Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Sorenroy]

If I'm going through these threads in a year, it will be awfully confusing that there is a gap between 1.4 and 1.6. Also, your holdup is that there used to be a 1.5 thread that got merged? That makes no sense. The 1.5 thread no longer exists and the only mention of it is buried deep in the middle of the 1.4 thread. Make this 1.5.

[pbrower2a]

Aggregate vote in contested House races statewide in 2016:

This may be different from a Presidential election as House seats often reflect the quality of House candidates and their campaigns.

The cumulative House vote for all states except Florida as a predictor of the Presidency. ME-02 is still undecided, so I am treating it as a tossup. Republicans won all three House seats in Nebraska, so I am going with those as percentages.

Draw your conclusions about how much you expect the electorate to expand in in what partisan direction. A larger percentage of eligible voters voted in this midterm election than any in a long time. More people vote in Presidential elections than in midterms, and I would guess that the habit of voting, once started, does not end. Rationales for voting in 2018 but not in 2020 such as "I am voting for my cousin the county sheriff, but I might not vote in 2020" at the personal level are rare.

The new voters are heavily young and Democratic-leaning. The rap on the Millennial Generation is that they have not been voting. That is probably at an end.

I'm going to give a wild guess that the District of Columbia votes strongly against Trump.

Alabama

Republican: 972,927 (58.8%) (1 uncontested race)
Democrats: 675,269 (40.8%)

Alaska

Republican: 128,516 (53.7%)
Democrats: 109,615 (45.8%)

Arizona

Democrats: 999,328 (49.8%)
Republicans: 989,802 (49.3%) (1 uncontested race)

Arkansas

Republicans: 553,536 (62.6%)
Democrats: 310,572 (35.1%)

California

Democrats: 5,041,566 (63.7%) (1 race with no candidate)
Republicans: 2,747,904 (34.7%) (8 races with no candidate)

Colorado

Democrats: 1,252,603 (52.4%)
Republicans: 1,050,938 (44.0%)

Connecticut

Democrats: 811,194 (61.0%)
Republicans: 508,669 (38.3%)

Delaware

Democrats: 227,353 (64.5%)
Republicans: 125,384 (35.5%)

(Florida -- votes are still being found and discovered, so no count. I am treating it as a tossup).

Georgia

Republicans: 1,981,713 (52.4%) (1 uncontested race)
Democrats: 1,802,475 (47.6%) (1 uncontested race)

Hawaii

Democrats: 287,735 (75.3%)
Republicans: 87,296 (22.8%)

Idaho

Republicans: 366,054 (62.0%)
Democrats: 204,020 (34.6%)

Illinois

Democrats: 2,651,012 (60.4%)
Republicans: 1,714,804 (39.1%)

Indiana

Republicans: 1,178,371 (56.6%)
Democrats: 897,632 (43.1%)

Iowa

Democrats: 656,986 (50.4%)
Republicans: 607,827 (46.6%)

Kansas

Republicans: 549,563 (53.9%)
Democrats: 447,134 (43.9%)

Kentucky

Republicans: 935,565 (59.6%)
Democrats: 613,070 (39.0%)

Louisiana

Republicans: 835,603 (57.2%) (1 uncontested race)
Democrats: 553,008 (37.9%)

Maine

Democrats: 328,409 (52.7%)
Republicans: 241,180 (38.7%)

Maryland

Democrats: 1,414,473 (64.9%)
Republicans: 717,945 (32.9%)

Massachusetts

Democrats: 1,529,641 (74.9%)
Republicans: 486,192 (23.8%) (4 uncontested races)

Michigan

Democrats: 2,108,119 (52.0%)
Republicans: 1,826,335 (45.1%) (1 uncontested race)

Minnesota

Democrats: 1,420,669 (55.2%)
Republicans: 1,125,569 (43.7%)

Mississippi

Republicans: 444,092 (50.6%) (1 uncontested race)
Democrats: 369,782 (42.1%)

Missouri

Republicans: 1,318,481 (55.1%)
Democrats: 1,016,096 (42.5%)

Montana

Republicans: 251,611 (51.1%)
Democrats: 227,036 (46.1%)

Nebraska

Republicans: 424,682 (62.5%)
Democrats: 255,053 (37.5%)

Nevada

Democrats: 491,004 (51.1%)
Republicans: 439,401 (45.8%)

New Hampshire

Democrats: 310,320 (54.4%)
Republicans: 249,714 (43.8%)

New Jersey

Democrats: 1,731,037 (59.6%)
Republicans: 1,139,101 (39.2%)

New Mexico

Democrats: 398,753 (58.2%)
Republicans: 262,138 (38.3%)

New York

Democrats: 3,664,970 (66.6%)
Republicans: 1,751,620 (31.8%) (6 uncontested races)

North Carolina

Republicans: 1,830,219 (50.5%)
Democrats: 1,748,018 (48.2%) (1 uncontested race)

North Dakota

Republicans: 192,733 (60.3%)
Democrats: 113,891 (35.6%)

Ohio

Republicans: 2,245,403 (52.3%)
Democrats: 2,019,120 (47.0%)

Oklahoma

Republicans: 730,531 (62.0%)
Democrats: 428,452 (36.3%)

Oregon

Democrats: 1,034,344 (57.4%)
Republicans: 686,952 (38.1%)

Pennsylvania

Democrats: 2,669,469 (54.9%)
Republicans: 2,179,246 (44.8%) (1 uncontested race)

Rhode Island

Democrats: 239,694 (65.0%)
Republicans: 128,831 (35.0%)

South Carolina

Republicans: 927,504 (54.3%)
Democrats: 757,499 (44.3%)

South Dakota

Republicans: 202,673 (60.3%)
Democrats: 121,002 (36.0%)

Tennessee

Republicans: 1,276,040 (59.2%)
Democrats: 843,658 (39.2%)

Texas

Republicans: 4,104,555 (50.4%) (4 uncontested races)
Democrats: 3,824,300 (47.0%)

Utah

Republicans: 510,244 (58.7%)
Democrats: 307,151 (35.4%)

Vermont

Democrats: 188,547 (69.2%)
Republicans: 70,705 (26.0%)

Virginia

Democrats: 1,864,483 (56.3%)
Republicans: 1,407,791 (42.5%) (1 uncontested race)

Washington

Democrats: 1,734,775 (62.8%)
Republicans: 947,374 (34.3%) (2 races with no candidate)

West Virginia

Republicans: 335,791 (58.4%)
Democrats: 232,856 (40.5%)

Wisconsin

Democrats: 1,358,156 (53.1%)
Republicans: 1,171,456 (45.8%) (1 uncontested race)

Wyoming

Republicans: 127,882 (63.7%)
Democrats: 59,929 (29.8%)

Trump edge:

dark blue 10% or more (really dark for 40% or more --  Nebraska's third Congressional district)
middle blue 5-9%
pale blue under 5%
effective tie (1% either way, both approval and disapproval under 50%)
pink under 5%, but disapproval 50% or higher or at least 1%
red 5-10%
dark red 10% or more (really dark for 40% or more -- District of Columbia and Massachusetts)

Maine 1 is in the southwestern part of the state and Maine 2 is all else.
Nebraska districts are shown 1, 2, and 3 left to right even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 left to right (west to east).

The voting advantage for Democrats in the House in November 2016 suggest 295 or 296 electoral votes for the Democrat, with 278 outside the margin of error (Iowa is barely within the margin of error, and Arizona offers a razor-thin, insignificant advantage for Democrats. Georgia and North Carolina are just inside the margin of error, too.
  

[President Johnson]

Why does he have so good numbers (for his standards) these days? Even Gallup had him at 45% approval.

[Thatkat04]

Why does he have so good numbers (for his standards) these days? Even Gallup had him at 45% approval.

RCP has him at -9.1 and 538 has him at -10. I'd say thats about average for him.

Edit: In fact, Trump has been in this range for almost a year. While we could cherry pick polls, the aggregates have barely budged.

Edit: It doesnt help that with the absence of high quality pollsters, a bunch of B-list polling firms have attempted to fill the vacuum. I'd rather we be getting nothing at all than the vast quantities of Morning Consult, Harris X, Emerson, Rasmussen, YouGov and Ipsos we're currently bombarded with.

[pbrower2a]

Timing of the election reports as polls close (assuming no change from 2016):

...and a reminder on how the votes come in as polls close in the various states:



This assumes no change before 2020, which could be invalid.

[Sorenroy]

If I'm going through these threads in a year, it will be awfully confusing that there is a gap between 1.4 and 1.6. Also, your holdup is that there used to be a 1.5 thread that got merged? That makes no sense. The 1.5 thread no longer exists and the only mention of it is buried deep in the middle of the 1.4 thread. Make this 1.5.

Sorry...  I thought of a compromise in which I turned this Forum to "1.5*" with an asterisk, and it did not work. I think that we are stuck with "1.6".

A compromise between who? Who is this wing of people so desperately pressing to have this thread not be 1.5? I honestly can't figure out why we'd stick to this name when it makes absolutely no sense.

Like, it's Trumps first term in office, thus the 1.x and this would be the fifth undeleted/unmerged thread so it should be... x.6? That doesn't make sense and is extremely counter-intuitive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC Dornsife/LA Times, March 15-April 15, 5165 adults including 5076 RV

Adults:

Approve 34
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 18
Strongly disapprove 39

RV:

Approve 35
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 18
Strongly disapprove 39

[Beet]

Trumps long range trend has been up.
2015- 35% favorable, losing to Hillary 35%-55%
2016- still 35% favorable, but within striking range (3-5) of Hillary
2016 (postelection)- 40% favorable, 40% approval
2017- high 30's to low 40's favorable
2018- low 40's to mid 40's favorable
2019- rising again

Same in the 2016 campaign. He started out losing the Iowa caucus to Ted Cruz. Then he started consistently winning, but in the 20's and low 30's. Then he started getting into the high 30's. Then he started getting 40's. Then he started getting 50's and his last opponents dropped out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trumps long range trend has been up.
2015- 35% favorable, losing to Hillary 35%-55%
2016- still 35% favorable, but within striking range (3-5) of Hillary
2016 (postelection)- 40% favorable, 40% approval
2017- high 30's to low 40's favorable
2018- low 40's to mid 40's favorable
2019- rising again

Same in the 2016 campaign. He started out losing the Iowa caucus to Ted Cruz. Then he started consistently winning, but in the 20's and low 30's. Then he started getting into the high 30's. Then he started getting 40's. Then he started getting 50's and his last opponents dropped out.

As the brokerage commercials say, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why does he have so good numbers (for his standards) these days? Even Gallup had him at 45% approval.

Because recently the news has been around his associates and other various criminals instead of him. Don't worry his approval will drop again soon enough...and then increase again...and then decrease, and so on and so forth. We just have to hope that it reaches a point where it drops by November 2020 if we want to have any chance of being rid of him.

[Person Man]

It could be that as long as he is out of the news, people can pretend that he is just some generic Republican and since the bottom line hasn't really changed in the last 2 years and the Obama left the country in good shape people have just tuned out. However, I don't think he will ever be "popular" by any stretch of the imagination or not enough to wipe out the small beachhead of power Democrats have been able to amass in Washington.

[pbrower2a]

I was polled in Michigan -- Presidency, Senate, Congress, and higher taxes for highways.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I was polled in Michigan -- Presidency, Senate, Congress, and higher taxes for highways.

Who was the pollster?

[pbrower2a]

I was polled in Michigan -- Presidency, Senate, Congress, and higher taxes for highways.

Who was the pollster?

I did not hear. The poll or Trump is approval-disapproval and of the Senate was favorable-unfavorable) and incumbent vs. challenger.

[pbrower2a]

Two of the least-interesting states in American politics, but they comprise  84 electoral votes.

California voters disapprove 64 - 30 percent of the job Trump is doing, one of the president's worst grades in any Quinnipiac University nationwide or state poll since he was elected.

Yawn!

https://poll.qu.edu/california/release-detail?ReleaseID=2615

New York (state), Siena:

President Trump has a negative 38-59 percent favorability rating, up slightly from 36-60 percent last month. His job performance rating climbed to negative 35-65 percent, up from 31-68 percent in March.

“Trump remains unpopular with his home state voters largely because of how ‘blue’ New York is. More than three-quarters of Democrats and a majority of independents both view him unfavorably and give him a negative job performance rating,” Greenberg said. “However, Republicans are bullish on the President, with 74 percent viewing him favorably and 70 percent giving him a positive job performance rating.”

# # #
This Siena College Poll was conducted April 8-11, 2019 by telephone calls conducted in English to 735 New York State registered voters.

It does not change the map. I'd guess that the "to Trump or not to Trump" question would get a horrid result for Trump in New York State, but I don't put my guesses on the map.

We are running low on available posts in this Forum, so prepare yourself for that eventuality.  

Approval and disapproval ratings of Donald Trump:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 76
40-43% 51
under 40%  144

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

27 more states, and 193 electoral votes to go!    

To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

8% or higher margin against Trump -- maroon
4-7.9% against Trump -- medium red
under 4% margin against Trump -- pink

I have yet to see exact ties or 'better' for Trump.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Monmouth University, 11-15 April

40/54 (vs 44/51 month ago)

RV: 40/54 (vs 44/52)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_041719.pdf/

[pbrower2a]

Trumps long range trend has been up.
2015- 35% favorable, losing to Hillary 35%-55%
2016- still 35% favorable, but within striking range (3-5) of Hillary
2016 (postelection)- 40% favorable, 40% approval
2017- high 30's to low 40's favorable
2018- low 40's to mid 40's favorable
2019- rising again

Same in the 2016 campaign. He started out losing the Iowa caucus to Ted Cruz. Then he started consistently winning, but in the 20's and low 30's. Then he started getting into the high 30's. Then he started getting 40's. Then he started getting 50's and his last opponents dropped out.

Try again. Sure, it is only one poll, and perhaps not the ideal. But we do not yet have 'ideal', and the 'definitive' will be the 2020 election:

Monmouth University, 11-15 April

40/54 (vs 44/51 month ago)

RV: 40/54 (vs 44/52)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_041719.pdf/

So much for the 'surge' in Trump support or erosion of mass contempt for him and his policies. Trump support has been remarkably stable.

Don't get me wrong: I expect the Trump campaign to trawl for the worst in human nature  in 2020, debasing political discourse and transforming politics as much into a sickening miasma to drive away people who dislike dirty politics. I expect him to give our system illegal hits, the equivalents of clipping in football, crosschecks in ice hockey, and hitting below the belt in boxing. His sort depends on the disappearance of normal standards of political decency and intellectual integrity. I already see a failed Presidency even without an economic meltdown or a diplomatic/military debacle.

We Americans may not be at our all-time best, but I am not sure that we need an experience that compels us to be the best by making such our only desperate chance for personal, cultural, national, and political survival. I hope that Democrats will turn his depravity and dishonesty against him without adopting any trace of those.

Truth may be inconvenient and  unsettling. It is all that we have for making wise, sustainable solutions to any problem that we have. It merits the sacrifice even of personal esteem.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/chucktodd/status/1118488794825666560

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, April 11-14, 1108 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Strongly approve 19 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+4)

Lots of Russia-related questions too.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/chucktodd/status/1118488794825666560

Or in any credible poll.

[pbrower2a]

It will be close -- or it won't.

The 'average' win for a President is about 62% of the electoral vote, which is about what Obama did in 2012.

You might expect electoral results to cluster around a mean in the area of 60% of the electoral vote, but such does not happen very often. Since 1900 the results have either been 65% or more or 57% or less in all but one Presidential election. Obama had about the most average win either for his initial election or a re-election, but his is the only one in between.  In 2012 I predicted that Obama would lose Florida because such would put him at a more reasonable 303 electoral votes... close to JFK in 1960.

Here's how I see it. If a Presidential nominee sees himself projecting to lose 280-258, he rarely panics. He presses in states where he is just a bit behind and tries to solidify bare leads where he thinks he is winning. He can broaden the map without putting too much at risk. 310-228? He needs to be more daring. 330-228? At this point it is panic time.  The candidate behind must take desperate measures just to see himself in the fray.  He might have to put some sure states at risk to pick up something on his fringe. One of two things happens: the candidate behind actually makes things close -- or fails to get what he wants, but loses what might have been a state supposedly in the bag. Thus 330-228 goes quickly to 370-288 or 290-248. That might describe Truman in 1948, whom all the 'smart people of the time' thought was sure to lose.  

And what he is losing 370-158 or worse? He's already composing his concession speech so that he can remain relevant and maintain some dignity.

Congratulations, Tom Dewey
You won by a landslide today
Through thick and through thin
We knew you would win
'Cause who'd ever vote to let
Truman stay in!
Congratulations, Tom Dewey!
Your Republican dreams have come true!
Here's a victory roar
For President number Thirty-Four
The White House is waiting... for You

(riff to Hail to the Chief)

In effect, the zone between 310 and 360 electoral votes is highly unstable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here are the pre-report baselines we can use for future comparisons:

538: Approve 42.1, Disapprove 52.9, Net -10.8

RCP: Approve 43.6, Disapprove 52.7, Net -9.1

The above averages were from the night before Barr's summary was released.  More than 3 weeks later, we're on the eve of the actual (though redacted) report being released, and the averages have changed...not much.

538: Approve 41.8 (-0.3), Disapprove 53.1 (+0.2), Net -11.3 (-0.5)

RCP: Approve 43.6 (nc), Disapprove 51.9 (-0.8 ), Net -8.3 (-0.8 )

RCP doesn't show the AP/NORC poll yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another quality pollster with not much movement:

Fox News, April 14-16, 1005 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

[Pericles]

Trump's approval ratings, always being negative, are a very strong sign that Trump was not in fact a popular charismatic campaigning genius but won primarily because Hillary was a terrible candidate (and he got lucky) and that he was seen by a bare plurality in the necessary states as the lesser evil. I'm inclined to think his 2020 odds are overrated and his true unpopularity with a majority of the electorate has not yet been priced in.

[Person Man]

Trump's approval ratings, always being negative, are a very strong sign that Trump was not in fact a popular charismatic campaigning genius but won primarily because Hillary was a terrible candidate (and he got lucky) and that he was seen by a bare plurality in the necessary states as the lesser evil. I'm inclined to think his 2020 odds are overrated and his true unpopularity with a majority of the electorate has not yet been priced in.

He could win under two conditions-
1) The financial headlines make the set of people who will be deciding the election think that the simple fact that Trump is president makes there be "plenty of room at the top" regardless of whether they actually like him. That is what Tocqueville said. People will tolerate a lot of incompetence,inequality, injustice, abuse, and corruption if they think they might have a shot to make it worth it.
2) The democratic brand is simply too damaged in too many places. Maybe it has become associated with people who are "not you" or "not normal" or somehow different. Agreeing with Republicans 30 or 40% of the time won't fix it and finding new things to disagree on won't either.