Trump approval ratings thread 1.5
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #1125 on: November 06, 2019, 02:39:15 PM »

Sometimes I think the people on this forum dont really care about polling.

I think it's more a case that many of them don't understand what polling can and can't tell you, and this causes them to either have too much faith in polls or not enough.
Spot on.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #1126 on: November 06, 2019, 03:46:59 PM »

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

November 9, 2016:
"My fellow Americans, I'm very humbled, so humbled to have won the election. Nobody is as humble as me. Believe me. Not a lot of people know this, but you can win an election when the other person gets more votes nationwide. But that's not how our Constitution works, people. Not how it works. Nobody knows more about the Constitution than me. Believe me. Now, I know there are a lot of people, really fine people, who voted for Hillary Clinton. Such a fine candidate, such a great campaign. And maybe I'm not their first choice. But I promise to be the President for everyone, whether you voted for me or not. I even promise to be the best President to all the haters and losers. *grin and wink*"

And so on. And maybe he tries not to use the Presidency for personal gain, not to insist the Justice Department be loyal to him alone, not to fire or drive out every competent advisor in his cabinet, to actually listen to said advisors, to comport himself in the manner of a world leader, to stay off of Twitter, and to take the investigation into Russian meddling seriously.

That President Trump would win in 2020. Easily.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #1127 on: November 06, 2019, 03:49:35 PM »

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

 It also didn't help that Trump then ran with a baseless conspiracy that he actually won the popular vote because 3 million non-citizens or "illegals" as he calls them voted.

 But we just gloss over that because Trump.

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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #1128 on: November 06, 2019, 03:58:45 PM »

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

 It also didn't help that Trump then ran with a baseless conspiracy that he actually won the popular vote because 3 million non-citizens or "illegals" as he calls them voted.

 But we just gloss over that because Trump.



He has spent 3 years painting everyone not aligned with him as a hater, loser, traitor, Very Unfair!, dishonest, etc. There was no reason to do so, politically. If he can shoot a guy on Fifth Avenue and not lose support, he can treat his political enemies with respect and dignity and not lose support. But Trump be Trump, and he goes out of his way to polarize people and antagonize anyone who has any reason to dislike or oppose him on anything.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1129 on: November 06, 2019, 06:52:14 PM »

Ipsos Core Political tracker (weekly), Nov. 4-5, 1114 adults including 944 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 20 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 45 (-2), No 41 (nc)

RV:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 47 (-1), No 41 (-1)

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #1130 on: November 06, 2019, 08:21:38 PM »

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

 It also didn't help that Trump then ran with a baseless conspiracy that he actually won the popular vote because 3 million non-citizens or "illegals" as he calls them voted.

But we just gloss over that because Trump.



It's nearly impossible to mentally retain all the horrible things he has said or done.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #1131 on: November 06, 2019, 09:08:19 PM »

Ipsos Core Political tracker (weekly), Nov. 4-5, 1114 adults including 944 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 20 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 45 (-2), No 41 (nc)

RV:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 47 (-1), No 41 (-1)



Looks like those public hearings are coming just in time.

Grab the popcorn, everybody.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1132 on: November 07, 2019, 12:20:23 AM »

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

 It also didn't help that Trump then ran with a baseless conspiracy that he actually won the popular vote because 3 million non-citizens or "illegals" as he calls them voted.

But we just gloss over that because Trump.



It's nearly impossible to mentally retain all the horrible things he has said or done.

He obviously can win with nearly a 3 million loss in the popular vote. He did. An even shift of 1% of the popular vote will send him down to defeat, though.  Obviously it will not be an even swing; such never happens. Democrats may have maxed out in some states (CA, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, and VT).

I am not going to say how the impeachment affects the 2020 vote.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1133 on: November 07, 2019, 09:30:30 AM »

Kaiser Family Foundation "Blue Wall Voices" project, Sep. 23-Oct. 15, 3222 RV in four states.


Michigan (n=767):

Approve 41 (strongly 24)
Disapprove 58 (strongly 49)


Minnesota (n=958):

Approve 42 (strongly 24)
Disapprove 58 (strongly 48)


Pennsylvania (n=752):

Approve 39 (strongly 26)
Disapprove 61 (strongly 51)


Wisconsin (n=745):

Approve 42 (strongly 26)
Disapprove 57 (strongly 49)


Lots of good issue questions in this poll too.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #1134 on: November 07, 2019, 11:09:28 AM »

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

 It also didn't help that Trump then ran with a baseless conspiracy that he actually won the popular vote because 3 million non-citizens or "illegals" as he calls them voted.

But we just gloss over that because Trump.



It's nearly impossible to mentally retain all the horrible things he has said or done.

He obviously can win with nearly a 3 million loss in the popular vote. He did. An even shift of 1% of the popular vote will send him down to defeat, though.  Obviously it will not be an even swing; such never happens. Democrats may have maxed out in some states (CA, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, and VT).

I am not going to say how the impeachment affects the 2020 vote.

I'm not sure about that assertion. They failed to break 60% in half of those states in 2016. Blue State America now basically holds a daily Two Minutes Hate for Trump, and collective psychology may drive more people to polls.

"Voting booth selfie! #DumpTrump #NotThisTime"
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1135 on: November 07, 2019, 12:33:32 PM »


See username
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1136 on: November 07, 2019, 12:34:49 PM »

Kaiser Family Foundation "Blue Wall Voices" project, Sep. 23-Oct. 15, 3222 RV in four states.


Michigan (n=767):

Approve 41 (strongly 24)
Disapprove 58 (strongly 49)


Minnesota (n=958):

Approve 42 (strongly 24)
Disapprove 58 (strongly 48)


Pennsylvania (n=752):

Approve 39 (strongly 26)
Disapprove 61 (strongly 51)


Wisconsin (n=745):

Approve 42 (strongly 26)
Disapprove 57 (strongly 49)


Lots of good issue questions in this poll too.


Trump re-election bid, 2020: dead in the water with a swarm of tiger sharks.



If Texas is in doubt for the 2020 election, then Democratic chances for winning the Presidency are very, very good. This poll replaces an old one that I did not fully believe. Essentially it is a tie, but any lead for either a Democrat or a Republican gets some hue.



Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher




[/quote]
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #1137 on: November 07, 2019, 06:17:48 PM »

Back to the mid 40s lol  (RCP AVG at 43.5% - with a couple outliers at 39% about to be edged out).

These threads are a joke, wishcasting Trump’s demise.

538's average, which uses a better technique, has Trump approval at 41.4/54.6.  But keep relying on RCP's simplistic average if it makes you feel better.

So simplistic that RCP got 2016 closer than the egotistical Nate’s 538. Right.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate calls the 2008 election (easiest to call) and he’s seen as a god. He ducks up the 2016 election it’s all deflection “well no he didn’t predict per se he was giving the odds and 30% chance isn’t 0 blah blah blah”.....You can’t have it both ways, if he gets praised when he gets it right, he bears responsibility when he does indeed get it wrong.


RCP:
Clinton: 45.5%
Trump: 42.2%

538:
Clinton: 48.5%%
Trump: 44.9%%

Reality:
Clinton: 48.18%
Trump: 46.09%
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1138 on: November 08, 2019, 01:07:24 AM »

Back to the mid 40s lol  (RCP AVG at 43.5% - with a couple outliers at 39% about to be edged out).

These threads are a joke, wishcasting Trump’s demise.

538's average, which uses a better technique, has Trump approval at 41.4/54.6.  But keep relying on RCP's simplistic average if it makes you feel better.

So simplistic that RCP got 2016 closer than the egotistical Nate’s 538. Right.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate calls the 2008 election (easiest to call) and he’s seen as a god. He ducks up the 2016 election it’s all deflection “well no he didn’t predict per se he was giving the odds and 30% chance isn’t 0 blah blah blah”.....You can’t have it both ways, if he gets praised when he gets it right, he bears responsibility when he does indeed get it wrong.

He called every state correctly in 2012, something you had trouble doing:
Quote
How does one even believe the nonsense Obama spouts now? What he's spouting now is almost identical to 2008, and I doubt many would disagree that his last 4 years have failed. So why should anyone even believe his nonsense now? His record is so poor, he can barely run on it.

Goodbye, Barack.

Whereas Mitt is exploiting that all over tonight. Obama knows he's in trouble, and is treading water here. He may be treading well, but his water wings are still on, but losing air.....
Quote
Irrelevant. Obama lost because his record is abysmal. End of, really. Romney now has the momentum because of that, and he's continued that theme, even if Obama speaks more smoothly.

Election is over. Mitt will be the next president.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #1139 on: November 08, 2019, 09:59:17 AM »

Here come the crayons on the Morning Consult polls of September. This is the last set of polls in the pre-impeachment time. The impeachment begins with even one formal charge.




Net approval for the President

+10 or higher  -10 or higher
+5 to +9%        -5 to -9%
+1 to +4          -1 to -4

exact tie in white

It is at +4 in Arkansas, so that is no misprint... Trump is at +1 in both Dakotas, and -2 in Nebraska. I'm guessing that the trade wars hurt American farmers. Arkansas grows much rice...  


October ratings have dropped!

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1140 on: November 08, 2019, 10:17:43 AM »

Trump is deeper underwater in IA than VA? Weird. The trade war?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1141 on: November 08, 2019, 11:21:50 AM »

Trump is deeper underwater in IA than VA? Weird. The trade war?

It's been that way for almost the entirty of Trump's presidency. I'd say it's just a fluke in their polling. MC, however, is not the only pollster to show Trump pretty underwater in Iowa.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #1142 on: November 08, 2019, 12:52:14 PM »

Trump is deeper underwater in IA than VA? Weird. The trade war?

It's been that way for almost the entirty of Trump's presidency. I'd say it's just a fluke in their polling. MC, however, is not the only pollster to show Trump pretty underwater in Iowa.

I've never understood those VA numbers.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1143 on: February 28, 2020, 09:18:40 PM »

New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=361619.0
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