Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL, 538 adjusted that puppy *down* to 37%.

MC has usually been kind of favorable for Trump, so it's not surprising.  This could be an outlier, of course.

[pbrower2a]

LOL, 538 adjusted that puppy *down* to 37%.

MC has usually been kind of favorable for Trump, so it's not surprising.  This could be an outlier, of course.

Ipsos / Reuters, 1005 adults, Apr 18-19:
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-TRUMP-RUSSIA-POLL/010091JB28J/Mueller%20Investigation%20Report%2004%2019%202019%20TRENDED%20PID.pdf

Approve: 37 (-6)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)

Oof.

Terrible poll for Trump.  Impeachment went from 39/49 in March to 40/42 now.  Whether he should resign went from 46/46 to 47/37.  Even 22% of Republicans said Trump should resign!

Two outliers can happen, but it is unlikely that one has two. Polls often come in on Tuesday, and those involving a full weekend after the Mueller Report will start coming in. Approval and disapproval numbers for this President have been remarkably stable. 6% drops in approval for a President in one week are rare. Both are outside the usual 4% margin of error.

[pbrower2a]

It's an interral poll for Bernie Sanders, so take it with a grain of salt. Actually three statewide polls. I was polled in Michigan (the other two states were Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). It was not a push poll, as questions were asked with no obvious bias. Most obviously, on approval and disapproval of Donald Trump as President:

Michigan 41-58
Pennsylvania 41-57
Wisconsin 42-55

That is approval to disapproval, and if the polling that I got was indicative, it was before the release of the redacted Mueller Report.

So how does Sanders do against Trump? Apparently not as well as the margin suggests, but (if this polling is right) well enough to win these three states solidly:

Michigan 52-41
Pennsylvania 51-43
Wisconsin 52-42

with Trump getting a vote share close to his approval number, but Sanders falling short of Trump's disapproval number.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5974060-Tulchin-Research-Memo-Sanders-Defeating-Trump-in.html

Because it is an internal poll I am not putting it on the map. For practically any other Democrat, I see Trump losses in all three states . Trump can afford to lose two of these unless he loses Florida (in which case he must win Michigan and Pennsylvania) or one if he should lose Arizona, Georgia (which seems to be in play), or North Carolina. Ohio? Trump is not losing either Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.  Iowa doesn't figure because (1) it is demographically close to Wisconsin and will probably go with Wisconsin anyway, and (2) there seems to be no other state with fewer than ten electoral votes that Trump lost that seems in play this time.

I'm changing my mind on this. The two nationwide polls that have come out after the Mueller Report suggest a huge drop in Trump approval, and these may be among the last polls to show three critical states before such. The general rule is that (unless you see a problem with the methodology) if you do not like a poll, then wait for a new one. Besides, we are running low on the number of posts available before we start using "Trump approval ratings thread, 1.5" I have yet to see any statewide polls following the disclosure of the redacted Mueller Report.

In any event, some horrid polls for Trump appear in some other states that seemed even more sympathetic to him, and these three polls fit. "To Trump or not to Trump" does not change. Trump is not winning with these numbers.

Approval and disapproval ratings of Donald Trump:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 50
40-43% 77
under 40%  144

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

27 more states, and 193 electoral votes to go!    

To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

8% or higher margin against Trump -- maroon
4-7.9% against Trump -- medium red
under 4% margin against Trump -- pink

I have yet to see exact ties or 'better' for Trump.      
  




  

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

We shall really see this week if these polls are outliers or not. Looks like Romney might really have caused a dent. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1120698974686646272

[HisGrace]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1120698974686646272

He's down way more than "a couple" points in that politico poll. -5 in approval and +6 in disapproval. That's 100% after the report came out.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1120698974686646272

Well, I doubt they are organized enough to lie to or ignore pollsters in unison. Occam's razor is that they know they royally screwed up but will not own the mistake. I think now that Democrats might actually do better but once they are given another chance, who knows.

Though a bigger Occams razor is that YouGov was given at the wrong time to measure the impact or it's an outlier for some other hidden variable.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Isn't YouGov basically poo?

[Person Man]

Isn't YouGov basically poo?

I get so much spam from them.

[Thatkat04]

Isn't YouGov basically poo?

Neither YouGov, Morning Consult or Reuters/Ipsos are what I'd classify as "good" pollsters. I'd say we need to wait for one of the gold standards that polled after the Barr summary to go back into the field and see if there was any movement. Untill then, delving deep into online pollster's daily numbers doesnt seem all that productive.  

[Sorenroy]

If I'm going through these threads in a year, it will be awfully confusing that there is a gap between 1.4 and 1.6. Also, your holdup is that there used to be a 1.5 thread that got merged? That makes no sense. The 1.5 thread no longer exists and the only mention of it is buried deep in the middle of the 1.4 thread. Make this 1.5.

It is 1.5 now.

Thank.

[pbrower2a]

We will see a good one soon enough.  It's the movement that marks the Ipsos and Morning Consult polls -- and it is huge movement.

If there should be a statewide poll, then we might see a contrast for a state. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation (monthly), April 11-16, 1203 adults

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov (weekly), April 21-23, 1500 adults including 1268 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

RV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

2020: Generic D 41 (+2), Trump 35 (+2)

[Thatkat04]

More YouGov. Lovely. /s

[pbrower2a]

It's Zogby, and it is Trump vs. someone else among likely voters. Wisconsin, the tipping-point state of 2016 and close to such in 2020:



Trump loses to everyone, at least if one ignores any margin of error.

[Person Man]

It's Zogby, and it is Trump vs. someone else among likely voters. Wisconsin, the tipping-point state of 2016 and close to such in 2020:



Trump loses to everyone, at least if one ignores any margin of error.

41% is his absolute floor and 52% is his absolute ceiling.
He will realistically lose some neutral voters and win some. Say 20% each way.

So it's probably more like 43 to 50. Anything outside of that would imply someone's campaign is in disarray going forward. Anything above 48 or below 45 for Trump could be described as over or under performance.

[pbrower2a]

Unless there is a split in the Left side of the political spectrum, Trump does not win with less than 45% in practically any state.

[Person Man]

Unless there is a split in the Left side of the political spectrum, Trump does not win with less than 45% in practically any state.

Or a split in the middle.

[ajc0918]

Awful poll for the President.

[Crumpets]

Zogby is fake news.

[lfromnj]

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&trendline=true&map=true

This one looks pretty good overall although probably has the same underestimate WWC support for Trump and overestimate Hispanic support for Trump outside FL.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ABC/WaPo, April 22-25, 1001 adults (previous poll in late Jan.)


Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-4)

[Thatkat04]

ABC/WaPo, April 22-25, 1001 adults (previous poll in late Jan.)


Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-4)

Thats frustrating. But these numbers seems to give merit to the theory that Mueller and Russia are already built into Trump's numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ABC/WaPo, April 22-25, 1001 adults (previous poll in late Jan.)


Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-4)

Thats frustrating. But these numbers seems to give merit to the theory that Mueller and Russia are already built into Trump's numbers.

Well, the prior poll was in the middle of the shutdown, which was a period when Trump's numbers were generally awful.  The two before that were 40/53 (Nov.) and 41/54 (Oct.)