Forward: A 2020 Timeline

[NickCT]

[Continential]

Nice Photoshopping!

[NickCT]

June 26, 2019

In First Debate, Buttigieg and Warren Steal Show While Harris, O’Rourke Fend Off Attacks



(Miami, FL) — In the first 2020 presidential debate, South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) again drew national attention for his answers to tough questions. Buttigieg outlined a holistic vision for the country, touching specifically on his own personal narrative and experience as a mayor of a community in a red state. “Mayor Pete,” as he is commonly known, said he was the candidate best prepared to take on Donald Trump in the general election because he has won on Mike Pence’s “own turf.” Focus groups responded to Buttigieg’s answers on reaching out to working-class voters.

Another highlight came from Elizabeth Warren, who blasted some of her opponents, particularly Beto O’Rourke, for lacking specific policies. “I am in this fight for real,” Warren told the audience. “I have real plans with specific ideas to get America working again - and working for all people, particularly the working class.” She made a veiled criticism of “some of [her] opponents” who “set up websites with videos and merchandise” but lacked “real ideas.” The senator also touched on some of her policy proposals - including a tax on the uber-rich and a plan for affordable housing.

O’Rourke was under siege from Warren and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, who got into the race in May. The mayor of New York made fun of O’Rourke’s campaign style while demanding a “candidate of substance.” Perhaps in an effort to distinguish himself, de Blasio also attacked California Senator Kamala Harris for her record on criminal justice reform. He said that as mayor he has taken on the issue of police misconduct and criminal justice reform while Harris “went after low-income parents” in an effort to curb truancy. Harris worked to defend her record, claiming that the truancy issue was more complicated and long-term will lead to less crime.

Though he has left a positive impression on the stump, O’Rourke struggled to answer questions from the debate moderators. When asked about the Green New Deal, O’Rourke struggled to explain what parts of it he liked and what parts he disagreed with. In a split-screen moment, Senator Warren was found shaking her head while O’Rourke grasped for an answer. Many in the audience laughed.

The debates were the first time that candidates have really attacked one another within the primary. Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel, whose campaign began in April with the help of progressive high school students who drafted him into the race, consistently brought his message back to an anti-imperialist platform. He said that he saw “no candidate” on stage with him who he could trust to “avoid another Iraq.” “Who here is serious about dismantling the military-industrial complex that runs our government?” Gravel asked rhetorically before answering, “I”m afraid I might be the only one.”

#Gravelanche began trending on Twitter as primary voters with liberal foreign politics demanded their preferred candidates sign on to some of Gravel’s policy ideas.

An MSNBC online poll conducted immediately after the debate found that 27% of viewers said Buttigieg won the debate, 20% said Elizabeth Warren did the best, 11% said Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), 6% said Gravel, 6% said de Blasio, and the remaining voters were split among the remaining candidates.

[NickCT]

June 27, 2019

Gillibrand Finds Her Moment and Breaks Through in Second Debate



(Miami, FL) — In the second half of the first presidential primary debate, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) finally found her moment. The New York Senator has struggled in polling and fundraising and just barely made the debate. However, in the night’s debate, she found herself breaking through on a stage with the race’s two front runners: former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Her first real moment came when Sanders started talking about Medicare for All. “No one was talking about this issue four years ago,” Bernie said. “Now - suddenly - everyone’s for Medicare for All. That is the effect of the movement we started in 2015,” he said before implying that some of his opponents were political chameleons. The moderators turned to Gillibrand for her thoughts on health care.

“Well, I have a great amount of respect for Senator Sanders and what he’s done on this issue, but when he was running for Senate in Vermont in 2006, I was running for Congress in a 2-to-1 district and I was talking about creating a pathway to Medicare for All, and I won. I was able to take a message of universal health care and win in a conservative district even though I was running to the left of most of my party.” When Sanders tried to interrupt her, the Senator quipped, “Senator, you had your time, I’m reclaiming mine, thank you.” Before laying out her plan to get the country towards universal coverage.

The debate also gave Gillibrand a chance to respond to criticism of her treatment of former colleague Al Franken (D-MN), who resigned from the Senate after eight women came forward to accuse him of sexual misconduct. “I am a lawyer,” the senator said. “I believe in due process. Senator Franken was entitled to an investigation. He is the one who chose not to go forward. Not me. I had to do what I was right and I had my son, Theo, coming to me and saying, ‘Mom, why are you so tough on Al Franken?’ and I had to tell him, ‘Theo, it is never okay for anyone to forcibly kiss a woman - ever - without her consent.’ If we are only willing to say that to Republicans and not Democrats - well, that’s not brave. That’s hypocrisy. For me this isn’t about politics, it’s about treating one another with respect.”

Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro (D-TX) also gained attention on social media when he led the field on issues of criminal justice reform. He and Gillibrand vocally called for the end of cash bail as a tool to improve criminal justice in the United States.  Biden’s debate performance was hindered by an exchange on the crime issue. Castro went after Biden for his work on the 1994 crime bill, which has now become a third rail with many progressive voters.

The former vice president also took heat from Gillibrand, who, when asked about the Supreme Court, pivoted to the Kavanaugh hearings. “What we saw with Justice Kavanaugh was not new. It happened before. We need to be honest about tis. It happened before with Anita Hill and I have a tremendous respect for Joe Biden, but he was responsible for that. He was responsible for those hearings and he said recently that he wishes he could have done something - well he could have.” Biden interrupted to say he has apologized for how he handled the hearings. “But have you apologized to her? Have you called Anita Hill and told her, “Anita, I am sorry for what I did?” The vice president delivered a sheepish “no.”

In an online poll conducted by MSNBC immediately after the debate, 35% of respondents said they thought Gillibrand had the strongest debate performance, followed by 14% saying Castro, 10% saying Sanders, and the remaining votes divided among the other seven candidates.

[NickCT]

June 29, 2019

Weekly Rundown: Gillibrand Brings in Dough, Bennet Ends Bid, Williamson Fighting for Debate Inclusion

GILLIBRAND RAISES $2.5 MILLION IN 24 HOURS AFTER DEBATE

(Troy, NY) — Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) has been struggling to stand out in a crowded Democratic field, but in the wake of a strong debate performance, her stock is rising. In the 24 hours after her debate performance earlier this week, her campaign raised $2.5 million, a seismic number that rivals some of her opponents’ earlier fundraising successes. Gillibrand has maintained that her campaign is “full steam ahead” and she has added several stops in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada as she steps up her effort to capitalize on post-debate momentum.

SENATOR BENNET BECOMES FIRST CANDIDATE TO END CAMPAIGN

(Denver, CO) — Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO) ended his campaign for the presidency this morning in a video on Twitter. The senator, who formalized his entry into the race just last month, apologized to supporters for ending his campaign. Bennet cited his struggling health (he underwent surgery for cancer removal last month) as his main reason for ending his bid. He said he hopes to rejoin “the resistance” in the future, but will not be doing so as a presidential candidate. He did not endorse a candidate but said he “most likely will” before the Colorado contest.

MARIANNE WILLIAMSON SEEKS TO GET ON THE DEBATE STAGE

(Sacramento, CA) — Marianne Williamson, the author and activist who earlier this year announced a presidential campaign, is making a renewed effort to join the debate stage. Williamson was the 21st candidate to qualify for the stage but was knocked out because of the 20-candidate capacity. Now that the field has been reduced to 19 candidates, Williamson’s campaign is making an aggressive push to pressure the DNC to include her in next month’s CNN debate. There has been no comment from the DNC about the matter.

ANITA HILL SAYS BIDEN HAS CALLED HER TO APOLOGIZE

(Boston, MA) — Professor Anita Hill has confirmed that after the debate this week, former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) called her and apologized for his treatment of her during her testimony in the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) had challenged Biden on the sincerity of his regret, asking if he’d apologized directly to Hill. When Biden said no, his campaign suffered immense blowback. The Biden campaign declined to comment.

[NickCT]

July 6, 2019

Gravel Walks Back Pledge to Drop Out, Says He’s Waiting for “Suitable Candidate”



(Manchester, NH) — At a virtual town hall event at Strange Brew Tavern, former Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK) told voters he was walking back an earlier pledge to leave the race after the second debate. “The problem is that timeline gives me one more month,” he said, “but I don’t think my message is getting through to people. I mean, I really don’t. We have to dismantle the military-industrial complex and yet I don’t see a single other person saying this. I’m ready to stay in this race if I have to.”

An audience member asked the candidate about Tulsi Gabbard, who has also run a campaign focused on ending “wars of choice.” Gravel criticized his opponent. “Tulsi’s got some good points and we agree on a lot, but look - look - she’s out there. She’s said some stuff about Assad that I don’t know - we have to be about peace, too. I’m about peace and justice. And she’s made some excuses for war criminals. America has been a war criminal but so have other nations. I’m absolutely opposed to war. She joined the military. I mean - here’s where we’re at.”

Gravel’s campaign began as a draft movement by several high schoolers. He formally entered the race on April 8 and qualified for the Democratic debates just in time to appear on stage late last month. Since then, his forceful debate responses have led some on the far-left to pay attention to his message.

While his campaign schedule has been scarce, the 88-year-old has increasingly been adding stops around New Hampshire to spread his anti-imperialism message.

[New Jersey Moderate]

very excited about this!

[NickCT]

very excited about this!

Thanks! Me, too!

[NickCT]

July 7, 2019

New Iowa Poll Shows Klobuchar, Gillibrand Gaining Ground



(Des Moines, IA) — A new CNN poll shows that Iowa, home to the first caucus of the 2020 season, is still anyone’s game. Two candidates, Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) have seen their numbers tick upwards after successful debate performances and extensive campaigning in the state.

The poll still shows former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) at the front of the pack, Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) in second, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) in third. Klobuchar, however, has climbed to fourth place. Much of Klobuchar’s strategy rests in Iowa. She has scarcely campaigned in New Hampshire and has been in South Caroline and Nevada even less. From neighboring Minnesota, the senator hopes her pragmatic politics will register here.

Gillibrand, however, still trails much of the pack but, for the first time, is polling at 5%. In many recent polls she was struggling to reach 1%, but she has now emerged as a formidable candidate. The question becomes whether this momentum is found in other states and whether or not it is sustainable. With a recent surge in campaign donations, Gillibrand’s campaign has announced intentions to expand their footprint in Iowa and New Hampshire, focusing on mobilizing voters and creating an active field program ahead of investing in formal advertising.

The full poll results:
Joe Biden … 19%
Bernie Sanders … 14%
Pete Buttigieg … 10%
Amy Klobuchar … 10%
Kamala Harris … 7%
Beto O’Rourke … 7%
Elizabeth Warren … 6%
Cory Booker … 5%
Kirsten Gillibrand … 5%
Julián Castro … 3%
John Hickenlooper … 2%
Jay Inslee … 2%
John Delaney … 1%
Tim Ryan … 1%
Eric Swalwell … 1%
Andrew Yang … 1%
Undecided … 6%

[wjx987]

Pres Gravel pls lol

[NickCT]

July 9, 2019

New Hampshire Poll Shows Biden’s Falling Stock



(Manchester, NH) — In another disappointing poll for the former vice president, numbers from an NBC News/Marist poll shows Joe Biden falling to third place in New Hampshire, the first-in-the-nation presidential primary. Biden now trails Senators Bernie Sanders (D-VT) and Kamala Harris (D-CA). The numbers are devastating for the race’s front runner who has been steadily losing ground since he formally entered the campaign after Easter.

Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) saw improvements in their poll numbers in the Granite State as a result of their debate performance last month. Gillibrand has been campaigning heavily in the state and is scheduled to hold seven events across the state between Friday and Monday. She has campaigned more in New Hampshire than any other candidate.

Kamala Harris, however, has maintained a strong presence here despite the fact that her campaign was initially dogged by questions that she would not compete heavily in the first primary. She now appears to be doing better in New Hampshire than in Iowa. It remains to be seen whether or not she will be able to capitalize on this as the race progresses and the primary draws nearer.

The full poll results:
Bernie Sanders … 20%
Kamala Harris … 14%
Joe Biden … 13%
Elizabeth Warren … 10%
Cory Booker … 8%
Beto O’Rourke … 7%
Kirsten Gillibrand … 7%
Pete Buttigieg … 4%
Amy Klobuchar … 4%
Julián Castro … 2%
John Hickenlooper … 2%
Eric Swalwell … 2%
Tulsi Gabbard … 1%
Mike Gravel … 1%
Jay Inslee … 1%
Andrew Yang … 1%
Undecided … 3%

[NickCT]

July 13, 2019

Weekly Rundown: Harris Barely Leading in California, Biden vs. Booker in South Carolina, Biden Gets Angry During Keene Town Hall

NEW CALIFORNIA POLL UNSETTLING FOR HARRIS

(Oakland, CA) — Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) is banking on her home state to create a firewall for her path to the presidency. She can afford middle-of-the-pack performances in Iowa and New Hampshire if she can deliver a landslide win in her home state of California. However, a new CNN poll shows her campaign may have been overestimating their home state advantage. Harris leads the pack in California with 22%, but Bernie Sanders is within the margin of error at 19%, followed by Joe Biden at 14%, Elizabeth Warren at 10%, and Cory Booker at 8%. Congressman Eric Swalwell, also from California, polled 3% in his home state and former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel, who has since moved to California, polls at 1% in the state.

SOUTH CAROLINA WILL BE A BIDEN VS. BOOKER VS. HARRIS FIGHT

(Charleston, SC) — A new poll from Politico/Morning Consult shows that South Carolina will likely come down to a fight between former vice president Joe Biden (D-DE), Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA). Biden leads the pack in South Carolina with 30%. Booker is in second at 15%, Harris is in third at 14%, and Sanders is in fourth at 12%. Beto O’Rourke is in fifth at 10%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 8%. Pete Buttigieg, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, and Julián Castro all poll at or above 1%.

IN KEENE TOWN HALL, BIDEN GETS TESTY

(Keene, NH) — When campaigning at Keene State University, front runner Joe Biden got testy with a college-aged voter who said his comments about millennials “complaining about how tough things are” was unfair to people her age. “We are facing issues like climate change, a stagnant economy when it comes to wages -” Biden interrupted her. “I’ve heard it all,” he said, “but look, my generation faced real challenges.” The vice president’s dismissiveness upset the student who said she will “no longer” consider voting for the former vice president.

DE BLASIO STRUGGLING TO RAISE MONEY, FIND VOTES

(Reno, NV) — A town hall event hosted by NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio was attended by just 30 people on Friday. The event cemented the narrative that de Blasio, despite some stand out moments in the debate earlier this month against Kamala Harris, has struggled to gain traction in a crowded Democratic primary field. The campaign insisted that de Blasio feels confident that he will do well in the first few state contests and then capitalize on that momentum to win the general election. Yet, the candidate has consistently underperformed expectations in polls and in terms of raising campaign cash. It remains to be seen whether or not his campaign can last until the Iowa caucuses.

CASTRO’S BROTHER GAINING NATIONAL ATTENTION IN SENATE RACE

(Austin, TX) — Former HUD Secretary Julián Castro (D-TX) is running for president, but his twin brother has launched a statewide campaign for U.S. Senate against John Cornyn (R-TX) and is gaining national attention. Joaquin Castro’s senate bid has been raising millions of dollars from Democrats across the nation who believe that Cornyn is beatable. Given the scarcity of a Democratic opponent, Joaquin’s campaign has been getting widespread support from Democrats and has, in some ways, overshadowed his brother’s presidential bid. The two have campaigned together in Texas but have largely refrained from commenting on one another’s campaigns.

GILLIBRAND WINS ENDORSEMENT OF FIVE NH LAWMAKERS

(Concord, NH) — On Monday of this past week, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-NY) campaign announced that five female lawmakers from New Hampshire were endorsing her bid for the presidency. She is now tied with Cory Booker (D-NJ) for the most endorsements among New Hampshire legislators. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden each boast four endorsements. The announcement comes as Gillibrand seeks to establish herself as a front runner after a strong June debate performance. On Wednesday, she announced that she was doubling the size of her field program in New Hampshire in hopes of directly contacting voters ahead of the New Hampshire primary in February.

[NickCT]

July 15, 2019

Stacey Abrams Enters Race for Senate in Georgia



(Atlanta, GA) — At a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, Stacey Abrams, who nearly won an election for governor of Georgia in 2018, announced she would be challenging Senator David Perdue (R-GA) for his seat in the U.S. Senate next November. Abrams, who was previously considering a campaign for president, decided to run for Senate to help “the next Democratic president.”

In her speech, Abrams reiterated how close she had come to being elected governor and affirmed her commitment to registering new voters in an effort to make Georgia blue in November. “If this election is fair, we will win,” she told supporters. Abrams intends to build a massive campaign apparatus to register more than a million new Democratic voters in Georgia and simultaneously run a persuasion campaign aimed at challenging Perdue’s record.

“This race is not about Donald Trump,” she told people. “This race is about you. It is about our great state. It is about the future of our country.”

Abrams’ announcement likely comes as a relief to Democratic presidential candidates who feared that she would enter the race and steal away some of their support. While former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) had previously considered naming Abrams as his running mate, Abrams rejected that idea outright in April when she told people she would not enter the primary as a candidate for the number two spot. Biden has not since announced a presidential running mate, as is typical during the primary season.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll of Georgia voters found Abrams leading Perdue 44-43.

[NickCT]

July 20, 2019

Weekly Rundown: O’Rourke Falls (Literally), Bernie Leads in New National Poll, Harris Dogged by Truancy Issue

O’ROURKE ROLLS ANKLE JUMPING DOWN FROM COUNTER

(Des Moines, IA) — Beto O’Rourke’s style has attracted great attention and some mocking appreciation as he travels across the country making his pitch to voters. He’s known for standing on surfaces, waving his arms, and preaching an optimistic message about taking back the White House. Yet, his style seems to have been his downfall on Tuesday. When the candidate was done speaking at a local diner in Des Moines, he lost his balance and took a tumble, rolling his ankle. He’ll be ready to participate in the debate in 10 days but he did cancel a planned trip to New Hampshire for Thursday-Sunday.

NEW NATIONAL POLL SHOWS BERNIE, NOT BIDEN, LEADING

A new national poll from NBC News/Marist shows Bernie Sanders leading the Democratic primary field. It is the first poll since the race began that does not show Joe Biden at the top. Biden trails Bernie by three points in the poll. The full poll results:

Bernie Sanders … 21%
Joe Biden … 18%
Pete Buttigieg … 11%
Kamala Harris … 10%
Beto O’Rourke … 8%
Cory Booker … 6%
Kirsten Gillibrand … 5%
Elizabeth Warren … 5%
Amy Klobuchar … 4%
Julián Castro … 3%
John Delaney … 1%
John Hickenlooper … 1%
Eric Swalwell … 1%
Andrew Yang … 1%
Undecided/Other … 5%

SOUTH CAROLINA TOWN HALL GOES SOUTH FOR HARRIS

(Orangeburg, SC) — Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) was put on defense this week when campaigning in Orangeburg, South Carolina. At a town hall event, a parent explained her objections with Kamala Harris’ record on truancy prosecutions while she was a prosecutor in California. Harris defended the policy, saying it was a forward-thinking approach aimed at preventing people from entering the criminal justice system later. The policy has been accused of disproportionately affecting people of color and low-income parents. Harris refused to apologize for the program and said it was the “right decision.” The question represents the continued uncertainty within the electorate over Harris’ past as a district attorney.

WILLIAMSON WILL APPEAR IN NEXT DEBATE

(Washington, DC) — The DNC released the line-ups for the two Democratic debates at the end of this month. The first debate will include Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Mike Gravel, Amy Klobuchar, Tim Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Eric Swalwell, and Marianne Williamson, who was hoping she’d be included in the debates after Senator Michal Bennet ended his campaign for president last month. The second debate will include Joe Biden, Julián Castro, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Jay Inslee, Beto O’Rourke, Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang.

[Cold War Liberal]

O’ROURKE ROLLS ANKLE JUMPING DOWN FROM COUNTER

(Des Moines, IA) — Beto O’Rourke’s style has attracted great attention and some mocking appreciation as he travels across the country making his pitch to voters. He’s known for standing on surfaces, waving his arms, and preaching an optimistic message about taking back the White House. Yet, his style seems to have been his downfall on Tuesday. When the candidate was done speaking at a local diner in Des Moines, he lost his balance and took a tumble, rolling his ankle. He’ll be ready to participate in the debate in 10 days but he did cancel a planned trip to New Hampshire for Thursday-Sunday.

Love this!

Interesting timeline so far, very realistic.

[NickCT]

July 30, 2019

Four Memorable Moments from Tonight's Debate



4. WHEN MIKE GRAVEL CALLED PETE BUTTIGIEG A “PAWN” OF THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

“Let’s talk about what this country has done!” Gravel yelled when asked if there was any Democratic candidate he couldn’t vote for in the general election. “You’ve got this guy over here from South Bend - he looks like Dukakis in the tank for God’s sake - riding around and killing Muslims. He’s proud of his military experience. I’m proud of my experience taking on the military.” Buttigieg turned the moment into a chance to defend his military experience and extoll the virtues of being a veteran, but he subsequently stumbled when asked if he would hesitate to use military force as president, saying there are “plenty of times” when military force is justified. Gravel jumped in, “See! The kid’s a pawn. A pawn of the military-industrial complex.”

3. WHEN AMY OWNED TIM

When asked what distinguishes himself from his opponents, Tim Ryan said he wasn’t a “coastal elite” and that he could reach out to voters in the middle with his pragmatic approach. “I can go back to Ohio, to Michigan, to Wisconsin - I can win those states back for us,” he said. Up next was Amy Klobuchar, who replied simply, “Basically what Tim said, except I have the legislative and electoral record to back it up.”

2. WHEN JOHN HICKENLOOPER CALLED KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND “PRETTY” AND SHE DIDN’T HAVE IT

John Hickenlooper, known for his bumbling oratorical style and frequent foot-in-mouth moments, was asked to compliment one of his fellow candidates during a lightning round. He looked across the stage before saying, “Well, Kirsten has a very pretty face.” Gillibrand rolled her eyes before interjecting, “I’ve got more policy on my website than you do, governor. I think I add a lot more to this race than my looks.” The audience roared its approval. Booker, who is very good friends with Gillibrand, leaned into his mic afterward and offered an, “Amen, sister!”

1. WHEN MIKE GRAVEL CALLED OUT BERNIE ON CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM

In a discussion about criminal justice reform, Bernie Sanders said that his campaign was receiving broad support for his positions. He called himself a "leader" on the issue during the 2016 campaign and pledged to do "all he could." When the question got passed to Mike Gravel, he challenged Bernie directly. "We're a couple of old white guys," Gravel said, "but that doesn't mean we get a pass on caring for people of color. I have more criminal justice reform ideas on my website than any candidate in this race. We need to ban solitary confinement, end cash bail, abolish private prisons, establish a $5-billion-a-year grant program so that our prisons are actually humane," Gravel cried. "Bernie talks the talk, but at the end of the day, he's only worried about one portion of the population. Someone's gotta say that. If I thought he cared about everyone, I wouldn't be in this race."

[NickCT]

July 31, 2019

Four Memorable Moments from Tonight’s (Second) Debate



4. WHEN CASTRO AND WARREN NERDED OUT ABOUT HOUSING

It was one of those rare moments in presidential primary debates where a substantive question was asked of a candidate and that candidate didn’t dodge the question. When the moderator asked Elizabeth Warren to further explain her affordable housing policy, Warren gave a thorough 60-second account of what she intends to do as president to make sure everyone can afford a place to rent. Then, the moderator turned it over to Julián Castro, a former HUD Secretary. Castro contrasted his plan with Warren’s but gave her kudos for some “really innovative ideas” before the two launched into a three-minute back-and-forth exchanging different ideas and explaining their reasoning to one another in depth. It was the kind of reasonable exchange that would have made any debate captain proud.

3. WHEN BIDEN CRAKED A MIKE GRAVEL JOKE

The moderator asked Joe Biden about the Obama Administration’s foreign policy record about halfway through the debate. Biden let out a sigh of relief and quipped, “First, I’d like to just say how grateful I am that Mike Gravel is not on this stage with me right now.” He then proceeded to criticize Gravel’s treatment of Mayor Pete during last night’s debate, saying that he is proud to support veterans and proud of the work his wife has done on the issue. He never really got around to answering the question in any detailed way (which Gravel pointed out on Twitter), but everyone loves a Mike Gravel joke.

2. WHEN ELIZABETH WARREN LEGITIMIZED ANDREW YANG

During a lightning round, candidates were asked who they’d name as their vice president. (No surprise but most took their 10 seconds to praise Joe Biden for his time as VP and said they’d love to bring him back … of course, none of them will). But Elizabeth Warren gave the most surprising answer when she said, “I’m not sure about who I’d put on the bottom of the ticket with me, but Andrew Yang is an impressive guy, and I’d definitely like him in my cabinet.” It was the first time a major candidate acknowledged Yang as a legitimate rival for the nomination. Expect him to fundraise off of it later.

1. WHEN CASTRO WON THE CONVERSATION ABOUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM

A question about criminal justice reform allowed Julián Castro to stand out among the crowded field. He roundly criticized Biden and Harris for their checkered pasts on the issue and then launched into a detailed approach to tackling systemic injustices in the prison industrial complex, citing the end of cash bail among other issues. Harris chose to double down on her record and a split-screen of Castro shaking his head as she defended her office’s focus on truancy became a trending gif on Twitter almost instantly.

[NickCT]

August 4, 2019

New Iowa Poll Shows Four-Way Race for the Top



A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows four candidates essentially tied among likely Iowa caucus-goers. Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) were tied for number one at 16% while Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Bernie Sanders (D-VT) were tied at 14% for second place - well within the poll’s margin of error.

Klobuchar has been running an Iowa-centric campaign, visiting with potential caucus-goers in diners, town hall meetings, and house parties. She has set-up an aggressive field campaign with offices opening in all of Iowa’s major cities. Meanwhile, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina have scarcely seen the Minnesota senator. It seems to be paying off, however. She is now near the top in the Iowa polls and could use a win in the Iowa caucuses. Her staff believes that with a first or second place finish in Iowa, she can go on to win two or three Super Tuesday states, including her home state of Minnesota. If that’s the case, she could cement a role as one of the race’s front runners.

Mayor Pete’s campaign is raising money off of the poll. Within 10 hours of its release, the campaign reported raising $1 million to “Keep Pete on Top.”

Meanwhile, the poll is disheartening for Biden and Sanders, who are seeing their numbers decrease in early primary states where candidates are meeting voters one-on-one and voters are being swayed by impressive debate performances, candidate appearances, and their intense focus on the race. While one of the candidates is still likely to emerge as the nominee, both campaigns are concerned about what will happen if they fall behind in the first four states. The anti-momentum effect could be too much for their campaigns to overcome.

The full poll results:
Joe Biden … 16%
Pete Buttigieg … 16%
Amy Klobuchar … 14%
Bernie Sanders … 14%
Elizabeth Warren … 7%
Beto O’Rourke … 7%
Kirsten Gillibrand … 6%
Kamala Harris … 5%
Cory Booker … 3%
Julián Castro … 3%
Andrew Yang … 2%
John Delaney … 1%
John Hickenlooper .. 1%
Tim Ryan … 1%
Undecided/Other … 4%

[NickCT]

August 10, 2019

Weekly Rundown: Swalwell Keeps Pushing Guns, Gillibrand Announces New Hampshire Bus Tour, Internal Angst Growing in Beto’s Camp

SWALWELL KEEPS GUN SAFETY MESSAGE GOING

(Cedar Rapids, IA) — While Warren touts income inequality and a tax on the wealthy, Castro touches on immigration, and Inslee hammers a message of doing something about climate change, California Congressman Eric Swalwell is talking to voter after voter about the issue of gun safety legislation. “We need to go big, be bold, and do good,” Swalwell told a crowd of 50 future Iowa caucus goers in Cedar Rapids on Tuesday. “That means we need to take on the NRA and pass legislation that keeps our children safe in schools.” Swalwell has largely held the gun lane to himself, though Castro and Senators Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand also embrace the issue, Gillibrand through the lens of her political transformation on the issue. Few believe that a gun safety message will be enough to help Swalwell break out of the crowded Democratic field, but he may see a path to a bigger career down the road if he impresses people on the trail today. An internal poll released by the Swalwell campaign shows him polling 4% in Iowa, ahead of John Delaney, Tim Ryan, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, and even Cory Booker.

GILLIBRAND ANNOUNCES NEW HAMPSHIRE BUS TOUR

(Nashua, NH) — Next week, Gillibrand will be touring New Hampshire in a bus, stopping in every county across seven days and working diligently to maintain her edge in the number of stops in the Granite State. Throughout the state, Gillibrand has repeatedly hit her “brave wins” message, called Donald Trump a coward, and talked about issues like paid family leave, reforming campaign finance laws, and supporting public education. Much of Gillibrand’s New Hampshire message has included hitting Republican Governor Chris Sununu, who remains unpopular with New Hampshire Democrats for his opposition to issues Gillibrand has prioritized in her campaign.

BETO’S CAMPAIGN DEALING WITH INTERNAL ANGST

(El Paso, TX) — Beto O’Rourke is used to running an untraditional campaign. He’s been driving around Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina in a minivan, standing on countertops, and doing all he can to make personal connections with as many voters as possible. His campaign schedule is one of the most rigorous of the candidates running. Yet, his numbers seem stalled at 7-10% depending on the poll and advisers are worried that his micromanagement of the campaign is hindering their opportunity for growth. Advisers are increasingly worried that O’Rourke’s unwillingness to adopt a traditional campaign approach is preventing them from expanding their numbers, reaching more voters, and appearing as a frontrunner campaign instead of a flash in the pan. O’Rourke has resisted changing his style, noting that it nearly propelled him to victory against Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2018 and provided him the platform to run for president.

SANDERS JUST … DOING HIS THING

(Las Vegas, NV) — On Thursday, Bernie Sanders hosted a major rally in Las Vegas. It attracted several thousand people in a scene reminiscent of his 2016 bid. But 2020 Bernie is different. He’s facing increasing scrutiny about past comments he made on immigration, about how long it took for him to release his tax returns, about his flippant responses to reporters. Bernie the frontrunner sounds a lot different than Bernie the revolutionary. Some past Bernie supporters are looking elsewhere for a candidate who is more optimistic, more charismatic, younger, newer now that most of the field embraces the core tenets of Bernie’s 2016 platform. The Sanders campaign insists it has the most certain path to the nomination of anyone running. Thousands of people have donated and signed on to volunteer. They say that after New Hampshire, it will become a three-way race, and they are confident that no matter who their two opponents, they will be able to clinch the nomination before the convention in Milwaukee. Unlike 2016, they’re not worried about edging out a win in Iowa or producing a decisive victory in New Hampshire. Few candidates have the money, name recognition, and base support to sustain a primary campaign through June. Their only real threats, they say on background, are Biden and Beto, who both have amassed large war chests. Of them, they’re far more worried about Beto than they are the vice president, saying that the left wing of the party will quickly get behind Bernie if it becomes a two-way race with Biden. For now, Bernie’s criss-crossing the country, saying the same thing he’s been saying since 2016 (and decades before that).

[JG]

Go Gillibrand!

Very interesting, well-written and realistic timeline so far.

[NickCT]

August 15, 2019

Out of Money and Support, de Blasio Ends 2020 Campaign, Endorses Gillibrand



(New York, NY) — At a press conference in New York City today, Mayor Bill de Blasio ended his presidential campaign. He cited the crowded field and his own inability to raise money and gather support throughout the primary campaign process. “To continue this campaign into the fall would be only to take time away from other candidates with a far better chance to win,” he said. He encouraged other low-polling candidates to end their bids after the August debate. “We owe it to this party to find the candidate best-suited to take on Donald Trump. That candidate is not going to be someone still polling at 1 or 2% by the end of September.”

Perhaps more surprising was that de Blasio offered an endorsement of fellow New York Kirsten Gillibrand, whom de Blasio described as “more than qualified” to lead the country and take on Donald Trump. He cited, as her campaign often does, the candidate’s history of winning in red areas of the state and the fact that she holds the record for the highest percentage of votes in a statewide election in New York. “I have known Kirsten for many years. She is a brave champion of the values we need, and she will be brave in her pursuit to defeat Donald Trump and restore our nation to the best it can be,” de Blasio said in his endorsement.

The mayor’s withdrawal makes him the second candidate to end his bid. The first was Colorado Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO), who dropped out after tests revealed he was still battling prostate cancer. With de Blasio gone, there remain 19 credible candidates for the Democratic nomination.

[NickCT]

August 17, 2019

Mayor Pete Faces Questions Over Record on Race Issues



(Charleston, SC) — During a visit to South Carolina today, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN), widely seen as a frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, struggled to answer questions over his record as Mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Two voters, both college-aged, asked Buttigieg about his history of supporting people of color in South Bend. Specifically, they cited a number of cases alleging racial discrimination within the police department, the fact that Buttigieg fired an African-American police chief and has since only appointed white people to lead the department, and the fact that the department itself is disproportionately white when compared to the demographic make-up of the city.

Said one student, who described herself as a Black Lives Matter activist on her campus, “It sounds like you’ve learned nothing from Ferguson.”

Buttigieg struggled to deliver a clear response to the question. He cited the fact that Indiana is a largely white state, but his city of South Bend is 26% African-American and 14% Latinx. Only 10% of the police department is people of color - be them African-American or Latinx.

While the mayor has a history of tough rhetoric on inappropriate police conduct, there are still questions about how seriously he takes the issue. Several of his opponents, most notably Senators Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) and former HUD Secretary Julián Castro (D-TX), have made criminal justice reform a major issue. In fact, Castro and former Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK) decried the liberal establishment in the debate last month for doing little more than paying lip service to the concerns of communities of color.

Polling has long suggested that Buttigieg’s support rests largely with self-described moderates and older white voters, as well as within the LGBTQIA+ community.

[NickCT]

August 27, 2019

On Eve of August Debate, Huffington Post Details New Klobuchar Horror Story



Tomorrow, ten Democratic candidates will meet on stage for another presidential debate. Among them is Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), who must again contend with a story alleging misconduct towards her employees. What has long existed as an internet rumor has now been officially reported by the Huffington Post and independently confirmed by three separate sources. A staffer has confirmed that Senator Klobuchar once instructed her to shave the senator’s legs for her. The story has long existed in Washington circles and even once served as the basis for a storyline in Veep - an HBO television series.

The Klobuchar campaign has long denied the rumor but now must contend with the reality that the HuffPost has deemed the story credible enough to be published as news. While the staffer remained anonymous, she vividly recounted the event and said she was now confirming the story because of the senator’s recent success in Iowa.

A statement released by the Klobuchar campaign categorically denied the story, saying that it was “100% false” and that the Senator would not dignify the story with a response. It is likely, however, that she will need to provide some answer at tomorrow night’s debate.

[NickCT]

August 28, 2019

Warren Shines in Debate



(Atlanta, GA) — In the third debate for the Democratic presidential nomination, ten candidates met to discuss their vision for the nation. Among them were: Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN), fmr. Congressman John Delaney (D-MD), fmr. Senator Mike Gravel (D-AK), Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA), Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT), Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-CA), Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and author Marianne Williamson.

The debate began with a question to Senator Amy Klobuchar, asking the senator to clarify the controversy surrounding an allegation she once forced a staffer to shave her legs for her. Klobuchar said that the suggestion was “100% false” and refused to elaborate further, saying she would not “dignify such blatantly false allegations” with a response. The moderator, however, pressed Klobuchar, suggesting some voters may choose to believe it given other stories that have been shared about Klobuchar’s mistreatment of staffers. The senator said that it was up to the voters to decide whether or not they would believe the story but that they had no reason to.

The clear winner of the debate was Senator Elizabeth Warren, who sparred with Delaney and, to a lesser extent, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, for not holding the progressive policy chops that she has made central to her campaign. She was also given time to expand on some of the policy proposals she has brought into the race, including her plan for affordable housing, a tax on the ultra-wealthy, and a reform of the corporate tax to ensure corporations pay their fair share.

Mike Gravel, known for creating viral and bombastic moments during the previous two debates, was comparatively tame this evening, though he did repeatedly decry the media’s favoritism towards Mayor Pete after the candidate was brought in on three questions in a row. When Gravel pointed out that coverage of Buttigieg often came at the expense of other candidates, particularly the female candidates, he drew loud applause from the audience. Warren, who was standing next to Gravel, reached out and put her arm on Gravel’s shoulder, delivering a “Right on!” with a laugh.

Booker also challenged Mayor Pete during the debate, insisting that he provide the African-American community with a better answer on how he’s overseen policing in South Bend.


A CNN online poll conducted after the debate showed 36% of viewers saw Warren as the winner of the debate, followed by 13% for Gravel, 10% Sanders, and 9% for Booker. None of the remaining candidates polled at or near double digits.

[NickCT]

September 5, 2019

New Polls Show Dramatic Decline for Biden, Bernie, Klobuchar



A new survey from Public Policy Polling shows a dramatic change in the race for the Democratic nomination. More than a third of likely Democratic primary voters said they felt “unsatisfied” with the “campaign’s front runners” and said they were hoping a better choice would emerge. That dissatisfaction is seen in the new results. The following are the results from PPP’s national survey, change is since the mid-July PPP national survey:

Bernie Sanders … 16% (-5)
Joe Biden … 15% (-6)
Kamala Harris … 10%  (+3)
Pete Buttigieg … 8% (-4)
Elizabeth Warren … 8% (+3)
Kirsten Gillibrand … 6% (+3)
Cory Booker … 5% (+/-)
Beto O’Rourke … 5% (-5)
Julián Castro … 4% (+2)
Mike Gravel … 3% (+3)
John Delaney … 2% (+1)
Amy Klobuchar … 2% (-5)
John Hickenlooper … 2% (+1)
Jay Insleee … 2% (+1)
Andrew Yang … 2% (+1)
Eric Swalwell … 1% (+1)
Undecided/Other … 9% (+6%)

In Iowa, Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) has seen a staggering decline in her numbers. The candidate was once poised to lead the pack, but her support has fallen from 14% in one recent poll to just 6%. That support has largely dispersed between Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). They’ll both need to capitalize on it if they hope to keep their chances alive in Iowa.

Joe Biden … 18%
Pete Buttigieg … 18%
Bernie Sanders … 15%
Elizabeth Warren … 10%
Kirsten Gillibrand … 9%
Kamala Harris … 8%
Amy Klobuchar … 6%
Cory Booker … 5%
Julián Castro … 3%
Mike Gravel … 2%
Eric Swalwell … 1%
John Hickenlooper … 1%
Andrew Yang … 1%
Undecided/Other … 3%

In New Hampshire, where Bernie Sanders has long been expected to win the Democratic primary, there are signs that his Granite State dominance is over.

Bernie Sanders … 15%
Kamala Harris … 14%
Joe Biden … 12%
Elizabeth Warren … 12%
Kirsten Gillibrand … 9%
Cory Booker … 8%
Beto O’Rourke … 7%
Pete Buttigieg … 6%
Julián Castro … 3%
Mike Gravel … 3%
Amy Klobuchar … 3%
Andrew Yang … 2%
Tulsi Gabbard … 1%
Jay Inslee … 1%
Eric Swalwell … 1%
Undecided/Other … 3%

The numbers suggest that Biden and Bernie’s initial support was soft and that the debates have given the chance for other candidates to gain the exposure needed to break through and raise their numbers. Reports say that the Biden campaign is incredulous with how quickly their candidate has failed to connect with Democratic voters and that the poll numbers suggest that he may have to rely on later states to secure the nomination.

Others are confident that the campaign will go to a contested convention. Two staffers associated with two separate top 5 campaigns said they intended to keep expenses low in early states, hope that rising trends in their favor continue, and to win the nomination on the floor of the Milwaukee convention. Staffers inside the Biden campaign said they are confident they will have the nomination wrapped up by the time Milwaukee comes around, reminding everyone that the Republicans had feared a divided convention in a similarly large field and that eventually, voters began to coalesce around the front runner. The same, they believe, will happen to Biden.