Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

It's basically impossible that Trump is that weak in AR.

Arkansas grows much cotton and rice, both export items of the United States, and both vulnerable to a trade war. I would be interested in a poll of Arkansas. Could Senator Tom Cotton be vulnerable if he should vote to retrain Trump?

It looks like an outlier.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

It's basically impossible that Trump is that weak in AR.

Arkansas grows much cotton and rice, both export items of the United States, and both vulnerable to a trade war. I would be interested in a poll of Arkansas. Could Senator Tom Cotton be vulnerable if he should vote to retrain Trump?

It looks like an outlier.

Out of 50 states, there are likely to be a couple outliers. 

[Comrade Funk]

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&choice=&zoomIn=true&sumTotals=false&utm_campaign=embed&map=true

The Civiqs tracking poll seems way more realistic than Morning Consult. Some key states (updated Oct 5):

Nevada: 38/59
Arizona: 45/52
Colorado: 39/58
Texas: 48/48
Kansas: 48/48
Iowa: 44/53
Minnesota: 40/58
Wisconsin: 45/52
Michigan: 44/53
Ohio: 48/48
Florida: 47/50
Georgia: 46/51
North Carolina: 45/52
Virginia: 40/57
Pennsylvania: 42/54
New Hampshire: 38/59
Maine: 41/56

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&choice=&zoomIn=true&sumTotals=false&utm_campaign=embed&map=true

The Civiqs tracking poll seems way more realistic than Morning Consult. Some key states (updated Oct 5):

Nevada: 38/59
Arizona: 45/52
Colorado: 39/58
Texas: 48/48
Kansas: 48/48
Iowa: 44/53
Minnesota: 40/58
Wisconsin: 45/52
Michigan: 44/53
Ohio: 48/48
Florida: 47/50
Georgia: 46/51
North Carolina: 45/52
Virginia: 40/57
Pennsylvania: 42/54
New Hampshire: 38/59
Maine: 41/56

Nationally, Trump's approval is 42/55.

[pbrower2a]

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&choice=&zoomIn=true&sumTotals=false&utm_campaign=embed&map=true

The Civiqs tracking poll seems way more realistic than Morning Consult. Some key states (updated Oct 5):

Nevada: 38/59
Arizona: 45/52
Colorado: 39/58
Texas: 48/48
Kansas: 48/48
Iowa: 44/53
Minnesota: 40/58
Wisconsin: 45/52
Michigan: 44/53
Ohio: 48/48
Florida: 47/50
Georgia: 46/51
North Carolina: 45/52
Virginia: 40/57
Pennsylvania: 42/54
New Hampshire: 38/59
Maine: 41/56

Nationally, Trump's approval is 42/55.

I have seen relatively few recent statewide polls (VA, WI, OH) newer than these. It's good for some fill-ins and updates

Others to fill in
AL  57-40
AS  47-50
AR 62-35
CA 28-70
CT 34-62
DE 40-57
DC (don't be stupid, probably 15-83 at best for Trump)
HI 25-72
ID 59-38
IL 34-64
IN 52-45
KY 61-35
LA 53-44
MD 28-68
MA 24-73
MS 53-44
MO 52-44
MT 51-45
NJ 36-61
NM 40-56
ND 65-32
NE 54-43
OK 62-34
OR 33-64
RI 33-64
SC 49-47
SD 58-39
TN 55-42
UT 49-45
VT 26-71
WA 32-65
WV 67-30
WY 65-31

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Politician]

#TrumpUnder55inWV

[pbrower2a]

If you see the map with fill-ins from Civiqs (and the fill-ins are registered voters, which so far is the best prediction of who will vote... basically one had to decide to vote in 2016 or 2018, and I see new, younger potential voters being more D than R)... Trump is going to need miracles or force to win re-election. 2018 had unusually-heavy voting for a midterm election, which portends a highly-active election in 2020. Trump will be the star of the Republican Party either as the nominee or as the scapegoat of Democrats, if not both.
I will make my guesses about the districts:

1. Dee Cee -- the demographics alone are horrible against Trump. Don't be stupid. Well-educated middle-class blacks can see through him and recognize him as someone capable of turning against them with little warning. And, yes, the black middle-class is very well educated. 

2. Maine -- ME-01 is even stronger D than Maine at large, and ME-02 seems disappointed in Trump. Maine as a whole will not be close, but ME-02 is likely to represent most of the shift in the vote in Maine. Trump isn't winning it.

3. Nebraska -- NE-01 (eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha) looks vulnerable to the Democrats this time.  NE-02 is about 12% more D than Nebraska as a whole, as shown in recent elections. NE-03, consisting of central and western Nebraska (among its "metro" areas are Grand Island and Scottsbluff) is probably solid R. 

So how do I see Trump's chances in the Electoral College?

276 no reasonable chance because of approval 40% or lower or disapproval 53% or higher
61 deep trouble
33 edge for the Democrat
45 (white) indeterminate
15 Trump edge
40 reasonably certain for Trump
60 solidly for Trump

This is what things look like for a Presidency in collapse with an incumbent President seeking re-election. If you want to figure what a defeat like those of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1984 with President Trump getting about 40% of the popular vote, then Trump ends up with about 60 electoral votes. I am not calling that yet, but even that looks more likely than any Trump victory in 2020. Between 276 and 477 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee is all a zone of Trump losses.

Yes, Trump is a failure. He has failed to pick up potential voters in states that he barely lost, and he has offended the sensibilities of people who may have failed to catch onto what he was doing, as on the environment. Knowing that people in their seventies rarely change their ways except as the result of new or worsening dementia, I see no way in which he will become less erratic and his administration will become less chaotic. If he is a showman in politics he is putting on a bad one, a bawdy experience that isn't sexy. Most of this polling antedates the exposure of the attempt of Donald Trump to induce pay-for-play foreign policy overseas befitting the pay-for-play domestic policy that he supports in America. 

[Kyng]

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&choice=&zoomIn=true&sumTotals=false&utm_campaign=embed&map=true

The Civiqs tracking poll seems way more realistic than Morning Consult. Some key states (updated Oct 5):

Nevada: 38/59
Arizona: 45/52
Colorado: 39/58
Texas: 48/48
Kansas: 48/48
Iowa: 44/53
Minnesota: 40/58
Wisconsin: 45/52
Michigan: 44/53
Ohio: 48/48
Florida: 47/50
Georgia: 46/51
North Carolina: 45/52
Virginia: 40/57
Pennsylvania: 42/54
New Hampshire: 38/59
Maine: 41/56

I think there's reason to be skeptical of the Kansas figures.

This is an online survey - and, if a respondent's state cannot be determined (beyond the fact that they're in the USA), then they get placed in the geographical centre of the country (which happens to be in Kansas):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/36013872/why-the-internet-is-blaming-one-us-farm-for-hundreds-of-scams-and-online-fraud

If they're not controlling for this, then it's possible that their Kansas survey is erroneously including all the people whose states could not be determined - which is going to drag the Kansas approval ratings towards the national average.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1181316432312881152

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1181316432312881152

Why is it always 17 points? That's the same number he used to brag about how he helped Dan Bishop's polling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1181316432312881152

Why is it always 17 points? That's the same number he used to brag about how he helped Dan Bishop's polling.

Maybe it's his lucky number or something.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1181316432312881152

Why is it always 17 points? That's the same number he used to brag about how he helped Dan Bishop's polling.

Maybe it's his lucky number or something.

So many good numbers. The numbers are great. They're really good. No President has gotten numbers this good. I think if you look at other Presidents in history, Obama, Reagan, Lincoln, they never had numbers this good. We're doing great. Not a lot of people know this, and the dishonest media won't ever tell you. Believe me.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1181316432312881152

Why is it always 17 points? That's the same number he used to brag about how he helped Dan Bishop's polling.

Maybe it's his lucky number or something.

So many good numbers. The numbers are great. They're really good. No President has gotten numbers this good. I think if you look at other Presidents in history, Obama, Reagan, Lincoln, they never had numbers this good. We're doing great. Not a lot of people know this, and the dishonest media won't ever tell you. Believe me.

I've figured it out: he has a mystical connection with the 17th President, Andrew Johnson -- who was the first one to be impeached.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Oct. 4-7, 1483 RV (change from Sep. 30)

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 29 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 47 (-1)

Biden 51, Trump 40 (was 54/38)
Sanders 49, Trump 42 (was 53/39)
Warren 49, Trump 41 (was 52/40)

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Oct. 4-6, 800 adults (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

This is typically one of Trump's best among the high-quality pollsters.  The 43 approval is his lowest since March, and tied for the lowest since April 2018.

[ajc0918]

Trump looks to be sinking across the board.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Impeachment Tracker, Oct. 7-8, 1118 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 20
Strongly disapprove 43

Trump should be impeached:

Yes 45
No 39

Congress should investigate if Trump committed impeachable offenses during his call with the President of Ukraine:

Agree 58
Disagree 31

Strongly agree 40
Strongly disagree 18

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico national tracker, Oct. 7-8, 1991 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

No strong approval/disapproval categories this week for some reason.  This is the highest disapproval number in this poll since July.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 6-8, 1500 adults including 1241 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Strongly approve 23 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

Generic D 40 (nc), Trump 37 (+1)

Approve of impeachment inquiry (last week's wording: should House try to impeach Trump?)

Yes 45 (+1), No 42 (+5)

Senate should remove Trump?

Yes 45 (-1), No 39 (+2)


RV:

Approve 46 (-4)
Disapprove 52 (+4)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Generic D 47 (-2), 42 (+3)

Approve of impeachment inquiry:

Yes 50 (nc), No 46 (+7)

Senate should remove Trump?

Yes 48 (-3), No 44 (+5)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (-1), R 42 (+2)


This sample was more R-heavy than usual for YouGov (D 34, I 38, R 28).  For comparison, last week was 35/40/24 and the week before was 35/29/25.

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: PPP, Oct. 4-6, 963 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 51

Impeach Trump?

Support 48
Oppose 48

[BlueSwan]

North Carolina: PPP, Oct. 4-6, 963 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 51

Impeach Trump?

Support 48
Oppose 48

51% disapproval in NC. I like seeing that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, Oct. 6-8, 1003 RV (prior poll Sep. 15-17)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+4)

Do you think President Trump should be impeached and removed from office? (change from July)

Yes 51 (+9)
No 43 (-7)

What do you think is more important to Donald Trump?

Doing what's best for himself 55
Doing what's best for the country 39

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

We've probably reached the point where it's pretty hard to virtually anyone who approves of Trump voting against him in 2020 and anyone who disapproves of him not voting for the Democrat. The Libertarian and Green almost definitely won't get 6% of the vote agian

[HisGrace]

Trump's key to victory last time was winning with people who disapproved of both him and Clinton. The disapprove and pro-impeachment numbers are almost exactly the same in a lot of these polls. I don't think he's going to be able to do that this time. If you think he should be impeached you're not going to vote for him.

[BlueSwan]

Trump's key to victory last time was winning with people who disapproved of both him and Clinton. The disapprove and pro-impeachment numbers are almost exactly the same in a lot of these polls. I don't think he's going to be able to do that this time. If you think he should be impeached you're not going to vote for him.

There's little doubt that Trump would lose big to a generic democrat, but we all know such a person does not exist. Most republicans disapproved of Trump before he became the republican nominee in 2016, but still showed up for him. Contrary to 2016 when democratic turnout was subdued due to the erroneous belief that the election was already won, democrats will be fired up in 2020 to oust Trump. But democrats should be really careful in picking the right nominee. I really believe that they do NOT need to nominate an "inspiring leader" or anything like that. The democratic base will show up in 2020. The problem is whether it is easier to get moderates and NeverTrump republicans to show up for Warren/Sanders or to get leftists to show up for Biden/Harris/Buttigieg/O'Rourke/Booker/Klobuchar. I strongly believe the latter. The vast majority of actual leftists will be more than motivated enough to oust Trump, whereas many moderates will be scared off by a "radical" leftist candidate, some even enough to support Trump, while others will just abstain.