Rasmussen: Trump +3 over Sanders

[Skye]

Trump 47
Sanders 44

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_apr12

[libertpaulian]

So, after recalculating (R)asumussen's obvious bias...that should come out to a Sanders +2 PV victory?

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Rasmussen also thinks Trump has a 53% approval rating, so I'd just ignore them.


Not to mention their final generic ballot for 2018 was R+1 when the actual result was D+9.

[DrScholl]

Not that I trust Rasmussen on anything, but I have little doubt that Trump could beat Sanders based on Sanders being incredibly inept. The fact that his strategy involves targeting Oklahoma says volumes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie is a far left candidate, Trump would be able to beat him

[S019]

Bernie is a far left candidate, Trump would be able to beat

Thank you, this much better analysis than muh-Sanders can make OK competitive

Not that I trust Rasmussen on anything, but I have little doubt that Trump could beat Sanders based on Sanders being incredibly inept. The fact that his strategy involves targeting Oklahoma says volumes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are three variables that's causing this: especially among voters of color:

Sanders doesnt go into minority communities.  Alot of Blacks dislike Israel state of politics right now and its having an affect on Sanders.

Al Sharpton has cozied up to Harris and Beto and hasnt visited Bernie's campaign.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen also thinks Trump has a 53% approval rating, so I'd just ignore them.


Not to mention their final generic ballot for 2018 was R+1 when the actual result was D+9.

As expected, that 53% was a one-day blip that quickly faded.  In the 3 days since it's been 51, 50, 49.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Inb4 jfern blames Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the DNC for Bernie's poor poll numbers.

Trump is probably praying that Bernie wins the primary. I can hear it now: "The Democrats are going to nominate crazy Bernie Sanders, the guy who couldn't even beat Crooked Hillary Clinton, who I beat in the largest electoral college and popular vote landslide in our country's history! Sad!"

[Hollywood]

Trump has 46% of the vote in the bag.  I just do not see him going below that number even with a third party candidate.  Given the manner in which the Democrat primary candidates have decided to run their campaigns, I think Trump has an increasingly better chance of winning re-election.  Even Democrat media outlets are sounding the alarm.  The Democrat field has become too wide, and attacks on Trump have done little to help any particular candidate distinguish themselves from the rest of the field.  They are taking stances on reparations, which only 25% of Americans support. Half of all Democrats support it. This is the kind of rhetoric that portends a disaster for Democrats.  They are gonna run ao far left of each other, and attack those that don’t strictly adhere to far-left policy, that they might just beat themselves in the primary.  that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has 46% of the vote in the bag.  I just do not see him going below that number even with a third party candidate.  Given the manner in which the Democrat primary candidates have decided to run their campaigns, I think Trump has an increasingly better chance of winning re-election.  Even Democrat media outlets are sounding the alarm.  The Democrat field has become too wide, and attacks on Trump have done little to help any particular candidate distinguish themselves from the rest of the field.  They are taking stances on reparations, which only 25% of Americans support. Half of all Democrats support it. This is the kind of rhetoric that portends a disaster for Democrats.  They are gonna run ao far left of each other, and attack those that don’t strictly adhere to far-left policy, that they might just beat themselves in the primary.  that

Its a rally around the flag time, the race is tightening. By no means is the race won for Trump.  The Senate and House favors the Dems in VA, NH, NM, CO and Mi. The one state Dems have to worry about is WI and the DNC convention is there

The nominee will be: Beto, Biden or Harris. This poll shows that the Dem base likes Sanders, but general public don't

[Eraserhead]

Wow, a full thread of Bernie haters who suddenly take Rasmussen's polling seriously!

There are three variables that's causing this: especially among voters of color:

Sanders doesnt go into minority communities. Alot of Blacks dislike Israel state of politics right now and its having an affect on Sanders.

Al Sharpton has cozied up to Harris and Beto and hasnt visited Bernie's campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AL Sharpton and Oprah are protesting the Benjamin Netanyahu regime, due to his taking of Palestinian land over a two state solution.

Thus, they are told not to interview anyone in the Bernie Sanders campaign. In addition, Bernie has taken the unpopular position of not expanding SCOTUS. He should not shut the door on Crt packing

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's Rasmussen. They probably could have gotten a poll with Trump beating Harris by double digits.

[Eraserhead]

AL Sharpton and Oprah are protesting the Benjamin Netanyahu regime, due to his taking of Palestinian land over a two state solution.

Thus, they are told not to interview anyone in the Bernie Sanders campaign. In addition, Bernie has taken the unpopular position of not expanding SCOTUS. He should not shut the door on Crt packing

You do know that Sanders has been by far the most vocal critic of Netanyahu in the Democratic race (at least among the serious candidates), right?

So like basically everything you say, this makes no sense.

[538Electoral]

Rasmussen may not be that accurate. But like some, I do think Trump stands a chance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AL Sharpton and Oprah are protesting the Benjamin Netanyahu regime, due to his taking of Palestinian land over a two state solution.

Thus, they are told not to interview anyone in the Bernie Sanders campaign. In addition, Bernie has taken the unpopular position of not expanding SCOTUS. He should not shut the door on Crt packing

You do know that Sanders has been by far the most vocal critic of Netanyahu in the Democratic race (at least among the serious candidates), right?

So like basically everything you say, this makes no sense.

He stated he doesnt support Crt packing and Sharpton is using that against Bernie

[Progressive Pessimist]

So, after recalculating (R)asumussen's obvious bias...that should come out to a Sanders +2 PV victory?

That's probably an electoral college loss though.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

AL Sharpton and Oprah are protesting the Benjamin Netanyahu regime, due to his taking of Palestinian land over a two state solution.

Thus, they are told not to interview anyone in the Bernie Sanders campaign. In addition, Bernie has taken the unpopular position of not expanding SCOTUS. He should not shut the door on Crt packing

I suppose when you say "Bernie Sanders campaign" you mean something more like (((Bernie Sanders campaign)))?

lol

I find Bernie fairly difficult to predict in the 5-6 contested states that matter in 2020, although I think Ohio and Florida would go red.  I could see IA/WI/MI/PA go either way, despite conventional wisdom saying Bernie would have won the big 3 in 2016.

[User155815470020]

I support Bernie Sanders, but I agree that Trump will be competitive. Bernie will hold NH, CO, NV and may flip ME-02 and NE-02, but Donald will hold OH, IA, and FL, and may flip VA. Sanders will certainly win the popular vote, but Trump may edge out another victory in the Electoral College.

[pbrower2a]

Trump has 46% of the vote in the bag.  I just do not see him going below that number even with a third party candidate.  Given the manner in which the Democrat primary candidates have decided to run their campaigns, I think Trump has an increasingly better chance of winning re-election.  Even Democrat media outlets are sounding the alarm.  The Democrat field has become too wide, and attacks on Trump have done little to help any particular candidate distinguish themselves from the rest of the field.  They are taking stances on reparations, which only 25% of Americans support. Half of all Democrats support it. This is the kind of rhetoric that portends a disaster for Democrats.  They are gonna run ao far left of each other, and attack those that don’t strictly adhere to far-left policy, that they might just beat themselves in the primary.  that

Trump's nationwide approvals have typically been around 40% except with Rasmussen. Either Rasmussen is uniquely right and everyone else is wrong, or everyone else is right and Rasmussen is wrong for one of several possible reasons (bad methodology, fabrication, wishful thinking, or extreme bias).  It is possible to be uniquely right, as Galileo was about planetary motions or Einstein about relativity, but I question that Rasmussen is in that category.

(You show a bias by using the name Democrat as an adjective, which grates upon me almost as much as using the word Jew as an adjective.  "Democrat Party" is not quite as offensive as changing the "N" to a "J" in New York (heck, New York City is probably more Puerto Rican than Jewish) but it is awful.

The Democratic Party has a large field because Donald Trump seems unusually vulnerable. If the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana thinks that he has a better chance of becoming President of the United States than a Governor of Indiana or a Senator from Indiana despite either office being a more likely springboard to the Presidency, then the world has turned upside down.

No President has elicited more hatred than has President Trump. He made an appeal to working-class white people that he would make the educated middle class suffer, and he has fulfilled that promise. He has not made life better for any people other than the super-rich, rewarding easy money and punishing everyone else. President Trump has offended multitudes with his economic elitism, his cruelty, his reckless foreign policy, and his contempt for independent thought.

I am satisfied that the Democrat will not win more than about 53% of the popular vote. 47% is locked in as conservative. That said, Donald Trump is the wrong sort of conservative for much of the conservative vote. I could easily see a 51-8-41 split of the popular vote, with most of the 8% going to a more orthodox conservative who does not ridicule science and other learning, and who stands for a more traditional foreign policy. I remember a Presidential election in which the incumbent got 41% of the popular vote and the challenger got 51% of the vote.



No, it won't quite be like that. America then had less interstate polarization in political results. Reagan won 211 electoral votes with less than 50% of the popular vote and lost 49 electoral votes outright. Even against that he would have won 290-250. A Democratic win of the Presidency is more likely to look like Obama in 2008 in which the President wins about twenty states giving him margins of wins like those of Reagan in 1984 and margins of losses like those of McGovern in 1972.

Rasmussen is either crazy, incompetent, dishonest, or uniquely right. It is commonplace knowledge that in mental wards, the most insane people contend that they are the only truly sane people, and everyone else is crazy!
      

[S019]

I support Bernie Sanders, but I agree that Trump will be competitive. Bernie will hold NH, CO, NV and may flip ME-02 and NE-02, but Donald will hold OH, IA, and FL, and may flip VA. Sanders will certainly win the popular vote, but Trump may edge out another victory in the Electoral College.

Lol

Loudoun County
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third parties
2016   38.2% 69,949   55.1% 100,795   6.7% 12,296
2012   47.0% 75,292   51.5% 82,479   1.4% 2,289
2008   45.4% 63,336   53.7% 74,845   0.9% 1,278


Prince William County
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third parties
2016   36.5% 71,721   57.6% 113,144   5.9% 11,577
2012   41.3% 74,458   57.3% 103,331   1.3% 2,406
2008   41.6% 67,621   57.5% 93,435   0.9% 1,390

Fairfax County
Year   Republican   Democratic   Third parties
2016   28.6% 157,710   64.4% 355,133   7.0% 38,340
2012   39.1% 206,773   59.6% 315,273   1.4% 7,241
2008   38.9% 200,994   60.1% 310,359   1.0% 4,901

[President Johnson]

Obviously very biased. But even if you assume a Republican bias, Joe Biden beat Trump in the last Rassy poll by five points while the Burn is losing. Quite amazing.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I support Bernie Sanders, but I agree that Trump will be competitive. Bernie will hold NH, CO, NV and may flip ME-02 and NE-02, but Donald will hold OH, IA, and FL, and may flip VA. Sanders will certainly win the popular vote, but Trump may edge out another victory in the Electoral College.

This map isn't happening.

It's not 2004 anymore.

[User155815470020]

I support Bernie Sanders, but I agree that Trump will be competitive. Bernie will hold NH, CO, NV and may flip ME-02 and NE-02, but Donald will hold OH, IA, and FL, and may flip VA. Sanders will certainly win the popular vote, but Trump may edge out another victory in the Electoral College.

This map isn't happening.

It's not 2004 anymore.

Trump winning Virginia is is based on VA's tendency to support conservative or moderate Democrats in Senate and gubernatorial elections. Trump is unpopular in NoVA, but if the idea of Sanders and 'scary socialism' turns out rural voters in southern Virginia, perhaps Trump could win. This is not something I want to happen, and I agree it is unlikely, but I do question if Sanders is perhaps too left-wing for some conservative and establishment Democrats in the NoVA area, which includes D.C.