Current Republicans that can and can't win the popular vote

[Suburbia]

Which future Republican presidential candidate can and cannot win the popular vote, the last Republicans to win the popular vote was George W. Bush-Dick Cheney in 2004 after 9/11/2001.

[Xeuma]

If a Republican wins the popular vote, I think it will be more due to a perfect confluence of events than any of their own virtues. I'm starting to think that the any given candidate is interchangeable with any other candidate and most elections would play out the same.

[Roll Roons]

Kasich or Rubio would have most likely won it over Hillary. Maybe also Jeb! and Paul. Even Romney may have done better if he'd faced Hillary rather than Obama.

For the future, I can't see a very conservative/Trumpist type (Cruz, Cotton, Pence) winning it, but Haley, Hogan or Baker could.

[RINO Tom]

>90% of Republicans could win the popular vote under the right circumstances.

[VirginiaAaron]

Bill Weld would win the popular vote tbh imo

[FalloutBoy97]

They are at a huge structural disadvantage. It’s possible that they could win the PV but only if events beyond their control conspire to make it happen. In this age of polarization even “#moderate” candidates have a hard cap on how many crossover votes they can win in a federal race, so candidate quality alone wouldn’t be enough. It would probably have to be a superior republican candidate facing off against a very unpopular democrat presiding over some sort of catastrophe.

[cwh2018]

I think the GOP disadvantage here is overstated slightly.  It is not a 5% margin that needs to be overcome, 2% is certainly possible. The democrats went 32 years without achieving a majority of the vote in presidential elections from Carter to Obama.  It may well just be a simple anomaly.  If the GOP continue to win presidential elections while the popular vote disparity rises then it will put a certain pressure on the system and will lead to more calls to do away with the EC.  If Trump can narrow California to a more reasonable 25 point loss versus the 30 point loss he achieved in 2016 then the popular vote will be close,just like the actual electoral college will be close.

[Annatar]

Any Republican, its not like the GOP needs to make up a huge 10 or 15% deficit, they only need a 2% improvement from 2016 which is pretty easy. In fact Trump probably has a pretty good shot at winning the Popular Vote if the dem nominee is weak, going forward a 2% national improvement is not very difficult to do.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump can if he dumps Pence, but he wont.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Any Republican can, against the right opponent.

[QAnonKelly]

I don't see an R winning the popular vote for probably the next fifteen years unless the next D president manages to screw something up really badly.

[Tekken_Guy]

Can
- Marco Rubio
- John Kasich
- Nikki Haley
- Larry Hogan
- Charlie Baker
- Rick Scott
- Ron DeSantis
- Doug Ducey
- Martha McSally
- Dan Crenshaw

Can’t
- Donald Trump
- Mike Pence
- Ted Cruz
- Tom Cotton
- Josh Hawley
- Marsha Blackburn
- Matt Bevin
- Corey Stewart
- Kris Kobach

[Lechasseur]

At anyrate, potential 2024 or 2028 candidates I can see winning the PV are Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.

Trump can do it too if the Democrats put up a bad nominee next year.

[Suburbia]

Can
- Marco Rubio
- John Kasich
- Nikki Haley
- Larry Hogan
- Charlie Baker
- Rick Scott
- Ron DeSantis
- Doug Ducey
- Martha McSally
- Dan Crenshaw

Can’t
- Donald Trump
- Mike Pence
- Ted Cruz
- Tom Cotton
- Josh Hawley
- Marsha Blackburn
- Matt Bevin
- Corey Stewart
- Kris Kobach

Why can't Cotton or Blackburn win the popular vote, especially Blackburn? You don't think a lot of women will vote for her?

[Tekken_Guy]

Can
- Marco Rubio
- John Kasich
- Nikki Haley
- Larry Hogan
- Charlie Baker
- Rick Scott
- Ron DeSantis
- Doug Ducey
- Martha McSally
- Dan Crenshaw

Can’t
- Donald Trump
- Mike Pence
- Ted Cruz
- Tom Cotton
- Josh Hawley
- Marsha Blackburn
- Matt Bevin
- Corey Stewart
- Kris Kobach

Why can't Cotton or Blackburn win the popular vote, especially Blackburn? You don't think a lot of women will vote for her?

Blackburn’s kind of like a Palin/Bachmann type. Unlikely to even make it out of the primaries. Cotton I don’t think can really widen his support beyond the conservative base.