Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Politician]

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&trendline=true&map=true

This one looks pretty good overall although probably has the same underestimate WWC support for Trump and overestimate Hispanic support for Trump outside FL.

GA: Trump -7
VA: Trump -20
CO: Trump -18
ME: Trump -25 (!!!)
NH: Trump -21

No way Trump has a positive approval rating in Ohio with those type of numbers in other states.

[Thatkat04]

ABC/WaPo, April 22-25, 1001 adults (previous poll in late Jan.)


Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-4)

Thats frustrating. But these numbers seems to give merit to the theory that Mueller and Russia are already built into Trump's numbers.

Well, the prior poll was in the middle of the shutdown, which was a period when Trump's numbers were generally awful.  The two before that were 40/53 (Nov.) and 41/54 (Oct.)

That makes it even more frustrating. But yeah, it starting to look like right after the Barr summary. Its not that people dont care, its just that this scandal has been going on for so long that everyone has already formed an opinion. Thats why the economy is growing by 3% yet hes still underwater by double digits.

[pbrower2a]

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&trendline=true&map=true

This one looks pretty good overall although probably has the same underestimate WWC support for Trump and overestimate Hispanic support for Trump outside FL.

Caveats:

1. It is over three months. Most statewide polls are over much-shorter times, so I can't relate these results to statewide polls over a weekend -- which is most of what I have, or even the month-long polling of Morning Consult.

2. Two national polls already show Trump support undergoing significant drops following the release of the  Mueller report. See below. Although there were apparently no statewide polls taken in the weekend following the release of the redacted report, there will be such reports. Even the three polling results that I have for the three narrowest Trump wins of 2016 (and these come from an internal poll for the Bernie Sanders campaign), the last three that I have gotten, are from before the Mueller Report exposing the ethical cesspool of the Trump campaign of 2016.

3. We can expect some systematic faults of sampling by any pollster on populations  that will distort results. The question about such remains: who has the faults, and which ones are significant?

We can go with the argument "but this pollster got this election right to an extent that someone else did not get so right". Such implies a difference in modeling of any election. Trump obviously wins re-election with an electorate like those of 2010 or 2014, and obviously loses with an electorate of 2006, 2008, 2012, or 2018. 2016? Which way is the wind blowing? Who can say what sort of electorate we will have?  

Concurrences:

1. This is the same pollster in all fifty states. It is apples to apples, oranges to oranges.

2. Trump polling has been remarkably stable, at least until the release of the Mueller Report.

3. We get to see results from states that don't get polled often.

4. This could be a contrast to what we see in the last week of April and from early May. I am not predicting polling results as the result of events, even if the Mueller Report is a huge event.

From this collection of data exclusively (except that I am guessing that Trump has no chance to win Dee Cee):

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

Note that I am changing my format here. I cannot see the President winning any state in which his disapproval is over 51%. If Obama could not win in 2012 in any state in which is disapproval rating ever got above 51%, then how could Trump barring some huge positive event? Obama is as slick and competent a campaigner and political strategist as we have seen in decades, and to get re-elected he had to be that slick and competent. At this I in practice give Trump much leeway. I must -- you know my bias. I thoroughly loathe him, and I thought Obama a fine President.

But this said, any state in maroon is practically certain to give Trump a double-digit loss, and any state in red has a high likelihood of giving him at the least a high-single-digit loss. States in pink or the one in white will be the ones to watch. Nothing is in light blue, so there is no state in which he is up 49-47 or so, but it is worth noting that Trump approval is at 50% in Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas... and at a mere 51% in Indiana.

So what about Indiana? Since the 1920s, no Republican nominee for President has won nationwide without winning Indiana by a double-digit margin. Even in the two elections in which the Republican won the electoral college without winning a plurality of the vote, the winning Republican (Dubya in 2000 and Trump in 2016) the Republican won the state by a double-digit margin. The disapproval number is just too high and the approval number is just too low  to offer the state as a ten-point win for Trump in 2020.  Indiana does not seem to be drifting Democratic, and it is not as if Indiana will be making voting easier to the benefit of Hoosier Democrats (mail-in or early voting). If you are a Democrat and hear at 7 PM that Trump has a 53-46 win in Indiana, you can consider that a very good sign.
 
How good do I think Obama was? Basically, the next effective conservative President will behave much more like Obama than like Trump and will also be a chilly rationalist with similar acumen. Someone with the political skills of Reagan and the temperament of Eisenhower is a good President. Conservatives who want tax cuts, regulatory relief that outlasts the president, and an economic order that puts more responsibility on the common man to create wealth instead of blowing it will be better off with a conservative version of Barack Obama than with another Donald Trump Add to this -- contrast Obama to Trump on foreign policy, and Obama is the conservative with a mailed fist under the velvet glove, which is the right way for dealing with ISIS, North Korea, and perhaps Iran.  



I may prefer this polling data for my start in 1.5. We are running out of available posts in 1.4.

(I corrected some coloring).

[pbrower2a]

ABC/WaPo, April 22-25, 1001 adults (previous poll in late Jan.)


Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-4)

Thats frustrating. But these numbers seems to give merit to the theory that Mueller and Russia are already built into Trump's numbers.

Well, the prior poll was in the middle of the shutdown, which was a period when Trump's numbers were generally awful.  The two before that were 40/53 (Nov.) and 41/54 (Oct.)

Thank you for the reminder.


39% approval and 45% strong disapproval are still horrid numbers. WaPo has nothing from February, March, or early-to-middle April. Trump polling was awful during the shutdown.

The Mueller Report isn't going away, and I cannot think of anything under reaction that could clear the President. I can only imagine that what lies behind redactions for "Ongoing investigation" and "Grand jury" will not be good news for Trump. The FBI does not have the resources for wild-goose chases. 

[pbrower2a]

Here is 'my' starting point for the 2020 Presidential election based upon polling from January to the middle of April with a map of statewide approvals before the release of the Mueller report in its first, redacted version. I do not expect the next redacted version to bring any improvement to the prospects for re-election of the President.

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&trendline=true&map=true

This one looks pretty good overall although probably has the same underestimate WWC support for Trump and overestimate Hispanic support for Trump outside FL.

Caveats:

1. It is over three months. Most statewide polls are over much-shorter times, so I can't relate these results to statewide polls over a weekend -- which is most of what I have, or even the month-long polling of Morning Consult.

2. Two national polls already show Trump support undergoing significant drops following the release of the  Mueller report. See below. Although there were apparently no statewide polls taken in the weekend following the release of the redacted report, there will be such reports. Even the three polling results that I have for the three narrowest Trump wins of 2016 (and these come from an internal poll for the Bernie Sanders campaign), the last three that I have gotten, are from before the Mueller Report exposing the ethical cesspool of the Trump campaign of 2016.

3. We can expect some systematic faults of sampling by any pollster on populations  that will distort results. The question about such remains: who has the faults, and which ones are significant?

We can go with the argument "but this pollster got this election right to an extent that someone else did not get so right". Such implies a difference in modeling of any election. Trump obviously wins re-election with an electorate like those of 2010 or 2014, and obviously loses with an electorate of 2006, 2008, 2012, or 2018. 2016? Which way is the wind blowing? Who can say what sort of electorate we will have? 

Concurrences:

1. This is the same pollster in all fifty states. It is apples to apples, oranges to oranges.

2. Trump polling has been remarkably stable, at least until the release of the Mueller Report.

3. We get to see results from states that don't get polled often.

4. This could be a contrast to what we see in the last week of April and from early May. I am not predicting polling results as the result of events, even if the Mueller Report is a huge event.

From this collection of data exclusively (except that I am guessing that Trump has no chance to win Dee Cee):

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

Note that I am changing my format here. I cannot see the President winning any state in which his disapproval is over 51%. If Obama could not win in 2012 in any state in which is disapproval rating ever got above 51%, then how could Trump barring some huge positive event? Obama is as slick and competent a campaigner and political strategist as we have seen in decades, and to get re-elected he had to be that slick and competent. At this I in practice give Trump much leeway. I must -- you know my bias. I thoroughly loathe him, and I thought Obama a fine President.

But this said, any state in maroon is practically certain to give Trump a double-digit loss, and any state in red has a high likelihood of giving him at the least a high-double-digit loss. States in pink or the one in white will be the ones to watch. Nothing is in light blue, so there is no state in which he is up 49-47 or so, but it is worth noting that Trump approval is at 50% in Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas... and at a mere 51% in Indiana.

So what about Indiana? Since the 1920s, no Republican nominee for President has won nationwide without winning Indiana by a double-digit margin. Even in the two elections in which the Republican won the electoral college without winning a plurality of the vote, the winning Republican (Dubya in 2000 and Trump in 2016) the Republican won the state by a double-digit margin. The disapproval number is just too high and the approval number is just too low  to offer the state as a ten-point win for Trump in 2020.  Indiana does not seem to be drifting Democratic, and it is not as if Indiana will be making voting easier to the benefit of Hoosier Democrats (mail-in or early voting). If you are a Democrat and hear at 7 PM that Trump has a 53-46 win in Indiana, you can consider that a very good sign.

[pbrower2a]

To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

8% or higher margin against Trump -- maroon
4-7.9% against Trump -- medium red
under 4% margin against Trump -- pink

I have yet to see exact ties or 'better' for Trump.   

[pbrower2a]

First update of statewide polling, with the first poll of a state after the release of the Mueller Report.

PPP, Wisconsin, and the focus is on healthcare. No mention is made of anything in the Mueller Report. It is a poll for an advocacy group, but these are the first two questions:

Performance: approve of Trump 44%, disapprove 54%
Trump 43%, Democrat 53%

then, trust on medical coverage  Trump 42%, Democrats 52%


https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/WisconsinFinal.pdf

Trump is not winning Wisconsin with these numbers!

The Trump or not shade does not change.

Ohio -- Northern Ohio University.

This could be an outlier -- but note that it comes from before the release of the Mueller Report, April 5-10.

The words used to describe approval and disapproval are "satisfied" and "dissatisfied", which is a passive way of expressing approval and disapproval. 

Satisfied 35%, neutral 15%, dissatisfied 50%.

Trump wins if he gets all of the "neutral", but getting the whole of 15%  is practically impossible.

...60% of the potential electorate is excited or very excited about voting in the 2020 Presidential election.  30% are neutral, and only 8% are unexcited or strongly unexcited.

OK, the level of excitement should help the President if they want to vote for him.

But -- "A Democrat" gets only 41% of the likely vote, but Trump struggles at this point to get 34% of the Ohio electorate  voting for him.

This suggests that Ohio will be close, and if I were predicting Ohio in 2020, I would see it as close with the Democrat getting a slight edge.

Ohio is in the unstable zone between 295 and 375 electoral votes for the Democrat. Results in electoral votes do not cluster around the mean win for successful Presidential nominees around 62% of the electoral vote (which is about what Obama did in 2016).

I can't really express this on either map. There are just too many people on the bubble -- and this poll is 20-some days old.

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

Well, whadd'ya think? I have already posted the first statewide poll  after the release of the Mueller Report on "1.5". It is PPP, Wisconsin, and basically, Trump faces numbers that suggests that Wiscinsin is for him at best on the fringe of contention.

I suggest that you start making the transition to '1.5'. Move your favorite posts soon, because when this thread closes such will be difficult.   

I now welcome comments in 1.5.  The timing is mere coincidence. "1.4" will be closed in perhaps a week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1122111857777631232

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1122111857777631232

Trump is so lucky that he has a polarized electorate. If that wasn't the case, he'd be dead on arrival.

[pbrower2a]

Except for Nixon (2%), Ford (1%), and  Reagan (3%), none of them surpassed his approval rating in the subsequent election. Each of these did so by a small amount.

I predict that Trump will surpass his current approval rating as a percentage of the popular vote, but not by much -- and far less than enough with which to get re-elected.

It is not that I disagree with President Trump; he has simply done so much so wrong that it would all be inexcusable if I agreed with him.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1122111857777631232

trump at the bottom?
Shocked I tell you. Just shocked.

[pbrower2a]

Ford, second-from the lowest, was closer to Reagan and Obama in approval at analogous times, than to Trump. Reagan was a near-great President if one is a conservative and Obama is a near-great President if one is a liberal. Ford lacked the political savvy of Obama and Reagan, which reflects that most Presidents have been either Senators or State governors before becoming President. Obama and Reagan had similar political skills but used them for different objectives.

Obviously, Gerald Ford was a far more decent person than Donald Trump, which matters greatly. It is impossible to be a good President if one is a heel as is Trump. Hey, admit it, everyone, no matter what your ideology -- Donald Trump is a heel. His behavior would be abominable if he expressed boilerplate liberalism at every turn.

The ancient Greek poet Heraclitus formulated, and the late Senator John McCain much more recently seconded, the simplest quip about human nature: character is destiny.  Good families and good schools ideally foster character which implies the ability to choose kindness over revenge, integrity over convenience, service over indulgence, and caution over impulse. None of this is easy, but such is essential in an effective leader in any endeavor. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: Emerson, April 25-28, 799 RC

Approve 46
Disapprove 44

Biden 50, Trump 49
O'Rourke 50, Trump 50
Trump 51, Sanders 49
Trump 53, Warren 47
Truamp 54, Harris 46
Trump 54, Buttigieg 46

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1122111857777631232

But that includes all polls since the term start? Because Obama wasn't at 55% in late April 2011. Operation Neptune Spear got him back into a net positive approval that lasted to July/August. Still terrible for Drumpf.

[pbrower2a]

Texas, Emerson:

President Trump has a 46% approval/44% disapproval in Texas. However, he remains popular within his party, leading Republican opponent former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld 87% to 13%. (n=344, +/-5.3%). This is consistent with other Emerson polls conducted in different states over the past several months.

 

Head to Heads:

In general election matchups, Trump is in statistical dead heats with four of the top six Democratic opponents, and leads the other two. In a Donald Trump versus Joe Biden matchup, the two are almost exactly even at 50% for Biden and 49% for Trump. Beto O’Rourke versus Trump is very similar, with 50% going to Beto and 50% supporting Trump. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the other Democrats within the margin, with Trump receiving 51% to Sanders’ 49% and Trump leading Warren 53% to 47%. The rest fall outside of the margin, with Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg each receiving 46% support to Trump’s 54%.

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/04/28/2020-texas-biden-and-beto-in-dead-heat-in-democratic-primary/

As if I have not said this numerous times, Texas has typically straddled 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee. Unless Ohio has become more R than Texas (in which case Texas is close to being 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee, such remains so as it has been since the 1990s.

President Trump has not solidified adequate support in Texas to ensure himself of winning the state in 2020 in the general election.

President Trump has a 46% approval/44% disapproval in Texas. However, he remains popular within his party, leading Republican opponent former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld 87% to 13%. (n=344, +/-5.3%). This is consistent with other Emerson polls conducted in different states over the past several months.

Head to Heads:

In general election matchups, Trump is in statistical dead heats with four of the top six Democratic opponents, and leads the other two. In a Donald Trump versus Joe Biden matchup, the two are almost exactly even at 50% for Biden and 49% for Trump. Beto O’Rourke versus Trump is very similar, with 50% going to Beto and 50% supporting Trump. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the other Democrats within the margin, with Trump receiving 51% to Sanders’ 49% and Trump leading Warren 53% to 47%. The rest fall outside of the margin, with Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg each receiving 46% support to Trump’s 54%.

 

Sure, it is Emerson, but if Trump has mixed results against the various potential Democratic nominees in a state that he absolutely must win to have any chance and that indicates a landslide win for a Democratic nominee, then he is in a bad position. 

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1122111857777631232

But that includes all polls since the term start? Because Obama wasn't at 55% in late April 2011. Operation Neptune Spear got him back into a net positive approval that lasted to July/August. Still terrible for Drumpf.

It's the average of all polls to date in a President's term, yeah.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Hampshire: Suffolk, April 25-28, 800 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: Suffolk, April 25-28, 800 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

It is favorability and non-favorability. There is also a question of how the Democrat (whoever wins) will fare against Trump, and a 43-40 split  is worthless. (More attention was given to Elizabeth Warren, and that may have given many the heebie-jeebies about such a split. She is an unusually weak candidate for President, as shown in the polling. As you will notice I am already putting polling results on "1.5". Eighteen more posts, max, on this thread. Such is the choice of the people at the Atlas.

[pbrower2a]

Technically this is favorability, and not approval so I cannot really put it on the polling map.

https://www2.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2019/04/29/read-full-results-suffolk-university-boston-globe-poll/WAyevf7yhzt1wUWcZKywQL/story.html

Favorability of Donald Trump, 41-53

Trump vs. the unidentified Democratic nominee -- 40-43, with a huge number of undecided... not usable.

No change in the maps.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Technically this is favorability, and not approval so I cannot really put it on the polling map.

https://www2.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2019/04/29/read-full-results-suffolk-university-boston-globe-poll/WAyevf7yhzt1wUWcZKywQL/story.html

Favorability of Donald Trump, 41-53

Trump vs. the unidentified Democratic nominee -- 40-43, with a huge number of undecided... not usable.

No change in the maps.

It has both.  Question 7 is Trump approval, question 8 is Trump favorability.  Both round to 41/53, although they were slightly different at more decimal places (approval 40.63/53.38, favorability 41.13/53.50).

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Hampshire: Suffolk, April 25-28, 800 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

It is favorability and non-favorability. There is also a question of how the Democrat (whoever wins) will fare against Trump, and a 43-40 split  is worthless. (More attention was given to Elizabeth Warren, and that may have given many the heebie-jeebies about such a split. She is an unusually weak candidate for President, as shown in the polling. As you will notice I am already putting polling results on "1.5". Eighteen more posts, max, on this thread. Such is the choice of the people at the Atlas.

Look closer.  As I mentioned in the other polling thread, this poll has both approval and favorability (and both round to 41/53).  Question 7 is approval.  Question 8 is favorability.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: Suffolk, April 25-28, 800 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

It is favorability and non-favorability. There is also a question of how the Democrat (whoever wins) will fare against Trump, and a 43-40 split  is worthless. (More attention was given to Elizabeth Warren, and that may have given many the heebie-jeebies about such a split. She is an unusually weak candidate for President, as shown in the polling. As you will notice I am already putting polling results on "1.5". Eighteen more posts, max, on this thread. Such is the choice of the people at the Atlas.

Look closer.  As I mentioned in the other polling thread, this poll has both approval and favorability (and both round to 41/53).  Question 7 is approval.  Question 8 is favorability.

Thank  you.

[pbrower2a]

Technically this is favorability, and not approval so I cannot really put it on the polling map.

https://www2.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2019/04/29/read-full-results-suffolk-university-boston-globe-poll/WAyevf7yhzt1wUWcZKywQL/story.html

Favorability of Donald Trump, 41-53

Trump vs. the unidentified Democratic nominee -- 40-43, with a huge number of undecided... not usable.

No change in the maps.

It has both.  Question 7 is Trump approval, question 8 is Trump favorability.  Both round to 41/53, although they were slightly different at more decimal places (approval 40.63/53.38, favorability 41.13/53.50).

Trump, net approval positive -- raw approval

55% and higher
50-54%
under 50%

tie (white)

Trump, net negative approval -- raw approval

43-49% with disapproval under 51% if approval 45% or higher
40-42%, or under 45% if disapproval is over 51%
under 40%

[pbrower2a]

A reminder: