Will Saskatchewan become the most become the most Conservative Cdn province?

[King of Kensington]

Saskatchewan is clearly the second most conservative Canadian province and has been trending rightward since the 1990s due to the death of "agrarian socialism" and resource politics.

Alberta is more urban and diverse and with less regional polarization I could see more "liberal" tendencies emerging in Calgary and Edmonton.  But in federal politics the Conservatives function as a sort of big tent "party of Alberta" that draws in the types of people that would be "blue Liberals" or populist NDPers if they lived in Ontario or BC (and these Albertans do vote for other parties in provincial elections).

The relatively strong showing of the Liberals in Calgary and Edmonton in the 2015 election suggested that Saskatchewan could displace Alberta as most conservative province.  Yes, Alberta was still 10 points more Conservative in the popular vote, but there seems to be more potential Liberal (and to a lesser extent NDP) growth in Alberta than in Saskatchewan where you see pretty much see the non-Conservative parties competitive in all the expected places (also Saskatchewan was the weakest province for the Liberals in 2015).

But now...Western alienation has come roaring back with a vengance, so maybe not so fast.

So...will Saskatchewan become the most conservative province any time soon?

[King of Kensington]

The Calgary elite ain't going Liberal. 

[King of Kensington]

They're very different.  My point is that both of these very different groups vote for the federal Conservatives.  The CPC really is that big a tent in Alberta.

[King of Kensington]

Saskatchewan is the less urbanized province (40% of its population is in Regina and Saskatoon, compared to 60% of Alberta's population is in Calgary and Edmonton).  But Calgary remains the most conservative city in the Prairies.  Interestingly Edmonton is more NDP than Regina and Saskatoon provincially, but less so federally.  Also the rural areas in AB are a bit more conservative than SK. 

[King of Kensington]

According to pollster Frank Graves, political views in Alberta and Saskatchewan are virtually identical these days.

[King of Kensington]

Pretty damn close.  Nothing but Conservatives elected in Saskatchewan.

[King of Kensington]

In 2021.