Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why does he have so good numbers (for his standards) these days? Even Gallup had him at 45% approval.

Because recently the news has been around his associates and other various criminals instead of him. Don't worry his approval will drop again soon enough...and then increase again...and then decrease, and so on and so forth. We just have to hope that it reaches a point where it drops by November 2020 if we want to have any chance of being rid of him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ipsos / Reuters, 1005 adults, Apr 18-19:
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-TRUMP-RUSSIA-POLL/010091JB28J/Mueller%20Investigation%20Report%2004%2019%202019%20TRENDED%20PID.pdf

Approve: 37 (-6)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)

Oof.

Terrible poll for Trump.  Impeachment went from 39/49 in March to 40/42 now.  Whether he should resign went from 46/46 to 47/37.  Even 22% of Republicans said Trump should resign!

That's music to my ears. It still won't matter as long as the Republicans maintain Senate control, but people may finally be waking up! I almost can't believe it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Um...I'm not going to put too terribly high a degree of trust in a poll taken over two days released on the second day of the poll, of which the second day was Good Friday. (Or Passover, I guess, not that that matters for most people)

BTW, Happy Easter/Passover.

Well, that's why I qualified my post by saying "may." I'm sure the media cycle will eventually move beyond this and cause people to forget or stop caring. It's just interesting that the Barr letter's supposed "exoneration" of Trump barely moved the polls, but the report itself seems to be affecting them, at least so far. It suggests that people trust Mueller more than Barr. This is a small gleam of hope, and I'll take what I can get these days.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1122111857777631232

Trump is so lucky that he has a polarized electorate. If that wasn't the case, he'd be dead on arrival.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Hampshire: Suffolk, April 25-28, 800 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

It seems to resemble his national numbers.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That looks about right. Evangelicals are such hacks.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Chuck Todd complimented President Trump on the economy on MTP yesterday and now the entire google newsfeed on Trump is talking about rising approvals. Good day for the Prez.

So now "the Fake News" is suddenly credible?

Seriously though, what specific policy has Trump introduced to make people think that he should be credited with the economic stability we are seeing? This doesn't just apply to him actually, it goes for any President. It's a real pet peeve of mine for Americans to simplistically associate the economy with the President. The economy as a concept isn't that simplistic, there is much more that affects it than who the President is. A President can certainly influence and affect it, but never to the point where they are the sole reason why an economy is good or bad. I wish Americans would stop thinking this way and understand the real job of the President and what they can and cannot do. Though, thanks to his party being spineless shills for him, Trump seems to be indicating that the President can in fact do anything. Trump's soft support really are the worst people in the country.

What has he even done lately to cause this improvement in his approval ratings overall? Because trampling over the Constitution, threatening immigrants with new pointless restrictions, and failing to get North Korea to decrease their nuclear program, among other failings of his; seem to clearly not matter to the simple-minded, short-term memory having people of this surely doomed nation.

I'm getting ahead of myself though. His poll numbers are bound to dip again, as is always the case and I guess I just take solace that these kind of polls are happening now as opposed to in October of November of next year, because these are the kind of numbers (in spite of still being kind of crappy) that indicate his re-election, by the Trump standard of course. If we do see  numbers similar to these again at that time, game over. This country is his and his party's and will be even more unrecognizable after another four years of him being President.

[Progressive Pessimist]

PPP, May 1, 658 RV (prior poll March 27-28)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

Well, bust goes the gigantic Donald Trump bubble that was bobbing along the American skyline.

I hope the media gives this poll as much attention as they did to his more positive ones from the last few days. They're going to fail us again in 2020, aren't they?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump is at -6.9 in rcp today.

That’s got to be approaching one of the lower spreads he has had, right?

Here’s something to ponder:

What if the “investigation of the investigators” finds illegal behavior on the part of fbi officials? John Durham is as respected as mueller. That would play into trump’s Narratives and would rally the base big time and spike turnout

Keep dreaming.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hart Research for National Security Action (D), April 23-27, 1205 LV

Approve 44
Disapprove 56

Lots of questions on national security and foreign policy.

Republicans have usually owned those issues in Presidential elections -- but not with Trump as President.

That's also kind of true of taxes, at least in SALT states. Democrats used that to their advantage here in New Jersey. All New Jersey Republicans care about are taxes, so when they're voting for Democrats on that issue in suburban areas, you know it's bad.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would be spinning with jubilance for 4 years, if Biden (or any Dem) took Texas in 2020.

Me too because the instant that state is called for them, they won the election and are sure to scare the piss out of the GOP. I don't think it will happen though. We can't have nice things like this in our world, it seems.

[Progressive Pessimist]

CNN Poll: Rising share expect Trump to win in 2020

A majority of voters (55%) think President Donald Trump will win a second term. Back in December, only 44% of voters believed he would win a second term.

It’s an interesting turnaround to be sure, but, while this measure is fun to look at, it hasn’t been particularly telling. 

Back in 1991, George H.W. Bush was basically a shoo-in for re-election in 1992, if you believed Americans. When asked by the Pew Research Center who was most likely to win the next presidential election, Bush or his Democratic opponent, 76% of Americans said Bush. Bush, of course, went on to lose that election to Democrat Bill Clinton.

Americans got it wrong four years later, too. In 1995, just 24% of Americans told the CNN/Time poll that they thought Clinton would be re-elected. Clinton would end up winning rather easily.

Still, George W. Bush and Barack Obama were favored to win a year out from their re-election bids: Bush, with 63% of Americans thinking he would win, and Obama, at 50%.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-prediction-economy-issues/index.html

This might actually be a good thing because more voters who didn't take him seriously last time very well could this time and realize how important it is to vote, especially if they dislike him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Marist, May 31-June 4, 944 adults including 783 RV (prior poll April 24-29)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-3)

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 36 (+3)
Definitely vote against Trump 51 (-3)
Unsure 13 (+1)

Uh-oh, looks another Trump "surge!"

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wonder how the Iran thing is going to go. Are people thinking it was some sort of shrewd brinksmanship or just another childish game?

Are people thinking that Trump is actually "improving" or is this still just statistical noise? If Trump's standing is "improving", who is giving him credit for improving? Do people really just think they have more money now?

He blusters and then backs off. He loses a couple percent in approval and then gets it back. For some he alternates between horrible and tolerable based on that alone. Such things become the focus.

If it is brinkmanship it has risks that can turn a usually-shaky situation catastrophic.  



It's still within the range of statistical noise. Trump eases off a folly and he gets a slight increase in approval. That's about right. Then he threatens to do something stupid, and down go his polling numbers. We see that often. It is his character.  

This Iran thing doesn't count or are people buying it?

He loses a couple points of approval, backs off, and gets them back, or so seems the pattern. It may be disgusting, and even ineffective... but there are people in that roller-coaster.

And that's the biggest problem with this country. If he just had his base and no one else, he wouldn't be have an iota of a chance in 2020, but his soft support, "the stove touchers" are probably the worst people in the country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think OH and maybe FL may tilt Democratic this time

I wish. That poll about the economy definitely weakens Trump's biggest asset as a narrative, but that's still way too optimistic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Gallup, June 19-30, 1018 adults (2-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 44

(No priors for "strongly")

Should Trump be impeached and removed from office?

Yes 45
No 53

So there you have it. 45% will definitely voting Democrat and 41% will definitely be voting for him.
14% are either right smack in the middle or don't have an opinion but still want to vote.

If Trump wins them 2:1, He will do about about as well as W or Obama did when they got reelected.
If the Democrat wins them 2:1, He will be somewhere in McCain, Dukakis, or Dole territory.

We all know the narrative.

If he's winning. The few randos that bring it up will be like "Gee.. Obama's an idiot! Obamacare is socialism, right? I'm perfectly happy with what the company is giving me but its good that people have more options if they aren't getting it, I guess.  But hey!  Romney is kind of weird and makes me uncomfortable. I mean 47% of us are takers?! Give me a break!  Heck it! I'm voting for Obama..again I really want someone new to be president and maybe they will put someone up there in 4 years worth voting for, right?"

or quite simply "Anybody but Bush, but Kerry!"

Once I even heard at 6 oclock on Election Night, "I was ready to vote for Kerry but when I got in the voting booth, a voice told me to vote for Bush".

 

Never overestimate undecided voters!

[Progressive Pessimist]

PPP, July 3-8, 604 RV (change from May 1)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-4)

With multiple polls showing slight improvement, has Trump actually done a better job being president?

I think it's fair to say that the trend in Trump's approval rating has shown a small increase recently.  This doesn't necessarily mean he's done a better job.

Trump's poll numbers always seem to increase whenever the spotlight isn't on him.

It's partly why he won in 2016. Timing is everything with Trump, for better and worse.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So his approvals went up after his latest idiotic racism and Epstein scandals?

It's not necessarily because of that, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it was.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33

"Imagine if you will, a world where Texas votes to the left of the nation as a whole..."

It's a world that's too good to be true.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New York doesn't like Trump, but AOC is also not very much liked. They're not polled in this survey, but satisfying Andrew Cuomo and Chuck Schumer are more popular.

https://twitter.com/Morning_Joe/status/1159056681101385728

Ocasio-Cortez is still too obscure for that to be a fair comparison.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Who are these people who approve of Trump until his racism flares up or tragic racist events like Charlottesville or El Paso happen and then go back to supporting him?

Semi deplorables.

I call them "stove-touchers."

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1163081384640024576

Another reassuring piece of data. I really hope it lasts until next November.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida: St. Pete's Polls, 8/21-22 (1,941 RVs)

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

R: 80/18
D: 18/79
I: 45/52

Lean R.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1166691180500983809?s=20

This is probably the most significant change in the 2020 election dynamic if this holds. Trump's rationale for reelection boils solely down to the economy. If you take that away, he really has nothing else. Except muh judges or something

The only options left for him will be SOCIALISM *ominous rocking chair creak* and IMMIGRANTS!

[Progressive Pessimist]

FL only votes Dem in a landslide, 2016 has taught us this and 2018. FL isnt California.

You can win the house but you can’t win the senate or the presidency without them yet.

That's why I hate the state so much.