Australian Federal Election 18th of May 2019

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

Election has now been called

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/federal-budget/federal-election-2019-what-you-need-to-know/news-story/33eeb154fd2a407adf0f505d2d9173d4

WHAT THE POLLS SAY

The April 8 Newspoll put Labor ahead of the Coalition, on 52 per cent to 48 per cent two party-preferred, but an Ipsos poll that same day showed a stronger lead of 53 to 47.

The Newspoll results showed Mr Morrison’s rating as preferred prime minister lifted three points to 46 per cent, well ahead of Bill Shorten on 35 per cent.

[Mike88]

I see according to polls, that Morrison is way more popular than Shorten in terms of popularity and PM preference. Could that hurt the ALP numbers in the next few weeks, or is the Coalition brand so damaged that Morrison popularity will not matter?

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

Correction: 18th May.

cheers Mike. I obviously haven't woken up properly yet.

May as well post this while I'm here.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/key-seats-the-electorates-you-need-to-watch-in-2019-federal-election/news-story/13820549c5985023021f0871c3f264a1

[Smid]

I see according to polls, that Morrison is way more popular than Shorten in terms of popularity and PM preference. Could that hurt the ALP numbers in the next few weeks, or is the Coalition brand so damaged that Morrison popularity will not matter?

It's very uncommon for an incumbent to not be leading on the question of preferred PM. Of all typical poll questions, this one is perhaps the least useful.

[Lachi]

I see according to polls, that Morrison is way more popular than Shorten in terms of popularity and PM preference. Could that hurt the ALP numbers in the next few weeks, or is the Coalition brand so damaged that Morrison popularity will not matter?

Preferred PM is basically meaningless in Australia, and it has been calculated by Kevin Bonham that it normally has around a 15% bias to the current prime minister when up against an opposition leader who has never been in that position.

[Smid]

I see according to polls, that Morrison is way more popular than Shorten in terms of popularity and PM preference. Could that hurt the ALP numbers in the next few weeks, or is the Coalition brand so damaged that Morrison popularity will not matter?

Preferred PM is basically meaningless in Australia, and it has been calculated by Kevin Bonham that it normally has around a 15% bias to the current prime minister when up against an opposition leader who has never been in that position.

I haven't seen that particular work of Dr Bonham, however I find that estimate entirely credible.

[Lachi]

We got a Newspoll tonight, even though most of us on twitter didn't think there was one coming

2PP (There is a caveat with this number that will be shown at the end)
52/48 Labor

Primary vote
Both L/NP and LAB on 39
Greens on 9
PHON on 4 (!!!)

Now, this is the caveat:
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1117396368144748544?s=19

[kcguy]

For those of us who don't normally follow Australian politics,

Is "PHON" Nick Xenophon, or is it something else entirely?


I'm fairly sure "L/NP" is "Liberal/National" and "ALP" is "Australian Labor Party".

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

For those of us who don't normally follow Australian politics,

Is "PHON" Nick Xenophon, or is it something else entirely?


I'm fairly sure "L/NP" is "Liberal/National" and "ALP" is "Australian Labor Party".

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

Cracks starting to show in Shorten campaign

Today he [Shorten] claimed to have issued the false claim after misunderstanding a question.

“I thought I was being asked do we have any unannounced changes to superannuation, and we’ve already made the announcements of the changes we’re going to make,” Mr Shorten said.

He disputed the characterisation of Labor’s policies as “tax increases”, but Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen eventually admitted the measures would raise $30 billion in revenue.

We have yet to see an indication that Labor’s campaign is in any real trouble. Polling this week showed it was still comfortably ahead of the government.

That old air of invincibility, however, is definitely beginning to fade.

I don't see anything other than a Labor Victory come 18th of May 2019.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Handy view of all house of reps seat margins
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/pendulum

[Lachi]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-17/vote-compass-election-most-important-issues/11003192

Also, Frydenburg caught out lying yet again.

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6063477/treasurers-attack-on-shorten-flops/?cs=14231

[AtorBoltox]

What is it with the medias visceral hatred for Shorten? They've been trying to peddle this narrative for years now that he's on the verge of collapse. It hasn't happened and it won't happen in the next month. This supposed 'coalition comeback' they've been peddling this week is pure fantasy

[Lachi]

What is it with the medias visceral hatred for Shorten? They've been trying to peddle this narrative for years now that he's on the verge of collapse. It hasn't happened and it won't happen in the next month. This supposed 'coalition comeback' they've been peddling this week is pure fantasy

All that needs to be said is that Rupert Murdoch owns most of our media.

[DC Al Fine]

A couple questions:

1) What are the major issues this election?

2) What are the odds that the small parties with one seat each (Green, Katter, Xenophon) retain their seats or pick up additional ones?

[AtorBoltox]

What is it with the medias visceral hatred for Shorten? They've been trying to peddle this narrative for years now that he's on the verge of collapse. It hasn't happened and it won't happen in the next month. This supposed 'coalition comeback' they've been peddling this week is pure fantasy

All that needs to be said is that Rupert Murdoch owns most of our media.

I get that, and I can also understand why Fairfax would oppose Labor, but even the Guardian and the ABC seem to have a visceral dislike of Shorten

[AtorBoltox]

A couple questions:

1) What are the major issues this election?

2) What are the odds that the small parties with one seat each (Green, Katter, Xenophon) retain their seats or pick up additional ones?

1-Anemic wage growth, climate change/environment, labor's tax plans
2-Greens will easily hold onto Melbourne, but it doesn't look likely they'll win anywhere else. Katter is an institution but his party is not seriously contesting any other seat, and Sharkie in Mayo seems to have established herself and is pretty popular there, however since 2016 the Xenephon party has mostly collapsed as a political force

[Lachi]

https://10daily.com.au/amp/shows/theproject/exclusive/a190418jmb/hamish-investigates-did-the-government-just-waste-80-million-buying-water-20190418?__twitter_impression=true

This is huge
Also in response to the ABC thing, their network funding is at the whim of the government, so it makes sense that they would be more like that to stop the government (who hates anything not owned my murdoch) from cutting their funding.

[Lachi]

Watergate now being picked up by the ABC, the Coalition is screwed now.

[Sestak]

Watergate now being picked up by the ABC, the Coalition is screwed now.

Were they not screwed already?

[Lachi]

Watergate now being picked up by the ABC, the Coalition is screwed now.

Were they not screwed already?

Yes, but with the Murdoch owned media being chewed up by the public, there's always the chance they could have come back, but something like this being picked up by now multiple networks, this puts the final nail in the coffin.

[morgieb]

Watergate now being picked up by the ABC, the Coalition is screwed now.

Were they not screwed already?

I don't know, 52/48 seems doable to run down if the Liberals run a good campaign and Labor made some mistakes. There's some strong parallels between Shorten and John Hewson...

[Lachi]

https://twitter.com/PatsKarvelas/status/1120141351285223424

No more hiding for Barnaby here.

[Lachi]

https://twitter.com/PatsKarvelas/status/1120269933638635520?s=19

The interview

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

If you want to make a map, MapChart just made a new Australian election map:

https://mapchart.net/australia-electoral-divisions.html

[cp]

Any locals wanna update on this? We're less that two weeks from E-day and it's hard to discern what's been cutting through among those of us in non-Oz.