Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Thatkat04]

Its just quite frustrating because they're having a pretty large effect on RCP. I'm terrible at math, but Trump would be around -10 without the Rasmussen poll. Instead he's at -7.8. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say they're trying to make it seem like Trump got a Mueller report bump. I would not be surprised if they show Trump at +10 tomorrow, there by skewing the aggregates even more.

[Thatkat04]

So the great conspiracy is that RCP's Grand Plan is to influence the election by giving Trump an extra point?

RCP (prefers registered or likely if there is):
44.0/51.8

538 (polls of likely or registered voters):
43.5/51.9


Got it.

Thats clearly not what anybody said.

Ras has had outliers (in both directions) before.  They usually correct within a few days.

More than likely. I'm just surprised after 2018 they're calling attention to themselves again after another huge outlier. You'd think they'd be trying to recover what little reputation they had before 2012. I remember growing up watching politics and Rasmussen regularly being cited as a a gold standard along with Zogby. 

[Thatkat04]

Gallup has always been notoriously noisy. The issue now is that since they've switched from weekly to monthly, we have to wait another 4 weeks to see if its actual movement or not. And it since its Gallup, its more than likely noise.

[Thatkat04]

There hasn't been a gold-standard-poll in almost 3 weeks now. Are they waiting for the release of Barr-Mueller's report?

Well that's possible. But since polling has continued to get more time consuming and expensive, there is less actual incentive to do it. Since we're over a year away from the next major election, these polling droughts aren't unexpected in my opinion.

[Thatkat04]

Why does he have so good numbers (for his standards) these days? Even Gallup had him at 45% approval.

RCP has him at -9.1 and 538 has him at -10. I'd say thats about average for him.

Edit: In fact, Trump has been in this range for almost a year. While we could cherry pick polls, the aggregates have barely budged.

Edit: It doesnt help that with the absence of high quality pollsters, a bunch of B-list polling firms have attempted to fill the vacuum. I'd rather we be getting nothing at all than the vast quantities of Morning Consult, Harris X, Emerson, Rasmussen, YouGov and Ipsos we're currently bombarded with.

[Thatkat04]

Isn't YouGov basically poo?

Neither YouGov, Morning Consult or Reuters/Ipsos are what I'd classify as "good" pollsters. I'd say we need to wait for one of the gold standards that polled after the Barr summary to go back into the field and see if there was any movement. Untill then, delving deep into online pollster's daily numbers doesnt seem all that productive.  

[Thatkat04]

More YouGov. Lovely. /s

[Thatkat04]

ABC/WaPo, April 22-25, 1001 adults (previous poll in late Jan.)


Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-4)

Thats frustrating. But these numbers seems to give merit to the theory that Mueller and Russia are already built into Trump's numbers.

[Thatkat04]

ABC/WaPo, April 22-25, 1001 adults (previous poll in late Jan.)


Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-4)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-4)

Thats frustrating. But these numbers seems to give merit to the theory that Mueller and Russia are already built into Trump's numbers.

Well, the prior poll was in the middle of the shutdown, which was a period when Trump's numbers were generally awful.  The two before that were 40/53 (Nov.) and 41/54 (Oct.)

That makes it even more frustrating. But yeah, it starting to look like right after the Barr summary. Its not that people dont care, its just that this scandal has been going on for so long that everyone has already formed an opinion. Thats why the economy is growing by 3% yet hes still underwater by double digits.

[Thatkat04]

The Mueller report will be a campaign issue, and the dem nominee will bring it up when questioning Trump's ethics and behavior. But as of now, since Trump wasn't indicted, it'll fade into the background and Trump's numbers will return to the usual -10 equilibrium its been in for over a year. Not surprising, but disappointing.