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  Mississippi Democrats have a good bench. Why can't they win?
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Author Topic: Mississippi Democrats have a good bench. Why can't they win?  (Read 828 times)
bronz4141
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« on: April 09, 2019, 10:06:27 pm »

Ray Mabus, Mike Moore, Jim Hood, Bennie Thompson, Ronnie Musgrave, Mike Espy.

Yes, I know that MS is a deep red state because of social and cultural conservatism, the Southern Strategy, the Gingrichization-Lott-Barbourization of the GOP, etc.

But they have a good bench. Are MS Republicans so good that they win there?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2019, 03:18:24 am »

State is very inelastic. Any "normal" Republican candidate (without Roy Moore-type scandals) is a favorite here from the beginning. And so far there were no Roy Moore-type general election candidates among Republicans. McDaniel could lose against very strong Democrat, but, probably, only him or his like.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2019, 06:53:48 am »

You can thank LBJ signing the 1964 Civil Right Act for that.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2019, 06:58:23 am »

Because their potential ceiling, even in an off-year gubernatorial election, is about 55%, which is about the coalition that kept re-electing Hood for many years, and it's in question whether they can string together that coalition anymore, as it relies on getting about 25-30% of white "Democrats" that vote for Trump and congressional Republicans.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2019, 08:32:14 am »

Racial polarization.
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New Frontier
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« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2019, 11:53:25 am »

Racial polarization.
This! It's...MISSISSIPPI ffs.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2019, 12:02:47 pm »

Three of those people you mentioned have been out of elected office for decades, and probably would not run a good modern campaign. And I thought I read an article once where Bennie Thompson was quoted as saying he has no interest in running statewide. As others have said, Mississippi is an inelastic state, and barring some massive scandal, Republicans will almost certainly always win. Honestly, I'm shocked Mike Espy did as well as he did.
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Harry
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« Reply #7 on: April 11, 2019, 06:27:20 pm »

What a dumb thread title. There are literally no Democrats in Mississippi who could plausibly win a statewide race (unless we get a Roy Moore-type scenario) in near future, other than Jim Hood.

Mike Moore last ran for office in 1999. Ray Mabus in 1991. Mike Espy overperformed in a highly D year against a very weak R candidate and still lost comfortably. Bennie Thompson is a joke even to black Democrats. Ronnie Musgrove got his ass handed to him twice last decade and it's been years since he's been active on the scene.

Jason Shelton (mayor of Tupelo) could possibly do it at some point, but he's not very well known statewide. Eventually demographic drift will lead to black (and sometimes white Democrats) candidates winning all the time.
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2019, 11:51:12 pm »

Emm Aye Ess Ess Aye Ess Ess Aye Pee Pee Aye
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hummus_con_pita
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« Reply #9 on: April 11, 2019, 11:56:02 pm »

Emm Aye Ess Ess Aye Ess Ess Aye Pee Pee Aye

Massassappa?
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Sestak
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« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2019, 11:58:34 pm »

Emm Aye Ess Ess Aye Ess Ess Aye Pee Pee Aye

Massassappa?

Yap.
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hummus_con_pita
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« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2019, 11:59:21 pm »

Emm Aye Ess Ess Aye Ess Ess Aye Pee Pee Aye

Massassappa?

Yap.

No thx yanqui we don’t need your caricatures
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standwrand
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« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2019, 12:58:21 pm »

Jay Hughes has a good chance for Lt. Governor
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SvenTC
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« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2019, 04:06:13 pm »

Because it's Mississippi.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2019, 07:44:48 pm »

Espy and Hood would have to go into a run-off. Just like in GA and LA. LA Dems have been the only ones successful at it
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