP primary debate went viral and everyone was talking about how bizarre everyone else was (Harley Brown in particular). I thought I read somewhere that Otter demanded a televised debate with every candidate on purpose so people could see who he was up against.  But he only won that primary with 51%.

I can't speak for turnout, but I'm willing to bet that voters were finally happy to see someone besides Otter on the ballot, they came out to vote for him. His vote share in 2014 was probably depressed because people who wanted someone else on the GOP ticket just didn't vote for him.
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