Trump has 46% of the vote in the bag. I just do not see him going below that number even with a third party candidate. Given the manner in which the Democrat primary candidates have decided to run their campaigns, I think Trump has an increasingly better chance of winning re-election. Even Democrat media outlets are sounding the alarm. The Democrat field has become too wide, and attacks on Trump have done little to help any particular candidate distinguish themselves from the rest of the field. They are taking stances on reparations, which only 25% of Americans support. Half of all Democrats support it. This is the kind of rhetoric that portends a disaster for Democrats. They are gonna run ao far left of each other, and attack those that don’t strictly adhere to far-left policy, that they might just beat themselves in the primary. that
Trump's nationwide approvals have typically been around 40% except with Rasmussen. Either Rasmussen is uniquely right and everyone else is wrong, or everyone else is right and Rasmussen is wrong for one of several possible reasons (bad methodology, fabrication, wishful thinking, or extreme bias). It is possible to be uniquely right, as Galileo was about planetary motions or Einstein about relativity, but I question that Rasmussen is in that category.
(You show a bias by using the name
Democrat as an adjective, which grates upon me almost as much as using the word
Jew as an adjective. "Democrat Party" is not quite as offensive as changing the "N" to a "J" in
New York (heck, New York City is probably more Puerto Rican than Jewish) but it is awful.
The Democratic Party has a large field because Donald Trump seems unusually vulnerable. If the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana thinks that he has a better chance of becoming President of the United States than a Governor of Indiana or a Senator from Indiana despite either office being a more likely springboard to the Presidency, then the world has turned upside down.
No President has elicited more hatred than has President Trump. He made an appeal to working-class white people that he would make the educated middle class suffer, and he has fulfilled that promise. He has not made life better for any people other than the super-rich, rewarding easy money and punishing everyone else. President Trump has offended multitudes with his economic elitism, his cruelty, his reckless foreign policy, and his contempt for independent thought.
I am satisfied that the Democrat will not win more than about 53% of the popular vote. 47% is locked in as conservative. That said, Donald Trump is the wrong sort of conservative for much of the conservative vote. I could easily see a 51-8-41 split of the popular vote, with most of the 8% going to a more orthodox conservative who does not ridicule science and other learning, and who stands for a more traditional foreign policy. I remember a Presidential election in which the incumbent got 41% of the popular vote and the challenger got 51% of the vote.
No, it won't quite be like that. America then had less interstate polarization in political results. Reagan won 211 electoral votes with less than 50% of the popular vote and lost 49 electoral votes outright. Even against that he would have won 290-250. A Democratic win of the Presidency is more likely to look like Obama in 2008 in which the President wins about twenty states giving him margins of wins like those of Reagan in 1984 and margins of losses like those of McGovern in 1972.
Rasmussen is either crazy, incompetent, dishonest, or uniquely right. It is commonplace knowledge that in mental wards, the most insane people contend that they are the only truly sane people, and everyone else is crazy!
