Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

People who disapprove of Trump are not going to vote for him.

The last election disprove this completely. There will be plenty of voters who disapprove of trump but see him as the lesser of two evils against whatever baby killing socialist the Democrats nominate and a billion dollars worth of negative ads are ultimately run against.

By contrast, individuals who approve of Trump's performance but still vote against him will be negligible in number.

In 2016 Trump did win the "lesser of two evils" contest.  Voters who disapproved of both him and Clinton broke strongly for Trump.  But in those 2020 polls that break things out that far, the opposite is true; voters who disapprove of both Trump and <Democratic name> are breaking strongly against Trump.

I hope it stays that way because those voters are the ones I dislike and distrust the most.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data Tracker (weekly), Oct. 18-22, 4083 adults including 3447 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 20 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 46 (+3), No 40 (-2)

RV:

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 22 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 48 (+4), No 42 (-1)

[pbrower2a]

Two polls in which I give no credence are from Montana and Wyoming.  Get this -- 40 likely voters (MT) and 14 (WY).

I'm not showing those on the map.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Two polls in which I give no credence are from Montana and Wyoming.  Get this -- 40 likely voters (MT) and 14 (WY).

I'm notshowing those on the map.

I don't know which is worse - that Montana State published those polls, or that 538 is including them in their poll database.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen is at 43/54 today, which is the worst since it was 43/57 on Feb. 1.  The approval number hasn't been lower since it hit 42 a couple of days in Jan. 2018.

The 538 averages for all polls and RV/LV-only polls are also now at their worst levels for Trump since the government shutdown.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Rasmussen is at 43/54 today, which is the worst since it was 43/57 on Feb. 1.  The approval number hasn't been lower since it hit 42 a couple of days in Jan. 2018.

The 538 averages for all polls and RV/LV-only polls are also now at their worst levels for Trump since the government shutdown.

Rasmussen had him at 52/47 before The Phone Call dropped. -9 approve, +7 disapprove. That's pretty brutal but a remarkably small change given it is now considered solid fact that the president attempted to sell out the country for a political favor from a foreign leader.

This is the kind of thing that would drop an ordinary president into Bush 2008 territory.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Rasmussen is at 43/54 today, which is the worst since it was 43/57 on Feb. 1.  The approval number hasn't been lower since it hit 42 a couple of days in Jan. 2018.

The 538 averages for all polls and RV/LV-only polls are also now at their worst levels for Trump since the government shutdown.

Rasmussen had him at 52/47 before The Phone Call dropped. -9 approve, +7 disapprove. That's pretty brutal but a remarkably small change given it is now considered solid fact that the president attempted to sell out the country for a political favor from a foreign leader.

This is the kind of thing that would drop an ordinary president into Bush 2008 territory.

This is what happens when partisans adopt cult like mentalities.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Rasmussen is at 43/54 today, which is the worst since it was 43/57 on Feb. 1.  The approval number hasn't been lower since it hit 42 a couple of days in Jan. 2018.

The 538 averages for all polls and RV/LV-only polls are also now at their worst levels for Trump since the government shutdown.

Rasmussen had him at 52/47 before The Phone Call dropped. -9 approve, +7 disapprove. That's pretty brutal but a remarkably small change given it is now considered solid fact that the president attempted to sell out the country for a political favor from a foreign leader.

This is the kind of thing that would drop an ordinary president into Bush 2008 territory.

This is what happens when partisans adopt cult like mentalities.

I am so looking forward to when the spell is broken and all the people who are praising Trump as savior are blaming him for the GOP's complete dysfunction.

[pbrower2a]

Two polls in which I give no credence are from Montana and Wyoming.  Get this -- 40 likely voters (MT) and 14 (WY).

I'm notshowing those on the map.

I don't know which is worse - that Montana State published those polls, or that 538 is including them in their poll database.

Even if they are accurate they are so only by chance. Montana is far too diverse for such a small sample.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Rasmussen (10/25)

Approve - 43%

• Strongly - 31%

Disapprove - 56%

• Strongly - 46%

NET: -13% (-15% between strongly approve/disapprove)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC News/SurveyMonkey, Oct. 8-22, 18101 RV (change from July)

Approve 44 (-4)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 29 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

Impeach and remove Trump (no prior):

Yes 49
No 49

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politidope/status/1187740595051270144

[Inmate Trump]

Rasmussen is at 43/54 today, which is the worst since it was 43/57 on Feb. 1.  The approval number hasn't been lower since it hit 42 a couple of days in Jan. 2018.

The 538 averages for all polls and RV/LV-only polls are also now at their worst levels for Trump since the government shutdown.

Rasmussen had him at 52/47 before The Phone Call dropped. -9 approve, +7 disapprove. That's pretty brutal but a remarkably small change given it is now considered solid fact that the president attempted to sell out the country for a political favor from a foreign leader.

This is the kind of thing that would drop an ordinary president into Bush 2008 territory.

This is what happens when partisans adopt cult like mentalities.

I am so looking forward to when the spell is broken and all the people who are praising Trump as savior are blaming him for the GOP's complete dysfunction.

“I never liked him,” will be the new thing.  We’ve already seen this with previous failed Republicans.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/Politidope/status/1187740595051270144

This will not be the map for the 2020 election, but it is a nice thought. F***ing Ohio though! I'm also a bit surprised at NE-2.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Politidope/status/1187740595051270144

This will not be the map for the 2020 election, but it is a nice thought. F***ing Ohio though! I'm also a bit surprised at NE-2.

It will be if the Democrats win... or something like it. This or Trump+ME MN NH are the two mostly likely maps at this rate.

[emailking]

It will be if the Democrats win... or something like it. This or Trump+ME MN NH are the two mostly likely maps at this rate.

You think a Dem blowout map or a Trump blowout map are the 2 most maps likely at this point, vs. say one of them with a state flipped. 🤔

[Person Man]

It will be if the Democrats win... or something like it. This or Trump+ME MN NH are the two mostly likely maps at this rate.

You think a Dem blowout map or a Trump blowout map are the 2 most maps likely at this point, vs. say one of them with a state flipped. 🤔

Maybe the Trump scenario but with Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania flipped if he improves by as much as W or Bill did. The Democrats will limit the EV gain by campaigning better. Look at what Kerry did compared to W. With Kerry's 2PPV share, Gore would have done about as well as Hillary or Romney did.

I don't think a Democrat will win a close election.

[Badger]

If Trump pulls within 2% of his Democratic rival down from today's 10% gap, it means that most of the Trump '16 voters came home and more. It would probably be logical to assume that any close election favors him in the Electoral College and more pertinently, Presidents who retain their coalitions often get re-elected.

Carter and Bush lost huge swaths of their people from '76 and '88 and lost. W retained most of his 2000 voters and won re-election, as did Obama 2012 (going from 53% to 51%).

W actually improved on his 2000 percentage notably, by nearly 3% Nationwide, where has Carrie actually dropped slightly from Gores percentage, thus enabling  W to squeak out a narrow electoral victory

[pbrower2a]

If Trump pulls within 2% of his Democratic rival down from today's 10% gap, it means that most of the Trump '16 voters came home and more. It would probably be logical to assume that any close election favors him in the Electoral College and more pertinently, Presidents who retain their coalitions often get re-elected.

Carter and Bush lost huge swaths of their people from '76 and '88 and lost. W retained most of his 2000 voters and won re-election, as did Obama 2012 (going from 53% to 51%).

...and if cats had wings they would fly.

[Person Man]

If Trump pulls within 2% of his Democratic rival down from today's 10% gap, it means that most of the Trump '16 voters came home and more. It would probably be logical to assume that any close election favors him in the Electoral College and more pertinently, Presidents who retain their coalitions often get re-elected.

Carter and Bush lost huge swaths of their people from '76 and '88 and lost. W retained most of his 2000 voters and won re-election, as did Obama 2012 (going from 53% to 51%).

W actually improved on his 2000 percentage notably, by nearly 3% Nationwide, where has Carrie actually dropped slightly from Gores percentage, thus enabling  W to squeak out a narrow electoral victory

Which was a real feat given that the economy was sluggish, the war was starting to drag out, and Nader didn’t win millions of votes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Grinnell College/Selzer (national poll), Oct. 17-23, 1003 adults

Approve 40
Disapprove 50

Their last national poll was apparently in Nov. 2018.  Trump's approval was 43/45.

Since he took office in January of 2017, would you describe your feelings for President Trump as becoming a lot more favorable, a little more favorable, a little more unfavorable, or a lot more unfavorable?

A lot more favorable 23
A little more favorable 15
A little more unfavorable 13
A lot more unfavorable 43
(Net: more favorable 38, more unfavorable 56)

Approve of impeachment inquiry? Yes 48, No 42

Remove Trump? Yes 42, No 44

Is it OK for political candidates in the U.S. to ask for assistance from a foreign
government to help them win an election?

OK 7
Not OK 81

Among likely voters (n=806):

Definitely vote to re-elect Trump 38
Consider someone else 13
Definitely someone else 47

[Gass3268]

Grinnell College/Selzer (national poll), Oct. 17-23, 1003 adults

Approve 40
Disapprove 50

Their last national poll was apparently in Nov. 2018.  Trump's approval was 43/45.

Since he took office in January of 2017, would you describe your feelings for President Trump as becoming a lot more favorable, a little more favorable, a little more unfavorable, or a lot more unfavorable?

A lot more favorable 23
A little more favorable 15
A little more unfavorable 13
A lot more unfavorable 43
(Net: more favorable 38, more unfavorable 56)

Approve of impeachment inquiry? Yes 48, No 42

Remove Trump? Yes 42, No 44

Is it OK for political candidates in the U.S. to ask for assistance from a foreign
government to help them win an election?

OK 7
Not OK 81

Among likely voters (n=806):

Definitely vote to re-elect Trump 38
Consider someone else 13
Definitely someone else 47

This is a Trump +4 sample too.

[Badger]

If Trump pulls within 2% of his Democratic rival down from today's 10% gap, it means that most of the Trump '16 voters came home and more. It would probably be logical to assume that any close election favors him in the Electoral College and more pertinently, Presidents who retain their coalitions often get re-elected.

Carter and Bush lost huge swaths of their people from '76 and '88 and lost. W retained most of his 2000 voters and won re-election, as did Obama 2012 (going from 53% to 51%).

...and if cats had wings they would fly.

You know, if a Republican wins next November you are going to have massive egg on your face.

This "Republicans can't win" meme is silly.  Republicans do win - a lot.

At the risk of sounding like a temple typical pessimistic leftist, I'm not sure Republicans are as good as winning close elections as Democrats are at losing them.

[pbrower2a]

If Trump pulls within 2% of his Democratic rival down from today's 10% gap, it means that most of the Trump '16 voters came home and more. It would probably be logical to assume that any close election favors him in the Electoral College and more pertinently, Presidents who retain their coalitions often get re-elected.

Carter and Bush lost huge swaths of their people from '76 and '88 and lost. W retained most of his 2000 voters and won re-election, as did Obama 2012 (going from 53% to 51%).

...and if cats had wings they would fly.

You know, if a Republican wins next November you are going to have massive egg on your face.

This "Republicans can't win" meme is silly.  Republicans do win - a lot.

A Republican win of the Electoral College would indicate only one thing -- that much has changed that nobody can now foresee.

Some of my analysis from two months ago:

1. No administration has generated so many jailbirds so quickly. Obama -- none.
2. This may depend on how one sees things. Mueller testimony is what is in the statement, and Democrats are willing to make broader interpretations. The legal definitions of statutory offenses are not to be toyed with.
3. The advantages of incumbency are for those who handle it well.
4. Good economy? People are taking it for granted, and it has gotten shaky. The inverted yield curve and market volatility may contradict you.
5. I try to keep my "Trump is awful" opinion out of analysis. The polls suggest big trouble for him that the three last Presidents did not have. He is way behind Clinton, Dubya, and Obama at the same analogous time -- consistently.

He is not in the range of easily winning the states that he must win. If a Presidential election is basically fifty gubernatorial or Senate elections, five House elections (three districts in Nebraska and two in Maine), and one mayoral election (DC, which has neither a Governor nor a Senator but does have an elected mayor), Trump is way behind where he needs to be at the start of an electoral season. To have a 50% chance of win a state (Nate Silver, the Myth of 50%), an incumbent needs to have a start with a 43.5% share of the electoral support on the assumption that he will get the other 6.5% share in a binary election through a competent and spirited campaign. The chance of winning rises quickly to near unity with numbers above 43.5% and drops quickly to near zero with numbers below 43.5%. Trump won in 2016, so I will grant him that. Of course, most Presidential nominees are current or former Governors or Senators.

Not one vote from 2016 will be cast in 2020.  It will all be new votes.

So what would a Trump win be like? 2016 was close -- but Trump has not kept his close losses close. He is flipping nothing from Hillary Clinton, and he must avoid losing Florida and anything, or any combination of  of Michigan, Pennsylvania and anything. Approval numbers for this President are abysmal.  

This is before the disclosure of the directive to divert Air Force jets to a Trump resort to refuel their and disgorge airmen to stay at a Trump resort for lack of alternatives, before the revelation that the President sought dirt on the son of what was then the most likely challenge to his Presidency, and before the cowardly abandonment of the Kurds in Syria. The first two are impeachable, and the third is even more objectionable. This President has offended federal law enforcement, the Armed Services, and the CIA... contrast Barack Obama, who might not have been the first choice of those three legs of national security but in practice did nothing objectionable.

Impeachment hearings are nigh. Although in my pessimism about the GOP I expect the Senate to not convict and remove him, the electorate can exercise its own scheduled impeachment of him a little more than a year from now.  Among single-issue voters are those who have national security as a focus, and they usually vote for Republicans. Trump may have lost a big chunk of this vote. Note also that Americans are getting to know this President a little more each day unless they choose to shut him out. Those who have already shut him out have given up on him.  The Trump administration is chaotic in ways that we never saw in Jimmy Carter, who had few personal vices as President. Add to this, Americans are hostile to corruption in political life. Politicians in supposedly safe seats can lose even in wave elections favoring their Party.

But even without the corruption, chaos, and overall incompetence one factor intervenes. The bulk of new voters is coming from the Millennial Generation. Figuring charitably that people typically have about sixty years as voters,  about 1.6% of the electorate drops out every year, mostly by dropping dead or going senile. Such involves largely the older half of the electorate, typically between the ages of 55 and 85. If voters between ages 55 and 85 have been voting about 55-45 R, voters under 40 have been voting about 65-35 D nationwide.  So about 6.4% of the electorate gets replaced by newer voters largely under 40 every year, which means about a 2.5% shift of the electorate from R to D. If you wish to see some evidence of such a change, then look to the contrast between the 2014 and 2018 midterm election. The Tea Party voters, had they not died off or gone senile, still voted in 2018... but America also got a huge infusion of younger voters from 2014. To be sure, the 2018 midterm election may also have been a referendum for many purposes on the Trump Presidency, with voters taking it out on Trump.

Maybe something will happen that rescues President Trump and the GOP from what looks like another wave-like defeat, this one costing the Republicans the Senate. The biggest question with the Senate will be whether it votes to convict and remove the President. If it chooses to not do so, then such will not look good for incumbent Republican Senators, especially if the vote to not convict and remove the President comes as some procedural ruse. As James Randi puts it, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. I have seen one Presidency fail catastrophically in my lifetime due to the moral inadequacy of the President and another fall for chaotic bungling; Trump is far more immoral than Richard Nixon, and is far more chaotic than that of Jimmy Carter. At this point the null hypothesis is that Donald Trump has mostly done things that preclude re-election and is unlikely to do something to save his spot as President.    

[GeorgiaModerate]

All of that is true but I can provide a counterpoint. Moody's model says the GOP would win big and voters tend to vote on their pocketbook.

Also your assumption is that Donald Trump is the GOP nominee, which I do not share. And yes Democrats tend to lose elections more than not so that's also a live variableThere's a lot of evidence for the assertation that Trump may be the problem in the eyes of voters, not the Republican platform and line.

This is more true when the economy is bad, because then it's on voters' minds.  But when the economy is good, other factors gain more importance to most voters.  A bad economy hurts the incumbent more than a good economy will help them.