Morning Consult: 48% definitely won't vote to re-elect Trump

[wbrocks67]

In their latest poll:

27% definitely re-elect Trump
10% probably re-elect Trump
7% probably vote for someone else
48% definitely vote for someone else

So, a total of 37% definitely/probably vs. 55% probably not/definitely not.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016a-032b-dcb9-af7a-e7ff39760001

[TDAS04]

If this poll is accurate, Trump will ultimately have no problem getting almost all the “probably Trump” people to vote for him, while the other “probably” group will be more divided; many may not even bother to vote.  The race is competitive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If this poll is accurate, Trump will ultimately have no problem getting almost all the “probably Trump” people to vote for him, while the other “probably” group will be more divided; many may not even bother to vote.  The race is competitive.

The race may well turn out to be competitive in the end, but not if those numbers are remotely close.  Let's say that Trump gets 100% of the "definitely Trump" group.  "Definitely someone else" could include third parties; we'll give them a generous 10%, with the other 90% to the Democrat.  We'll be generous and say that in the "probably Trump" group, 80% do vote for Trump, 10% for a third party, and 10% sit out.  We'll be less generous to the other side and say that the "probably someone else" group splits 60% for the D, 20% for a third party, 10% for Trump, and 10% sitting out.   For the (unmentioned) remaining 8%, we'll assume 50% sit out, 20% to Trump, 20% to D, and 10% to 3rd parties.

Applying these numbers to all the groups:

Definitely Trump (27%): 27% for Trump
Probably Trump (10%): 8% for Trump, 1% for third party, 1% sit out
Probably someone else (7%): 4.2% D, 1.4% third party, 0.7% Trump, 0.7% sit out
Definitely someone else (48%): 43.2% D, 4.8% third party
None (8%): 4% sit out, 1.6% Trump, 1.6% D, 0.8% third party

Trump gets 27+8+0.7+1.6 = 37.3
D gets  4.2 + 43.2 + 1.6 = 49.0
Third party gets 1 + 1.4 + 4.8 + 0.8 = 8.0
Sit out gets 1 + 0.7 + 4 = 5.7

This would be landslide territory.  You could tweak the percentages fairly significantly without changing the outcome.

Let me be clear that this is NOT what I expect to happen.  My point is that numbers like the above are not competitive.   A candidate simply can't make up that large a deficit even if the less committed groups break heavily their way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Trump isnt gonna win next year. He was very fortunate to win 2016, with an ethically challenged candidate Clinton

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

He could still win while his opponent gets 48%, with a decent third party vote.

[Mr. Morden]

Is there any evidence to suggest that the "definitely will" or "definitely won't" vote for X type polls are any more predictive of anything than simply asking people who they support right now?  Seems like there could be plenty of people who say that they'll "definitely" vote a certain way, only to change their minds later depending on how events unfold.  You're asking people to predict what they're going to think in the future, which is something that they might be terrible at.

[MT Treasurer]

48% sounds right, it’s what Clinton got and basically the Democratic floor in 2020. Not that it really matters.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

He'll win reelection big time.

He's doing better then he was leading in to 2016!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He'll win reelection big time.

He's doing better then he was leading in to 2016!

The GOP party did better in Congressional races that carried him to victory in House and Senate. All the buzz was on the Dems defeat in WI, but Trump lost a big time race in PA

[Progressive Pessimist]

He could still win while his opponent gets 48%, with a decent third party vote.

Exactly. It's still not good enough.

[UncleSam]

Is this a poll of adults with no other named opponent?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is this a poll of adults with no other named opponent?

It's a poll of registered voters (N=1992), but there is no named opponent.

[Hollywood]

IDK.  On the one hand, the question seems a bit incomplete.  On the other hand, with all the bad media coverage, if you haven't definitively decided not to vote for Trump, you're thinking about voting for Trump.  This poll seems to validate the notion that Trump has the vote of 44-46% of the electorate.  The choice Democrats make in the primary is pivotal, because many voters are looking for an excuse not to participate, or perhaps, vote for a third-party candidate.  That may hurt Democrats, but it also may hurt Trump. 

[wbrocks67]

He could still win while his opponent gets 48%, with a decent third party vote.

.... That's assuming that the D nominee gets *none* of the "probably won't for Trump" vote and Trump somehow consolidates ALL of the "will vote" "probably vote" and "probably won't" vote. People seem to be spinning this a LOT.  These are not good numbers for him.

[President Johnson]

Getting 95+% of these 55% who don't support Trump vote for the Democrat is the challenge.

[Stranger in a strange land]

He'll win reelection big time.

He's doing better then he was leading in to 2016!

The GOP party did better in Congressional races that carried him to victory in House and Senate. All the buzz was on the Dems defeat in WI, but Trump lost a big time race in PA

At a minimum, Dems need to retake PA, MI, and either WI or AZ to defeat Trump in 2020.