Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Politician]

Trump's new strategy to flip MN seems to be backfiring.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump probably loses Minnesota by 6-8 points.

[Storr]

Trump's new strategy to flip MN seems to be backfiring.

Yeah because his strategy has been: "hey look, a state with a lot of white people. that must mean they love Trump".

[pbrower2a]

It's not that white people support Trump: it's that dumb white people support him!

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Trump's new strategy to flip MN seems to be backfiring.

Yeah because his strategy has been: "hey look, a state with a lot of white people. that must mean they love Trump".

His strategy isn't even that smart, considering that he's also targeting New Mexico.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump's new strategy to flip MN seems to be backfiring.

Yeah because his strategy has been: "hey look, a state with a lot of white people. that must mean they love Trump".

His strategy isn't even that smart, considering that he's also targeting New Mexico.

We all thought he was dumb targeting Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin too.

Not trying to defend him; I think he’s unlikely to win MN or NM but it can’t be discounted and considering his cash on hand he’s not stupid to try.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The sample is a bit old, but this poll was just published:

Public Religion Research Institute American Values Survey, Aug. 22-Sep. 15, 957 adults

Trump approval (change from Oct. 2018):

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Strongly approve 19 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)


Trump favorability (change from April):

Very favorable 15 (-6)
Mostly favorable 20 (-3)
Mostly unfavorable 16 (-2)
Very unfavorable 48 (+14)

Net: favorable 35 (-9), unfavorable 64 (+12)

 

[Person Man]

Trump's new strategy to flip MN seems to be backfiring.

Yeah because his strategy has been: "hey look, a state with a lot of white people. that must mean they love Trump".

His strategy isn't even that smart, considering that he's also targeting New Mexico.

We all thought he was dumb targeting Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin too.

Not trying to defend him; I think he’s unlikely to win MN or NM but it can’t be discounted and considering his cash on hand he’s not stupid to try.

As a Republican, you HAVE to target the Frost Belt. With Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, and Nevada slipping away, you can't just win in Ohio or Florida anymore.

[Person Man]

Even ARG is getting in on the act.

https://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/
          Approval  Disapproval

              (-3%)   (+1%)
Oct 2019   37%   59%   4%
Sep 2019   40%   58%   2%

42% of voters think the economy is getting worse.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the addition of the ARG, PRRI, and new Rasmussen (relatively bad for Trump at 45/53) polls, the 538 average is now at a net -13.3 (41.1/54.4), which is the lowest since February.

[Person Man]

With the addition of the ARG, PRRI, and new Rasmussen (relatively bad for Trump at 45/53) polls, the 538 average is now at a net -13.3 (41.1/54.4), which is the lowest since February.

I don't think he goes any lower. I don't think he rises above -7, either. At -7, he still loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college against a weak challenger.

[pbrower2a]

The sample is a bit old, but this poll was just published:

Public Religion Research Institute American Values Survey, Aug. 22-Sep. 15, 957 adults

Trump approval (change from Oct. 2018):

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Strongly approve 19 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)


Trump favorability (change from April):

Very favorable 15 (-6)
Mostly favorable 20 (-3)
Mostly unfavorable 16 (-2)
Very unfavorable 48 (+14)

Net: favorable 35 (-9), unfavorable 64 (+12)

 

60% disapproval is in the zone in which the incumbent President loses about the same as did Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1980.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marquette U. Law, Sep. 3-13, 1423 adults. 

This is a rare nationwide poll from Marquette, which usually polls only Wisconsin.

Approve 40
Disapprove 60

Strongly approve 20
Strongly disapprove 46

Biden 45, Trump 34
Warren 40, Trump 35

[President Johnson]

60% disapproval is pretty stark. The point is, I don't see how these fundamentals change much over the next twelve months. Unless the election is rigged or a strong third party emerges, Trump should be in real danger.

[Person Man]

60% disapproval is pretty stark. The point is, I don't see how these fundamentals change much over the next twelve months. Unless the election is rigged or a strong third party emerges, Trump should be in real danger.

The way he wins is that there is low turnout and he gets really lucky again.

[emailking]

60% disapproval is pretty stark. The point is, I don't see how these fundamentals change much over the next twelve months. Unless the election is rigged or a strong third party emerges, Trump should be in real danger.

The way he wins is that there is low turnout and he gets really lucky again.

I guess but that seems unlikely, partly by construction.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, Oct. 17-20, 1003 adults including 892 RV (change from early Sept.)

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Impeachment and removal:

Yes 50 (+3)
No 43 (-2)

[Person Man]

CNN/SSRS, Oct. 17-20, 1003 adults including 892 RV (change from early Sept.)

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Impeachment and removal:

Yes 50 (+3)
No 43 (-2)

More people want this jack ass gone but in reality, half of the people who didn't make up their minds, made up their minds.

[ajc0918]

UNF - Florida

Paywall: https://t.co/8D988rOM8R

Approve - 45%
Disapprove - 53%

Poll has a slight GOP lean by party split according to this reporter.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1186605661716697088

[pbrower2a]

UNF - Florida

Paywall: https://t.co/8D988rOM8R

Approve - 45%
Disapprove - 53%

Poll has a slight GOP lean by party split according to this reporter.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1186605661716697088

Ohio: Climate Nexus, Oct. 1-7, 1112 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 41

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 48

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 51, Trump 49
Harris 50, Trump 50
Buttigieg 50, Trump 50

This is Florida, which swings rather little but tends to go with the winner by a narrow margin. A 53-47 split of the popular vote in Florida suggests about a 55-45 split nationwide but is also consistent with about a 60-40 split against the President. 55-45 suggests at the least 375 electoral votes for the Democrat, which is about what Clinton got when Perot split the conservative side of the political spectrum.  

Trump is not winning the Electoral College without Florida, and my recent assessments that the margin between the most likely results for the 2020 Presidential election is Texas, which has 38 electoral votes and straddles 400 for a Democrat, as usual.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GP270watch]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

[Person Man]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

[GP270watch]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

[Person Man]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

Just that he has a history of getting people to show up to vote for him who haven’t really showed any intention of doing so.

[Cinemark]

Emerson reverts back their usual mid-single digit disapproval rating:

Approval - 43%(-5%)
Disapprove - 47%(=)

Oddly enough, more voters favor impeachment than disapprove.

Impeachment
Favor - 48%
Oppose - 44%

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-sanders-warren-maintain-front-runner-status-in-democratic-primary