Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

The Mueller report is out, and some people will be reading it. Good Friday is a good day for reading about high-profile people that I can at my most charitable describe as dupes, including the current President.

I doubt that many polls will be made over the Holy Weekend.

Let's put it this way: Judas Iscariot was horribly underpaid for his betrayal of Jesus. 

[pbrower2a]

The witching post (#2000) is rapidly approaching, and in view of the Mueller report, this might be a good time to start moving some of your favorite posts (especially if theory or a utility) to "Trump approval ratings thread, 1.6". Why 1.6 and not 1.5? Because 1.5 got absorbed into 1.4.  At #2000, any thread gets closed, and we will have exactly 80 left after I post this.

I do not believe at this point that the Mueller report will significantly effect change in polling numbers. Trump supporters can seemingly excuse anything, including coordination with a foreign power (the stories are already out in the open) and violation of campaign-finance laws (it's 'only money, something that many Trump supporters understand only as a paycheck and what they can exchange at the store or gas station or pay as utilities, taxes, etc.)

I have the ability to close this thread at any time unless someone hits the witching post.

If I see new national polls that suggest that Trump approval ratings have dropped  into the low 30s I will first assume that such are outliers. But show me enough such seeming outliers and I will see a trend. I expect at least one statewide poll of approval of interest to modify my map (remember -- I got polled in Michigan this week).

Again, I still believe that approval ratings for the President are so low that they can hardly get less flattering -- nationally or statewide. Millions will be in denial about the content of the Mueller report, and those that have smelled a pervasive and permanent stench emanating from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue will simply have more confirmation. 

[pbrower2a]

March statewide data from Morning Consult, as this thread will almost certainly contain April and later incarnations of such data.  
Net approval map from Morning Consult for March 2019

I do not have approve/disapprove numbers, so these are hardly comparable to approval and disapproval. A +5 net approval or a -5% disapproval means far more at a 52-47 split than at 47-42 split. This does not supplant my earlier maps.  I assume that DC is extremely hostile to Trump due to its demographics.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

maroon 20% or higher net  disapproval  158
red 11% to 20% net disapproval  75
pink 6% to 10% net disapproval 43
white 1% to 5% net disapproval 60
light blue tie to 5% net approval 97
blue 6% to 10% net approval 26
navy 11%+ net approval

Although net disapproval is not as reliable a predictor of a Trump loss as is 100-disapproval, it is relevant.  I an astonished to see Pennsylvania in the third category, but a 7% negative edge is decisive unless the Democrats nominate someone with severe and obvious flaws. The white category, which I normally use for the zone of equal chance or a tie, gives a Democrat an edge even if it contains Virginia (4% is the usual margin of error). This category includes Florida and Ohio.

Indiana is a real shocker, as it looks on the fringe of contention. Then again, Obama did win Indiana in 2008. As a general  rule, a Republican needs to be winning Indiana by a double-digit margin to have a real chance of winning nationwide.  

OK -- 1.5 it is

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I would have thought you would have already learned from experience the futility of predicting that certain events will have a major impact on Trump's polling numbers.  I'm not surprised you think you own this thread.  Granted, you are a major contributor to this thread, largely because no one else cares to compile the numbers, and I thank you for that.  Everyone should have at least one obsession in their life and yours is at least marginally useful to others.

[pbrower2a]

I DO NOT OWN THIS THREAD. All threads close at 2000. Starting a new one? I have put little polling data there, the only bit being the monthly 50-state Morning Consult poll from March. The April poll will probably be available only after "1.5" is active and 1.4 isn't. One tip-off that 1.4 is about to close (a day or two) is that I will move my statewide approval and "Trump or not" polls there.  

I have the power to close this thread by default because I opened it. That is how it goes. It is good for people closing their mistakes, shutting off a poll among users,  or recognizing that nothing new will happen with it. Few threads ever reach or even approach 2000 posts; most become irrelevant as news dies.

So if you start a thread that reads "Tom Hanks for President", your thread is likely to die after a few people get bored of it, it becomes irrelevant, or under some circumstances (let us say you slander him) it will be taken down. Or you can close it and even delete it. All jokes get stale. Take my wife -- please!

This thread, like 1.3 and earlier threads along this theme, will be archived. The problem is that you will be unable to bring your material here easily, especially if it contains pictures, charts, or maps. This presents some problems -- such that I cannot easily compare Obama to Trump at times analogous to this (or any other time) based upon maps from 2011.

If I cannot continue the thread, then I can at least continue the theme in another fresh thread.

By the way -- I am extremely cautious about predicting how events will change approval and disapproval. If you remember the killing of Osama bin Laden -- it had only a fleeting effect upon approval numbers of Obama. American politics are extremely polarized, and support for Trump looks close to an imaginable floor.  

I have no reason to believe at this point that the release of the Mueller report will cut significantly into Trump support. Some people consider the investigation of the President a sort of treachery and see our President as the irreplaceable vehicle for achieving their social ideals. So suppose that Republicans lose the Senate as well as the Presidency in 2020 -- many people dread a liberal, godless, socialist, multicultural nightmare. People who suspected much that was released are getting their suspicions confirmed. Most such people despised President Trump before the release of the Mueller report and simply have more cause to despise him.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You tried to end 1.4 early; so far, you're the only one who thinks the next in the series should not be 1.5; and you apparently started your "1.6" several pages early just so you could set the number to be you think it should be.  I don't see any better term than "own" to indicate what you apparently think your relationship to it is.

[pbrower2a]

You tried to end 1.4 early; so far, you're the only one who thinks the next in the series should not be 1.5; and you apparently started your "1.6" several pages early just so you could set the number to be you think it should be.  I don't see any better term than "own" to indicate what you apparently think your relationship to it is.

I thought that the posts would be counting down even faster. My expectations are not always right. Welcome to the club.

Dave Leip owns this thread, and he can shut me down completely if he so chooses.  I 'own' only what I put in this thread. I am not posting polling results to "1.6" yet. "1.5" got merged into "1.4", which I would have never done. I have explained clearly at the start of "1.6" why I call it 1.6. I have seen threads shut down at 2000 posts and gotten caught with having to reintroduce the tools of maps.

Do I have my opinions? of course! Who doesn't?

The number of posts does not shrink. I want to make it possible for others to post polls on the approval for Trump and other relevant measures (including whether people want to vote for him or vote for someone else) after this thread is archived.

By the way -- the new thread is now renumbered "1.5", and I accept the decision. I have made the appropriate adjustments. 75 more posts here, at most, and this thread closes. I too would keep going.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, April 1-7, 1212 RV (1-month change)

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 58 (nc)

Strongly approve 19 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (nc)

Lots of interesting issue-related questions in this one.

[Kyng]

Ipsos / Reuters, 1005 adults, Apr 18-19:
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-TRUMP-RUSSIA-POLL/010091JB28J/Mueller%20Investigation%20Report%2004%2019%202019%20TRENDED%20PID.pdf

Approve: 37 (-6)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)

Oof.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos / Reuters, 1005 adults, Apr 18-19:
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-TRUMP-RUSSIA-POLL/010091JB28J/Mueller%20Investigation%20Report%2004%2019%202019%20TRENDED%20PID.pdf

Approve: 37 (-6)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)

Oof.

Terrible poll for Trump.  Impeachment went from 39/49 in March to 40/42 now.  Whether he should resign went from 46/46 to 47/37.  Even 22% of Republicans said Trump should resign!

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos / Reuters, 1005 adults, Apr 18-19:
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-TRUMP-RUSSIA-POLL/010091JB28J/Mueller%20Investigation%20Report%2004%2019%202019%20TRENDED%20PID.pdf

Approve: 37 (-6)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)

Oof.

Terrible poll for Trump.  Impeachment went from 39/49 in March to 40/42 now.  Whether he should resign went from 46/46 to 47/37.  Even 22% of Republicans said Trump should resign!

Although the disapproval rate doesn't go up much, the loss of approval is clearly out of the margin of error.  "Should not resign" has eroded by 9% One week, and one poll. Outlier? Maybe -- but there will be more polls. Ipsos seems like a very good pollster. 

Far fewer than 56% of Americans (the disapproval number) are liberals, so this is not cultural change. This is clearly about conduct, and not about ideology and political issues.

The 37% approval rating is nothing really new; I have seen this after other calamities for this President. I accept that few people have fully read the redacted Mueller Report; I am guessing that much of what is redacted can still hurt the President. Nothing exculpates the President. The most favorable thing that one can say of him is that he is a dupe, and that is a generous interpretation. The 6% drop in approval in one week suggests (unless this is an outlier, and I doubt that it is) a cratering in support for this President.

[pbrower2a]

Old (Gallup) polling data now on the average ten months old. Gallup does not do statewide polls as do some other pollsters, but it collects data from all fifty states. It shared this data early in 2019, and it says much about how things were in 2018. Polling about Trump has been remarkably stable, at least until... events that I am not discussing until I start putting current polls here.

OK, so it is not a complete map, but that's what I get when I assume that results mostly from 2018 are obsolete. Gallup, which does not do statewide polls, released the polling data on all 50 states as it used for its 2018 polls. Data will average in late June or early July, so it is obsolete -- if things have changed greatly.

Please pardon some of my hackish prose. Check the Gallup data in the link, and recognize that it may more closely reflect how things are now than when Trump was reeling from some political battles that he lost -- and after which many Americans were relieved.   

(Paging Mr. Brower.  Please report to your computer.)

Gallup Trump approvals in all 50 states

Cautionary note: this data was gathered throughout the whole of 2018, so take it with a grain of salt.  But it's a lot better than no data.  Summary:

Although much can change between now and Election Day 2020, a job approval rating of 50% or higher would presumably put Trump in good position to win a state in the presidential election. The 17 states with 50%+ approval ratings account for a combined total of 102 electoral votes. In contrast, the states in which Trump has an approval rating below 40% account for 201 electoral votes.

In order to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Trump would have to win all but one or two of the states in which his 2018 approval rating was between 41% and 49%. Some of the more challenging states to win from among this group, based on that approval rating, would be Texas (41%); Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (all at 42%); and Arizona and Florida (43%).

OK. Out with the crayons on the map. Every state that Trump lost in 2016 in which his approval rating is at 40%  or less is in maroon. There is no polling data on the District of Columbia, but we don't have to be stupid. Every state in which Trump approval is at 55% or higher is in navy blue.

Gallup 2018 data only.

Based on approval ratings, every one of these states should be double-digit wins for the Democrat or for Trump. The amazing facet of this map is that every state that Trump lost even by a small margin in 2016 is seemingly out of reach for him. His barest loss was New Hampshire, where the approval number for him is 35-58. The shakiest of these states against him is Nevada, at 40-55. 55% disapproval means that 55% of the voters will not vote for one. 55% approval seals a double-digit win.

Trump
approval 55% or higher
lost in 2016, approval 40% or lower, disapproval 55% or higher, and the majority of the statewide House vote going to Democrats
losses in 2016, approval 40% or lower

(OK, let's cut the verbiage for the likely electoral disaster for the President:

approval 55% or higher
Trump loss in 2016, approval numbers 40%A 55%D or worse, total US House races majority D

If you think that the vote of 2016 is irrelevant to 2020 -- then you are right.

Now in medium shades of red (states that Trump won in 2016, Trump approval is at 45A-51D or worse, and the Democrats won the majority of the House vote:

approval 55% or higher
approval 50%  to 54%
white -- Trump approval under 50% but tied or positive in net
Trump approval 45% or lower and net negative
Trump approval numbers 45%A 51%D or lower, Democrats won the majority of the House seats
Trump loss in 2016, approval numbers 40%A 55%D or worse, total US House races majority D

Note well that President Trump won everything not in maroon (deep red) in 2016, and he is not going to get any of what I show in maroon. If you are not going to pick up any loss from the prior election and you want to get re-elected, then you had better have started with at least 325 electoral votes to avoid losing, which means that you had better be at least as good as Obama. (Obama went from 365 to 332, and he came close to losing Florida, which would have made a close election in the Electoral College).   Of course, Obama lost the two states that he won with less than 50% of the popular vote in 2008, the two states in which he should have been most vulnerable -- and the wayward NE-02.

Trump is not winning people over, and when someone gets elected with the level of initial support that he got, he will have to win some people over. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ipsos / Reuters, 1005 adults, Apr 18-19:
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-TRUMP-RUSSIA-POLL/010091JB28J/Mueller%20Investigation%20Report%2004%2019%202019%20TRENDED%20PID.pdf

Approve: 37 (-6)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)

Oof.

Terrible poll for Trump.  Impeachment went from 39/49 in March to 40/42 now.  Whether he should resign went from 46/46 to 47/37.  Even 22% of Republicans said Trump should resign!

That's music to my ears. It still won't matter as long as the Republicans maintain Senate control, but people may finally be waking up! I almost can't believe it.

[The Mikado]

Um...I'm not going to put too terribly high a degree of trust in a poll taken over two days released on the second day of the poll, of which the second day was Good Friday. (Or Passover, I guess, not that that matters for most people)

BTW, Happy Easter/Passover.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Um...I'm not going to put too terribly high a degree of trust in a poll taken over two days released on the second day of the poll, of which the second day was Good Friday. (Or Passover, I guess, not that that matters for most people)

BTW, Happy Easter/Passover.

Well, that's why I qualified my post by saying "may." I'm sure the media cycle will eventually move beyond this and cause people to forget or stop caring. It's just interesting that the Barr letter's supposed "exoneration" of Trump barely moved the polls, but the report itself seems to be affecting them, at least so far. It suggests that people trust Mueller more than Barr. This is a small gleam of hope, and I'll take what I can get these days.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters also tends to be somewhat bouncy.  Let's see if it continues to show similar results for Trump.

[pbrower2a]

Um...I'm not going to put too terribly high a degree of trust in a poll taken over two days released on the second day of the poll, of which the second day was Good Friday. (Or Passover, I guess, not that that matters for most people)

BTW, Happy Easter/Passover.

Possible outlier -- let's wait to see what other polls have to say. It is all bad news for the President.

There will be more polls. Watch the direction more than the absolute result. Note well: 6%/43% is nearly a 14% erosion of support.

I will leave it to others to speculate on the meaning and consequences of such a drop.

Happy Easter/Passover. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

PSB Research, March 12-21, 1000 adults.  538 gives this pollster a B- rating, but I don't see a recent prior from them to compare.

Approve 42
Disapprove 58

Strongly approve 20
Strongly disapprove 42

If President Donald Trump runs for President again in the 2020 election, do you plan to vote for him?

Yes 29
No 56
Not sure 15

[pbrower2a]

PSB Research, March 12-21, 1000 adults.  538 gives this pollster a B- rating, but I don't see a recent prior from them to compare.

Approve 42
Disapprove 58

Strongly approve 20
Strongly disapprove 42

If President Donald Trump runs for President again in the 2020 election, do you plan to vote for him?

Yes 29
No 56
Not sure 15

Much about it is cannabis.

The "Trump or not" question is even more devastating than approval. Even the "no" offers him a ceiling of 44% of the popular vote. Split the "not sure" 8-7 for Trump, and one has no precedent since the Civil War. Taft lost in 1912 when his Party split on the Presidency, which will not happen this time. Such a performance would be worse than for Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. 

OK, Trump is without precedent. If he should lose, then the theme will be a combination of corruption and incompetence. 

[pbrower2a]

If I'm going through these threads in a year, it will be awfully confusing that there is a gap between 1.4 and 1.6. Also, your holdup is that there used to be a 1.5 thread that got merged? That makes no sense. The 1.5 thread no longer exists and the only mention of it is buried deep in the middle of the 1.4 thread. Make this 1.5.

It is 1.5 now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG monthly economic survey, April 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

R: 88/11
D: 9/87
I: 36/60

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard Institute of Politics Young Americans poll

March 8-20, 3022 young adults (age 18-29).  55% of these (about 1660) said they will definitely vote in 2020 and were designated likely voters.


Party ID:

All: D 39, R 23, I 36 (I breakdown: Lean D 21, Lean R 26, neither 59)
LV: D 50, R 26, I 24 (I breakdown: Lean D 34, Lean R 22, neither 43)


Trump approval:

All: 29/68
LV: 29/70


Other approvals:

Pelosi: 36/61 (LV: 42/57)
D's in Congress: 47/51 (LV: 53/46)
R's in Congress: 29/68 (LV: 29/70)


Lots of other interesting questions.

[pbrower2a]

ARG monthly economic survey, April 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

R: 88/11
D: 9/87
I: 36/60

Partly before, and partly after the release of the Mueller report.

What horrid numbers among independent voters! The 11% disapproval rate among Republicans doesn't seem so bad until one figures that disapproval within one's own Party rarely breaks into double digits. I would assume that some Republicans still believe in the Rule of Law more than in the personality of a President.

I would not make much of a 2% change in approval or disapproval ratings for an incumbent President.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, April 19-21, 1992 RV (1-week change)

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 57 (+6)

R: 81/17 (84/15)
D: 10/88 (11/85)
I: 32/58 (38/53)

Strongly approve 20 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+6)

Vote to re-elect Trump?

Definitely yes 24 (-5)
Probably yes 10 (nc)
Probably no 8 (-1)
Definitely no 49 (+5)

I believe this is the first time in 2019 that Trump has been under 40 in a Morning Consult RV poll.

EDIT: the 39% equals his all-time low approval in this poll and the net -18 is a record.

[Brittain33]

LOL, 538 adjusted that puppy *down* to 37%.