Trump approval ratings thread 1.5
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Author Topic: Trump approval ratings thread 1.5  (Read 125609 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: April 09, 2019, 02:12:24 PM »
« edited: June 15, 2019, 06:29:14 PM by pbrower2a »

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=297289.0
Old thread.

This will soon be the new thread for polling involving Donald Trump. When I start this thread (and I am not opening it until after the old thread has 1950 or so posts -- it is just past 1900) I want something that contains 'my' utilities and perhaps yours, as well as the latest compilations of data relevant in the new thread.

But "1.4" is moribund due to getting filled. The 2000th, "witching post" is fast approaching. Things might get interesting when much of the Mueller report is available for us to  (ahem!) mull over, but that will probably appear heavily in this thread.

Please do not post here until I fully open this thread.  For now I do not welcome your posts. I have my own stuff to install, including utilities and historical basics. I am going to open and close this thread until I put in it what I consider necessary as a start. Keep using "1.4" to report polls and polling data.    

Modification on June 15:

Here is some statistical data that belongs here. When we run out of space on "Thread 1.5", this will be highly useful. From Electoral-vote.com:





   
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2019, 02:39:01 PM »

So Rasmussen has Trump at +8 points today at 53/45. They also put this opinion piece on their website.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_brian_joondeph/trump_is_popping_in_the_polls

So, I ask again, why do RCP and 538 continue to include them in their aggregates? They're terrible performance in 2018 along with huge outliers this last week are proof they've dropped any pretext of being an actual pollster.
RCP is the same website that thought Bush would win California

I'm less annoyed RCP includes Rasmussen - just another datapoint to throw into the average - as I am that they routinely exclude outlier polls that benefit Democrats with no explanation.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2019, 03:05:07 PM »

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Thatkat04
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« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2019, 03:50:40 PM »
« Edited: April 09, 2019, 03:57:58 PM by Thatkat04 »

Its just quite frustrating because they're having a pretty large effect on RCP. I'm terrible at math, but Trump would be around -10 without the Rasmussen poll. Instead he's at -7.8. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say they're trying to make it seem like Trump got a Mueller report bump. I would not be surprised if they show Trump at +10 tomorrow, there by skewing the aggregates even more.

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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2019, 04:12:56 PM »

So the great conspiracy is that RCP's Grand Plan is to influence the election by giving Trump an extra point?

RCP (prefers registered or likely if there is):
44.0/51.8

538 (polls of likely or registered voters):
43.5/51.9


Got it.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2019, 04:38:04 PM »

Ras has had outliers (in both directions) before.  They usually correct within a few days.
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Thatkat04
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« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2019, 04:59:40 PM »

So the great conspiracy is that RCP's Grand Plan is to influence the election by giving Trump an extra point?

RCP (prefers registered or likely if there is):
44.0/51.8

538 (polls of likely or registered voters):
43.5/51.9


Got it.

Thats clearly not what anybody said.

Ras has had outliers (in both directions) before.  They usually correct within a few days.

More than likely. I'm just surprised after 2018 they're calling attention to themselves again after another huge outlier. You'd think they'd be trying to recover what little reputation they had before 2012. I remember growing up watching politics and Rasmussen regularly being cited as a a gold standard along with Zogby. 
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« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2019, 07:22:36 PM »

So Rasmussen has Trump at +8 points today at 53/45. They also put this opinion piece on their website.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_brian_joondeph/trump_is_popping_in_the_polls

So, I ask again, why do RCP and 538 continue to include them in their aggregates? They're terrible performance in 2018 along with huge outliers this last week are proof they've dropped any pretext of being an actual pollster.
RCP is the same website that thought Bush would win California

I'm less annoyed RCP includes Rasmussen - just another datapoint to throw into the average - as I am that they routinely exclude outlier polls that benefit Democrats with no explanation.

You haven't realized yet that RCP has a right-wing bias?
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American2020
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« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2019, 06:47:34 AM »

In their latest poll:

27% definitely re-elect Trump
10% probably re-elect Trump
7% probably vote for someone else
48% definitely vote for someone else

So, a total of 37% definitely/probably vs. 55% probably not/definitely not.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016a-032b-dcb9-af7a-e7ff39760001
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2019, 07:46:55 AM »

California: Quinnipiac, April 3-8, 482 RV

(Before anyone calls this a useless poll, its purpose was to poll the Democratic primary.  These questions were just extras.)

Approve 30
Disapprove 64

Quote
one of the president's worst grades in any Quinnipiac University nationwide or state poll since he was elected.

In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?

Definitely yes 21
Consider 14
Definitely not 59
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Person Man
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« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2019, 07:58:09 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2019, 08:04:29 AM by Edgar Suit Larry »

In their latest poll:

27% definitely re-elect Trump
10% probably re-elect Trump
7% probably vote for someone else
48% definitely vote for someone else

So, a total of 37% definitely/probably vs. 55% probably not/definitely not.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016a-032b-dcb9-af7a-e7ff39760001

I can buy that unless there is a huge change in circumstances, that 48% of the voting population will never vote for Trump. Being that the economy is juiced up with tax cuts, loans, and speculation, there are no secular factors that can bail him out. Outside of a black swan that makes him a legend, he gets past 50% of the popular vote only if he runs one of the best campaigns in modern history and the Democrats run one of the worst. At this point, I still think he wins but with a much narrower electoral vote victory. He still probably barely loses the popular vote and he wins because of a few thousand votes in New Hampshire in Wisconsin. Maybe he does slightly better in Florida due to the graying population but does worse in Iowa and Ohio because of his tariffs and just acting like a rich asshole instead of a “populist”. Even if he loses, I can see Trump doing about as well as Reynolds or DeWine. Maybe as well as Obama’s first run in Florida. It could be a DeSantis level thing if he loses but not by a lot. That almost never happens to previously elected incumbents though. In general, I expect him to pull another one out of his ass in 2020 because otherwise he will get his ass totally screwed until it’s complete pulp. It’s still a ways away but I think the window for the catalyst for that is slipping. It looks like maybe the relativistically wealthy are thinking they can get one of their own over the hump by just not calling in their loans and letting people live off them for a little while longer. Probably the same way they waited out Obama. They couldn’t show the upstart who was boss but they were at least able to cripple his agenda by refusing to lend anymore until Washington swung back to the right. It usually works unless something else happens.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2019, 08:53:06 AM »

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 6-9, 1500 adults including 1267 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+1)

RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2019, 09:22:38 AM »

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 6-9, 1500 adults including 1267 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+1)

RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)



That’s not good for business...
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2019, 01:04:32 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2019, 01:25:40 PM by Russian Bear »




Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2019, 01:51:24 PM »




Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51



I would say his floor is 42, 46 will not vote for him. He needs undecideds 2 to 1.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2019, 01:53:18 PM »




Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51

This supports a trend in recent polls that I find quite interesting.  The intention to vote for or against Trump has been running several points below his approval rating in most polls that ask both questions.  Generally for an incumbent, I would expect them to get a vote share that's at least as high as their approval numbers, and probably a bit better; voters might not be crazy about an incumbent, but might not dislike him enough to turn him out.  In Trump's case, it may be that some voters think he's done an OK job as President, but are turned off enough by his personality, scandals, and other baggage that they'd rather have someone new.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2019, 02:09:28 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2019, 06:35:56 PM by pbrower2a »

Tarrance polling, Virginia:

Trump:

strong approval, 31%
approval  13%
disapproval 8%
strong disapproval 44%

deserves re-election 38%
give new person a chance 57%

https://www.tarrance.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BG-64-questionnaire.pdf




Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51

This supports a trend in recent polls that I find quite interesting.  The intention to vote for or against Trump has been running several points below his approval rating in most polls that ask both questions.  Generally for an incumbent, I would expect them to get a vote share that's at least as high as their approval numbers, and probably a bit better; voters might not be crazy about an incumbent, but might not dislike him enough to turn him out.  In Trump's case, it may be that some voters think he's done an OK job as President, but are turned off enough by his personality, scandals, and other baggage that they'd rather have someone new.

I think of Nixon, who was recognized as having done some good things (and for many people -- with Trump -- that means sticking it to the educated middle class and to ethnic or religious minorities, which is hardly my idea of goodness) but started to get scary. The downfall of this President will be abuse of power. With Nixon, the abuse of power was strictly for partisan ends. I can't imagine a President being in a stronger position politically than he was in 1972 when he had conservative Southern Democrats on his side on most political issues -- but he chose to go after them. With Trump it is his own bigotry and his elitist economics.

This also seems to apply to the recent Virginia poll.

California, Quinnipiac -- 59% definitely not... enough said. California disapproval 60%...

The highest category that I have for Trump disapproval is "above 55%", which allows no distinction for disapproval in the 60's. The States elect the President, and the margin makes no difference in any state. If Trump should lose California by an 80-20 margin, then the Democrat would win the state as if getting only 53% of the popular vote. Of course, if one projects Trump to lose California by only a 52-47 margin that obviously means that the Democrats would have a problem elsewhere, as in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.


Approval and disapproval ratings of Donald Trump:




With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 91
40-43% 35
under 40%  144

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

27 more states, and 193 electoral votes to go!    

To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:



8% or higher margin against Trump -- maroon
4-7.9% against Trump -- medium red
under 4% margin against Trump -- pink

I have yet to see exact ties or 'better' for Trump.


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Person Man
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« Reply #17 on: April 10, 2019, 02:13:07 PM »




Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51

This supports a trend in recent polls that I find quite interesting.  The intention to vote for or against Trump has been running several points below his approval rating in most polls that ask both questions.  Generally for an incumbent, I would expect them to get a vote share that's at least as high as their approval numbers, and probably a bit better; voters might not be crazy about an incumbent, but might not dislike him enough to turn him out.  In Trump's case, it may be that some voters think he's done an OK job as President, but are turned off enough by his personality, scandals, and other baggage that they'd rather have someone new.
Didn’t Obama have the same problem? A lot of voters were frustrated with the drama and liked to think of themselves as keeping an open mind. A few million eventually defected but with the countercurrents caused by his opponent, he was still able to maintain half of his margin.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2019, 06:14:48 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2019, 06:32:25 PM by pbrower2a »




Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51

This supports a trend in recent polls that I find quite interesting.  The intention to vote for or against Trump has been running several points below his approval rating in most polls that ask both questions.  Generally for an incumbent, I would expect them to get a vote share that's at least as high as their approval numbers, and probably a bit better; voters might not be crazy about an incumbent, but might not dislike him enough to turn him out.  In Trump's case, it may be that some voters think he's done an OK job as President, but are turned off enough by his personality, scandals, and other baggage that they'd rather have someone new.
Didn’t Obama have the same problem? A lot of voters were frustrated with the drama and liked to think of themselves as keeping an open mind. A few million eventually defected but with the countercurrents caused by his opponent, he was still able to maintain half of his margin.

Obama had more of a margin  that he could lose. The Obama margin went from 7.26% in 2008 to 3.86%, a decrease of 3.40% Trump won with less than a national plurality in the popular vote, so what does a 3.40% deterioration do to his chances of winning re-election?

He loses four states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida that he won in 2016, while barely holding onto Arizona and North Carolina.

My "to Trump or not to Trump" maps so far suggest Trump losing at best for the Republican Party like the elder Bush in 1992 or at worst like Carter 1980 or Hoover 1932. My simple approval-disapproval maps suggest a not-so-severe Trump loss.  President Trump needs miracles or a rigged election to get re-elected. 
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Person Man
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« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2019, 07:13:55 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2019, 07:29:06 PM by Edgar Suit Larry »




Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51

This supports a trend in recent polls that I find quite interesting.  The intention to vote for or against Trump has been running several points below his approval rating in most polls that ask both questions.  Generally for an incumbent, I would expect them to get a vote share that's at least as high as their approval numbers, and probably a bit better; voters might not be crazy about an incumbent, but might not dislike him enough to turn him out.  In Trump's case, it may be that some voters think he's done an OK job as President, but are turned off enough by his personality, scandals, and other baggage that they'd rather have someone new.
Didn’t Obama have the same problem? A lot of voters were frustrated with the drama and liked to think of themselves as keeping an open mind. A few million eventually defected but with the countercurrents caused by his opponent, he was still able to maintain half of his margin.

Obama had more of a margin  that he could lose. The Obama margin went from 7.26% in 2008 to 3.86%, a decrease of 3.40% Trump won with less than a national plurality in the popular vote, so what does a 3.40% deterioration do to his chances of winning re-election?

He loses four states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida that he won in 2016, while barely holding onto Arizona and North Carolina.

My "to Trump or not to Trump" maps so far suggest Trump losing at best for the Republican Party like the elder Bush in 1992 or at worst like Carter 1980 or Hoover 1932. My simple approval-disapproval maps suggest a not-so-severe Trump loss.  President Trump needs miracles or a rigged election to get re-elected.  

I still think the most likely scenario is that there is just a year and a half of the same sh**t and that voter the Democrats need in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, or Florida will be saying to themselves or to anyone who asks that "Trump is a total douche, but I am not too sure about this guy the Dems put up there. S/he's kind of awkward and a little insincere. Nevermind all the possible corruption and serious doubts about their national loyalty and trustworthiness that have come to light about them since the summer.  I have a job. My kids are getting enough to eat. My brother's in the service and not getting his balls shot off in some sand box a gazillion miles away. Heck it. I'm going to vote for Trump. I don't like it but I think I can wait another four years and maybe the Democrats will get their sh**t together and put somebody up there worth voting for in 2024."

https://www.270towin.com/maps/2X6yB - Trump wins the popular vote but its so close that even without a strong 3rd party candidate, he doesn't  win a majority. He does quite a bit worse in the EV, though. Raising hopes that the Democrats aren't going to struggle as much in the EV in the future.


Basically Bush versus Kerry all over again. Bush starts with a deficit in the popular vote and a more unified opposition but ends up doing about as well as anyone could have reasonably expected him to do because the nation collectively has realized that they needed lose 20 or 30 pounds but that they were on vacation or something and this wasn't the best time to start a diet.



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American2020
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« Reply #20 on: April 11, 2019, 09:23:21 AM »

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« Reply #21 on: April 11, 2019, 10:13:43 AM »



Is this tweet fake news or did this fake news actually happen?
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« Reply #22 on: April 11, 2019, 10:35:53 AM »



Is this tweet fake news or did this fake news actually happen?

It actually happened. No surprise it was Lou Dobbs of all people.
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Person Man
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« Reply #23 on: April 11, 2019, 12:32:59 PM »



Is this tweet fake news or did this fake news actually happen?

It actually happened. No surprise it was Lou Dobbs of all people.

He’s arguably a bigger basement dweller than Tucker Carlson. Figures.
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Skye
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« Reply #24 on: April 11, 2019, 12:40:57 PM »

AJC Poll for Georgia:

Trump approval:

Approve: 40
Disapprove: 56

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-kemp-approval-ratings-the-rise-trump-still-underwater/5EDalXwOSNvonieS90ixEN/
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