Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Person Man]

Emerson reverts back their usual mid-single digit disapproval rating:

Approval - 43%(-5%)
Disapprove - 47%(=)

Oddly enough, more voters favor impeachment than disapprove.

Impeachment
Favor - 48%
Oppose - 44%

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-sanders-warren-maintain-front-runner-status-in-democratic-primary

"I can't complain but he needs to go." Who says that?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson reverts back their usual mid-single digit disapproval rating:

Approval - 43%(-5%)
Disapprove - 47%(=)

Oddly enough, more voters favor impeachment than disapprove.

Impeachment
Favor - 48%
Oppose - 44%

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-sanders-warren-maintain-front-runner-status-in-democratic-primary

"I can't complain but he needs to go." Who says that?

I suppose it's possible that a person could approve of Trump's accomplishments to date, but think he's crossed the line with Ukraine and/or Syria.

[GP270watch]

 They could also be sick of Trump and not really care about the job he's doing.

[pbrower2a]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

People who disapprove of Trump are not going to vote for him. At this point, 60% disapproval means that Trump has lost some support from people on the Right -- people who might end up voting for a Third Party or independent alternative to Trump.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1186822019138162688

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1186822019138162688

60% disapprove among RV's. I like that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Oct. 17-21, 1587 RV (change from last week)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 58 (+4)

Strongly approve 28 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 53 (+5)

I believe this is at least a tie for Trump's worst approval by Quinnipiac.

Impeachment inquiry:

Approve 55 (+4)
Disapprove 43 (-2)

Remove Trump:

Yes 48 (+2)
No 46 (-2)

[ajc0918]

Independent voters support impeachment AND removal 49%-41%. That's significant.

[Person Man]

This could be it. Probably not though.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Independent voters support impeachment AND removal 49%-41%. That's significant.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Rassy had Trump at 52%/46% before Ukraine. Now it's 45%/52%.

Are we going to see Trump's 538 net approval fall below -20 for the first time since 2017?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rassy had Trump at 52%/46% before Ukraine. Now it's 45%/52%.

Are we going to see Trump's 538 net approval fall below -20 for the first time since 2017?

It's currently at -13.5, so -20 is a long way to go.  I think -15 is quite possible in the near future, though.

Today's Ras is 44/53.  This is the lowest since the shutdown in January except for one day in May where it hit 44/54.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That strongly disapprove number is... oh boy...

[Gass3268]

Mississippi-Mason Dixon:

Approve 54%
Disapprove 42%

Source

[pbrower2a]

Mississippi-Mason Dixon:

Approve 54%
Disapprove 42%

Source

A state rarely polled chimes in. Mississippi, long the most backward state in America, is backward in its political life... but note that Trump approval is under 55%. Mississippi will be one of the best states for Trump in 2020. This tepid level of approval says much.  

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Dr. Arch]

Mississippi-Mason Dixon:

Approve 54%
Disapprove 42%

Source

A state rarely polled chimes in. Mississippi, long the most backward state in America, is backward in its political life... but note that Trump approval is under 55%. Mississippi will be one of the best states for Trump in 2020. This tepid level of approval says much. 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

You need to flip the color on MS to blue.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 20-22, 1500 adults including 1204 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 49 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-1)

Generic D 40 (-1), Trump 36 (nc)

Impeach? Yes 44 (-3), No 40 (+2)

Remove? Yes 45 (-3), No 41 (+4)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (nc)

Generic D 49 (nc), Trump 40 (nc)

Impeach? Yes 49 (-4), No 43 (+3)

Remove? Yes 49 (-4), No 43 (+3)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (-1), R 40 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Oct. 18-21, 1989 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-3)

Current impeachment inquiry: support 48 (-2), oppose 42 (-1)

Impeaching Trump: support 50 (-1), oppose 42 (+1)

Trump removal: support 49 (-2), oppose 43 (+2)

[Horus]

Impeachment is definitely firing up the base and creating some sympathy, though after today's shenanigans at the hearing I doubt it will last.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Impeachment is definitely firing up the base and creating some sympathy, though after today's shenanigans at the hearing I doubt it will last.

It's good strategy, honestly. Shouting lies in unison at full volume is about all they have left. The base is looking for any shred of plausible deniability they can get their hands on.

[pbrower2a]

Impeachment is definitely firing up the base and creating some sympathy, though after today's shenanigans at the hearing I doubt it will last.

At this point it is safe to assume that the rational adults have largely abandoned the President. What remains are the fanatical and the crazy. The defense of this President has collapsed into farce. The end is nigh. 

[Badger]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

People who disapprove of Trump are not going to vote for him.

The last election disprove this completely. There will be plenty of voters who disapprove of trump but see him as the lesser of two evils against whatever baby killing socialist the Democrats nominate and a billion dollars worth of negative ads are ultimately run against.

By contrast, individuals who approve of Trump's performance but still vote against him will be negligible in number.

[RJ]

The last election disprove this completely. There will be plenty of voters who disapprove of trump but see him as the lesser of two evils against whatever baby killing socialist the Democrats nominate and a billion dollars worth of negative ads are ultimately run against.

In the key states that got Trump elected the turnout was low. It has been famously said that Trump didn't even reach Bush 04' level support in MI, OH or WI, three states that went his way and several other contested states that didn't.  It stands to reason that many voters who actually witnessed the campaign just didn't show up at the polls rather than actually decide between those two in 2016. I suspect those non participants leaned Democratic.

[TDAS04]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

People who disapprove of Trump are not going to vote for him.

The last election disprove this completely. There will be plenty of voters who disapprove of trump but see him as the lesser of two evils against whatever baby killing socialist the Democrats nominate and a billion dollars worth of negative ads are ultimately run against.

By contrast, individuals who approve of Trump's performance but still vote against him will be negligible in number.

True, but hopefully most people who dislike both candidates will break against the incumbent party, like they did in 2016.  We can't be certain this will be the case, but I have seen polling evidence that people who dislike both Trump and Biden would rather vote for Biden.  In 2016, a lot of people seemed to have thought, "grrr, both candidates suck, might as well vote for Trump to shake things up a bit."

It's certainly true, though, that those who like Trump will vote for him overwhelmingly. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

People who disapprove of Trump are not going to vote for him.

The last election disprove this completely. There will be plenty of voters who disapprove of trump but see him as the lesser of two evils against whatever baby killing socialist the Democrats nominate and a billion dollars worth of negative ads are ultimately run against.

By contrast, individuals who approve of Trump's performance but still vote against him will be negligible in number.

In 2016 Trump did win the "lesser of two evils" contest.  Voters who disapproved of both him and Clinton broke strongly for Trump.  But in those 2020 polls that break things out that far, the opposite is true; voters who disapprove of both Trump and <Democratic name> are breaking strongly against Trump.