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September 20, 2019, 09:46:27 pm
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  Can Jim Hood win the Mississippi governorship in 2019?
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Question: Can Jim Hood win the MS governorship?
#1Yes  
#2No  
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Author Topic: Can Jim Hood win the Mississippi governorship in 2019?  (Read 1199 times)
bronz4141
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« on: April 08, 2019, 08:44:52 pm »

I think he can. I think Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood wins the Democratic nomination and wins the general election against Tate Reeves in November.

What about you?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2019, 08:48:23 pm »

Yes, its a statewide race, instead of a natl race, Dems can win it.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2019, 08:56:47 pm »

If Hood wins, he'd be a good VP candidate in 2020.....could put Espy on the finish line against Hyde-Smith with black turnout....
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2019, 09:01:05 pm »

He's certainly the best shot they've had in years, but I'd put it at Lean R for now. He's apparently in for a tough primary fight, and Mississippi has this weird Electoral College-type system for gubernatorial elections where he has to win the majority of State House districts.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2019, 11:28:07 pm »

If Hood wins the popular vote, like Hillary, but the archaic and racially antiquated Mississippi Constitution allows the Republican-led House of Representatives to choose the next governor like they did in 2000, you could see protests and cable news outlets arrive in Jackson, MS, that could ignite anger among MS Democrats and Democrats nationally, even if MS is a deep-red state.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2019, 11:50:28 pm »

Yes, he can, but I'm much more bearish on his chances than I was six months ago.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2019, 02:58:40 am »

He can. That doesn't mean "he will"...
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Duke of York
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« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2019, 11:25:56 am »

He very well could win the popular vote but I doubt Republicans would hesitate to overturn the result if Hood doesnt get a majority of the house districts given their distain for free and fair elections
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tmt
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« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2019, 11:44:31 am »

He can. That doesn't mean "he will"...
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President Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2019, 12:15:26 pm »

The need to win a majority of LDs - given current geographic polarization - probably cuts his chances at otherwise winning a majority of the vote in half or more.

However - and I'm not familiar with how MS LDs are drawn with regard to gerrymandering strategy - I do know that "historically" (over the past decade or so, at least prior to 2016) MS had far less polarization based on rural/suburban/urban than most other states (hell, in 2012, MS rural counties were more D as a whole than its metro counties).
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2019, 12:39:59 pm »

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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2019, 01:38:59 pm »

I hope so considering he's won 4 consecutive statewide elections as MS State AG (2003, 2007, 2011 & 2015) & serving as the 39th MS State AG since January 13th, 2004., I think he's got a good shot.

MS Dems last won the Governor's Mansion in 1999 when then-LG Ron Musgrove (D) won it.

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Theodore
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« Reply #12 on: April 09, 2019, 03:38:14 pm »

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Ses
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« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2019, 04:21:51 pm »

empty quoting will never die
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Duke of York
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« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2019, 05:49:46 pm »

He very well could win the popular vote but I doubt Republicans would hesitate to overturn the result if Hood doesnt get a majority of the house districts given their distain for free and fair elections

Yeah. He can win the popular vote, but there's no way he wins a majority of legislative districts even if he wins the popular vote. He barely won a majority of them in his 2015 AG race when he won by 10 points. So no. He can't win. Unless the courts step in and LOL if you think a southern court is going to let a Democrat take over as Governor.
In other words he can't win. He ought to sue in court to overturn the law as its complete violation of one man one vote.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2019, 10:01:33 pm »

The MS Constitution....like the Electoral College may be antiquated.

MS Democrats have a good bench, yet they can't win.

Mike Moore, Ray Mabus, Ronnie Musgrove, Jim Hood, Mike Espy.
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Georgia Is A Swing State
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« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2019, 10:07:15 pm »

The need to win a majority of LDs - given current geographic polarization - probably cuts his chances at otherwise winning a majority of the vote in half or more.

However - and I'm not familiar with how MS LDs are drawn with regard to gerrymandering strategy - I do know that "historically" (over the past decade or so, at least prior to 2016) MS had far less polarization based on rural/suburban/urban than most other states (hell, in 2012, MS rural counties were more D as a whole than its metro counties).
Is winning a majority of LDs only if no one reaches 50 percent or doeshe have to do that regardless?
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #17 on: April 09, 2019, 11:53:52 pm »

The need to win a majority of LDs - given current geographic polarization - probably cuts his chances at otherwise winning a majority of the vote in half or more.

However - and I'm not familiar with how MS LDs are drawn with regard to gerrymandering strategy - I do know that "historically" (over the past decade or so, at least prior to 2016) MS had far less polarization based on rural/suburban/urban than most other states (hell, in 2012, MS rural counties were more D as a whole than its metro counties).
Is winning a majority of LDs only if no one reaches 50 percent or doeshe have to do that regardless?

As I understand it, they must win a majority of LDs regardless. However, I've heard conflicting information regarding this, so maybe I'm mistaken.

Given what happened in 1999, if this isn't true in all cases, then maybe a plurality leads to the State House deciding, and outside of that, whoever wins the most LDs wins?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2019, 09:17:53 am »

No, because of polarization, state is inelastic and racist hicks.


Just kidding... I think he can since he's won a couple of statewide races. Doesn't mean he will win, though. But he's the Democrats best candidate here.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2019, 09:54:05 am »

Dems are poised to win KY and LA. Dems want to win KY, due to getting back at McConnell for the stolen SCOTUS seat
 LA is tilt Dem without KY. 50 +1 is needed for MS, but the state is gerrymandered to GOP, anyways
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Totalitarian Contrarian
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« Reply #20 on: April 12, 2019, 02:00:19 pm »

He certainly CAN however I have doubts he will
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #21 on: April 12, 2019, 03:14:05 pm »

Dems are poised to win KY and LA. Dems want to win KY, due to getting back at McConnell for the stolen SCOTUS seat
 LA is tilt Dem without KY. 50 +1 is needed for MS, but the state is gerrymandered to GOP, anyways

And why does that matter in a governor's race?
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henster
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« Reply #22 on: April 12, 2019, 03:19:00 pm »

His fundraising has been pitiful, he's been state AG for more than a decade so he should be raising a lot more than Tate Reeves but he's significantly behind him in $$.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #23 on: April 12, 2019, 05:10:48 pm »

I simply stated that KY, LA and MS aren't necessary for Dems to win, in 2019, due to the EC college, however, for momentum into 2020 presidential run, KY and LA are easiest to get, due to the MS GOP gerrymandering and Hood must get a majority of the districts in order to win, not feesable, for a Dem
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2019, 05:26:04 pm »

He won't.
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