Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GP270watch]

 Who are these people who approve of Trump until his racism flares up or tragic racist events like Charlottesville or El Paso happen and then go back to supporting him?

[GP270watch]

 Hopefully Democrats over perform where these poll numbers are trending, like they did in 2018.

[GP270watch]

Gallup, Sep. 3-15, 1525 adults (prior poll Aug. 15-31)

Approve 43 (+4)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

The previous poll looks like an outlier, as this is more in line with the last few before that.

Trump has a lot shy support. Whenever the headlines get real bad or you see him babble some racist nonsense you see him drop 3 to 5 points and then magically go up again when the headlines die down.

[GP270watch]

 I want to see where we are around the holidays when Congress goes home and the news takes a break. If Trump's numbers rebound to his usual averages, it just shows no matter what happens we are in a highly polarized environment and everything is baked in. We've seen Trump's numbers tank when the news cycle is embarrassing for him only to go up again when that current story dies down or is supplanted by another.

[GP270watch]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Throw in a recession and you get a 1980/1932 style blow out

  Trump looks awful in Iowa which really give the Democrats some cushion on the electoral map.

[GP270watch]

UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics:

28% of Utah voters say they “strongly” approve
17% “somewhat” approve
8% “somewhat” disapprove
47% “strongly” disapprove

Source

 Mitt Romney grow a spine, this guy can't touch you.

[GP270watch]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

[GP270watch]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

[GP270watch]

 They could also be sick of Trump and not really care about the job he's doing.

[GP270watch]

 Warren right there with Biden, very interesting.

[GP270watch]

A very bad poll for Trump from a very good pollster:

IBD/TIPP, Oct. 24-31, 903 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Among independents: Approve 34 (-9), Disapprove 58 (+6)

Impeachment inquiry (n=768):

Support 61 (+6)
Oppose 39 (-5)

Among independents: Support 64 (+11), Oppose 35 (-10)

 Awful poll for Trump. He's toast a 60%, this gets rid of the shy Trump phenomenon.

[GP270watch]

 The 2016 popular vote polling was not even off. Trump did a little better than expected but well within the margin of error. Trump just got the exact breakdown he needed thanks to our antiquated electoral process.

[GP270watch]

His point -- in a discussion about polling -- was that the polling was quite accurate on the 2016 PV. 

I thought this was fairly obvious but thank you.

[GP270watch]

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

 It also didn't help that Trump then ran with a baseless conspiracy that he actually won the popular vote because 3 million non-citizens or "illegals" as he calls them voted.

 But we just gloss over that because Trump.