Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Person Man]

In their latest poll:

27% definitely re-elect Trump
10% probably re-elect Trump
7% probably vote for someone else
48% definitely vote for someone else

So, a total of 37% definitely/probably vs. 55% probably not/definitely not.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016a-032b-dcb9-af7a-e7ff39760001

I can buy that unless there is a huge change in circumstances, that 48% of the voting population will never vote for Trump. Being that the economy is juiced up with tax cuts, loans, and speculation, there are no secular factors that can bail him out. Outside of a black swan that makes him a legend, he gets past 50% of the popular vote only if he runs one of the best campaigns in modern history and the Democrats run one of the worst. At this point, I still think he wins but with a much narrower electoral vote victory. He still probably barely loses the popular vote and he wins because of a few thousand votes in New Hampshire in Wisconsin. Maybe he does slightly better in Florida due to the graying population but does worse in Iowa and Ohio because of his tariffs and just acting like a rich asshole instead of a “populist”. Even if he loses, I can see Trump doing about as well as Reynolds or DeWine. Maybe as well as Obama’s first run in Florida. It could be a DeSantis level thing if he loses but not by a lot. That almost never happens to previously elected incumbents though. In general, I expect him to pull another one out of his ass in 2020 because otherwise he will get his ass totally screwed until it’s complete pulp. It’s still a ways away but I think the window for the catalyst for that is slipping. It looks like maybe the relativistically wealthy are thinking they can get one of their own over the hump by just not calling in their loans and letting people live off them for a little while longer. Probably the same way they waited out Obama. They couldn’t show the upstart who was boss but they were at least able to cripple his agenda by refusing to lend anymore until Washington swung back to the right. It usually works unless something else happens.

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 6-9, 1500 adults including 1267 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+1)

RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

That’s not good for business...

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1116031148327616519
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1116031431027896321

Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51

I would say his floor is 42, 46 will not vote for him. He needs undecideds 2 to 1.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1116031148327616519
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1116031431027896321

Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51

This supports a trend in recent polls that I find quite interesting.  The intention to vote for or against Trump has been running several points below his approval rating in most polls that ask both questions.  Generally for an incumbent, I would expect them to get a vote share that's at least as high as their approval numbers, and probably a bit better; voters might not be crazy about an incumbent, but might not dislike him enough to turn him out.  In Trump's case, it may be that some voters think he's done an OK job as President, but are turned off enough by his personality, scandals, and other baggage that they'd rather have someone new.

Didn’t Obama have the same problem? A lot of voters were frustrated with the drama and liked to think of themselves as keeping an open mind. A few million eventually defected but with the countercurrents caused by his opponent, he was still able to maintain half of his margin.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1116031148327616519
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1116031431027896321

Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51

This supports a trend in recent polls that I find quite interesting.  The intention to vote for or against Trump has been running several points below his approval rating in most polls that ask both questions.  Generally for an incumbent, I would expect them to get a vote share that's at least as high as their approval numbers, and probably a bit better; voters might not be crazy about an incumbent, but might not dislike him enough to turn him out.  In Trump's case, it may be that some voters think he's done an OK job as President, but are turned off enough by his personality, scandals, and other baggage that they'd rather have someone new.

Didn’t Obama have the same problem? A lot of voters were frustrated with the drama and liked to think of themselves as keeping an open mind. A few million eventually defected but with the countercurrents caused by his opponent, he was still able to maintain half of his margin.

Obama had more of a margin  that he could lose. The Obama margin went from 7.26% in 2008 to 3.86%, a decrease of 3.40% Trump won with less than a national plurality in the popular vote, so what does a 3.40% deterioration do to his chances of winning re-election?

He loses four states -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida that he won in 2016, while barely holding onto Arizona and North Carolina.

My "to Trump or not to Trump" maps so far suggest Trump losing at best for the Republican Party like the elder Bush in 1992 or at worst like Carter 1980 or Hoover 1932. My simple approval-disapproval maps suggest a not-so-severe Trump loss.  President Trump needs miracles or a rigged election to get re-elected.  

I still think the most likely scenario is that there is just a year and a half of the same sh**t and that voter the Democrats need in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, or Florida will be saying to themselves or to anyone who asks that "Trump is a total douche, but I am not too sure about this guy the Dems put up there. S/he's kind of awkward and a little insincere. Nevermind all the possible corruption and serious doubts about their national loyalty and trustworthiness that have come to light about them since the summer.  I have a job. My kids are getting enough to eat. My brother's in the service and not getting his balls shot off in some sand box a gazillion miles away. Heck it. I'm going to vote for Trump. I don't like it but I think I can wait another four years and maybe the Democrats will get their sh**t together and put somebody up there worth voting for in 2024."

https://www.270towin.com/maps/2X6yB - Trump wins the popular vote but its so close that even without a strong 3rd party candidate, he doesn't  win a majority. He does quite a bit worse in the EV, though. Raising hopes that the Democrats aren't going to struggle as much in the EV in the future.


Basically Bush versus Kerry all over again. Bush starts with a deficit in the popular vote and a more unified opposition but ends up doing about as well as anyone could have reasonably expected him to do because the nation collectively has realized that they needed lose 20 or 30 pounds but that they were on vacation or something and this wasn't the best time to start a diet.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/MoElleithee/status/1116309933090164736

Is this tweet fake news or did this fake news actually happen?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/MoElleithee/status/1116309933090164736

Is this tweet fake news or did this fake news actually happen?

It actually happened. No surprise it was Lou Dobbs of all people.

He’s arguably a bigger basement dweller than Tucker Carlson. Figures.

[Person Man]

AJC Poll for Georgia:

Trump approval:

Approve: 40
Disapprove: 56

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-kemp-approval-ratings-the-rise-trump-still-underwater/5EDalXwOSNvonieS90ixEN/

I doubt his approval is actually anywhere near that low but I am more optimistic about GA flipping than NC. Call me crazy but I think GA is a legitimate tossup.

I think North Carolina and Georgia will be considered a bellwether from 2016 on. The lean has weakened enough the next Democratic president to win both states provided he wins comfortably in the EV.

[Person Man]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/248633/post-mueller-report-trump-approval-back-high.aspx

With that rate Trump will win reelection in landslide! 

What rate, exactly? A trend line that's basically 0?

It’s an obvious outlier if you even look at even Republican poll of polls.

[Person Man]

It could be that as long as he is out of the news, people can pretend that he is just some generic Republican and since the bottom line hasn't really changed in the last 2 years and the Obama left the country in good shape people have just tuned out. However, I don't think he will ever be "popular" by any stretch of the imagination or not enough to wipe out the small beachhead of power Democrats have been able to amass in Washington.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/chucktodd/status/1118488794825666560

Or in any credible poll.

[Person Man]

Trump's approval ratings, always being negative, are a very strong sign that Trump was not in fact a popular charismatic campaigning genius but won primarily because Hillary was a terrible candidate (and he got lucky) and that he was seen by a bare plurality in the necessary states as the lesser evil. I'm inclined to think his 2020 odds are overrated and his true unpopularity with a majority of the electorate has not yet been priced in.

He could win under two conditions-
1) The financial headlines make the set of people who will be deciding the election think that the simple fact that Trump is president makes there be "plenty of room at the top" regardless of whether they actually like him. That is what Tocqueville said. People will tolerate a lot of incompetence,inequality, injustice, abuse, and corruption if they think they might have a shot to make it worth it.
2) The democratic brand is simply too damaged in too many places. Maybe it has become associated with people who are "not you" or "not normal" or somehow different. Agreeing with Republicans 30 or 40% of the time won't fix it and finding new things to disagree on won't either.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1120698974686646272

Well, I doubt they are organized enough to lie to or ignore pollsters in unison. Occam's razor is that they know they royally screwed up but will not own the mistake. I think now that Democrats might actually do better but once they are given another chance, who knows.

Though a bigger Occams razor is that YouGov was given at the wrong time to measure the impact or it's an outlier for some other hidden variable.

[Person Man]

Isn't YouGov basically poo?

I get so much spam from them.

[Person Man]

It's Zogby, and it is Trump vs. someone else among likely voters. Wisconsin, the tipping-point state of 2016 and close to such in 2020:



Trump loses to everyone, at least if one ignores any margin of error.

41% is his absolute floor and 52% is his absolute ceiling.
He will realistically lose some neutral voters and win some. Say 20% each way.

So it's probably more like 43 to 50. Anything outside of that would imply someone's campaign is in disarray going forward. Anything above 48 or below 45 for Trump could be described as over or under performance.

[Person Man]

Unless there is a split in the Left side of the political spectrum, Trump does not win with less than 45% in practically any state.

Or a split in the middle.

[Person Man]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/441749-trump-approval-on-economy-at-new-high-cnn-poll
Trump approval on economy at new high: CNN poll

President Trump’s approval rating on the economy has hit a new high, according to a CNN poll released on Thursday.

A majority of respondents — 56 percent — said they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared with 41 percent who disapproved.

He'd win reelection by PV, if he'd quit twitter. He won't, so it's still Lean D.

Pretty much. People are fat and happy living off their loans. As long as that continues, trump probably has a chance.

[Person Man]

[/img]

Source unknown, but it makes sense.  Take out the Hispanic component of Roman Catholics, and Catholics are probably much like mainline Protestants in accepting or rejecting Trump.

All that I can figure on Evangelical Christians is that they have come to believe that Donald Trump, however godless he may be, serves as a tool of God as no prior President has been.
[/quote]

Evangelical Christianity isn’t Christianity.

[Person Man]

Most likely, there’s this MSM narrative that with Trump in there, there’s plenty of room at the top and that individuals are still struggling because they haven’t gotten around to claiming their spot yet. Also the fact that it never mattered that Trump is a crook because the voters knowingly already consented to him to rule, rather than to govern. Many even centrist voters also think having something as close as possible to a monarchy increases national prestige and civic pride. Especially when it’s someone who has allegedly almost infinite wealth.

[Person Man]

Chuck Todd complimented President Trump on the economy on MTP yesterday and now the entire google newsfeed on Trump is talking about rising approvals. Good day for the Prez.

So now "the Fake News" is suddenly credible?

Seriously though, what specific policy has Trump introduced to make people think that he should be credited with the economic stability we are seeing? This doesn't just apply to him actually, it goes for any President. It's a real pet peeve of mine for Americans to simplistically associate the economy with the President. The economy as a concept isn't that simplistic, there is much more that affects it than who the President is. A President can certainly influence and affect it, but never to the point where they are the sole reason why an economy is good or bad. I wish Americans would stop thinking this way and understand the real job of the President and what they can and cannot do. Though, thanks to his party being spineless shills for him, Trump seems to be indicating that the President can in fact do anything. Trump's soft support really are the worst people in the country.

What has he even done lately to cause this improvement in his approval ratings overall? Because trampling over the Constitution, threatening immigrants with new pointless restrictions, and failing to get North Korea to decrease their nuclear program, among other failings of his; seem to clearly not matter to the simple-minded, short-term memory having people of this surely doomed nation.

I'm getting ahead of myself though. His poll numbers are bound to dip again, as is always the case and I guess I just take solace that these kind of polls are happening now as opposed to in October of November of next year, because these are the kind of numbers (in spite of still being kind of crappy) that indicate his re-election, by the Trump standard of course. If we do see  numbers similar to these again at that time, game over. This country is his and his party's and will be even more unrecognizable after another four years of him being President.

In Trump we trust, right?

[Person Man]

That could be the ceiling for a Democrat with maybe Texas or Georgia, but not both.

[Person Man]

St. Leo University, April 22-29, 1000 adults (change from Feb.)

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-3)

Strongly approve 22
Strongly disapprove 44

Has Trumps performance actually improved?

[Person Man]

In the RCP average, Trump's approval rating has reached the highest level since his inauguration with 44.4%

Hasn’t he reached that before several times? Isn’t he still two points lower than his last peak net approval?

[Person Man]

He’s back underwater by double digits according to 538. Maybe he’s getting better at the job. This was probably a pump because his department of labor said anybody who wants a job can have a job. Now we are getting report that the trade war might be escalating. Noice. There’s also the issue of looming constitutional crisis and whatever else is looming on the horizon. I don’t know. Maybe the trade negotiations will be smoothed  over with some hookers and blow tomorrow And maybe the packed courts will just tell Congress to shut the heck up.

[Person Man]

Trump is up to 45.1 in the rcp average.

His approval, imo, has gone from bad to mediocre (if you look at his ratings at this time compared to past presidents.

Gallup and nbc/wsj have him at 46%, which is higher tha reagan, carter, and obama

Not saying that is good or ideal, but it isn’t insurmountable at all to win re-election if you can just get those numbers up a tiny bit

With the Mueller investigation losing it's heat and the economy continuing to be good, it's likely that Trump's numbers will continue to rise the next few months.

His disapprovals continue to be kind of high. He's still off peak net approval. So, maybe people are "making peace" with Trump or more people are simply getting off the fence.