Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So the great conspiracy is that RCP's Grand Plan is to influence the election by giving Trump an extra point?

RCP (prefers registered or likely if there is):
44.0/51.8

538 (polls of likely or registered voters):
43.5/51.9


Got it.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1116031148327616519
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1116031431027896321

Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/248633/post-mueller-report-trump-approval-back-high.aspx

With that rate Trump will win reelection in landslide! 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Me, after reading comments after an obvious joke >>>

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

There hasn't been a gold-standard-poll in almost 3 weeks now. Are they waiting for the release of Barr-Mueller's report?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Monmouth University, 11-15 April

40/54 (vs 44/51 month ago)

RV: 40/54 (vs 44/52)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_041719.pdf/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNN/SSRS, April 25-28, 1007 adults (prior poll March 14-17)

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 35 (not asked in March)
Strongly disapprove 42

Impeach Trump?

Yes 37 (+1)
No 59 (nc)

RV:

44/53%   (strongly 37/43%) MOE 3.9%

RV Very Enthu Pres (I guess very enthusiastic about voting for president):

46/52% (strongly 42/47%) MOE 4.5%


Seems like Trump's MAGA-base are more enthusiastic, but still is too smal. Interesting how/if the Democratic, perhaps, dirty primary will influence that.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2618
Quinnipiac University National Poll

American voters give President Trump a negative 41 - 55 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 38 - 55 percent rating March 5, before the release of the Mueller Report. Today, there is a wide gender gap as women disapprove 62 - 34 percent while men are divided, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.

RV:

41(+2)/55(+0)%    (strongly 30/46%)

American voters say 57 - 28 percent that Donald Trump committed crimes before he became president, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

This compares to results of a March 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University National Poll, before release of the Mueller Report, in which voters said 64 - 24 percent that President Trump committed crimes before he was elected.

In today's survey, 46 percent of voters say Trump committed crimes since he became president and 46 percent say he did not commit crimes.

But American voters say 66 - 29 percent that Congress should not begin impeachment of President Trump. Democrats support impeachment 56 - 38 percent. Opposition to impeachment is 95 - 4 percent among Republicans and 70 - 27 percent among independent voters.

Investigating Trump distracts Congress from other national issues, 53 percent of voters say, while 43 percent say Congress can investigate Trump and work on other national issues at the same time.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller conducted a fair investigation, voters say 72 - 18 percent, including 65 - 25 percent among Republicans.

Voters say 51 - 38 percent that the Mueller Report did not clear President Trump of any wrongdoing.

American voters also say 54 - 42 percent that Trump "attempted to derail or obstruct the investigation into the Russian interference in the 2016 election."

Committed a crime, but should not be impeached? Does it mean that they think crime is not serious enough?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/441749-trump-approval-on-economy-at-new-high-cnn-poll
Trump approval on economy at new high: CNN poll

President Trump’s approval rating on the economy has hit a new high, according to a CNN poll released on Thursday.

A majority of respondents — 56 percent — said they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared with 41 percent who disapproved.

He'd win reelection by PV, if he'd quit twitter. He won't, so it's still Lean D.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I don't know if Gallup has caught the trend or if it is just an outlier (likely it is), but I still expect we'll have a Post-Mueller bump. Mueller-fever has had the all MSM:s airtime in two long years. Mueller will testify in May, and, I'd say, that Collusion-coverage will mostly dies off by the fall.

Whatever the NEW news coverage will be about, it'll likely be way better for Trump than Mueller's investigation coverage with talking heads seeing the things.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Presented without comment:

Zogby, May 2-9, 852 LV

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

Oh my God, highly honourable Zogby!

Change since  FEB 14-17, 2019:
Approval 51% (+7)
Disapproval 48% (-5).

That's a swing of 12% towards your favourite President Donald J Trump. Complete and total EXONERATION! 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I think the trade war and these southern and southernized states passing Shariah law is probably taking its toll.

Nuh. Today's YouGov, MAY 13-14:
45/50 (1000 Adults)
45/53 (765 RV)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3bgeacw1lw/tabs_Trump_Tweets_20190513.pdf


Basically, no significant movements since shutdown.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

YouGov's daily snapshots are VERY noisy.  I recommend only using their weekly tracker for trends.

They are noisier because of smaller sample, 1500 vs 1000, but the difference should NOT be VERY big. It is not a magic.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

OK, to check my own impressions on the relative noisiness of the YouGov polls, I plotted their daily Trump approval ratings for the last month.  This is the rating among adults from 538's database.



Weekly approval among adults in the same time period was 41, 42, 42, 42, 39.

You can decide for yourself which one is noisier.

Plot the binomial given that Trump's "true" approval is 42% and 1000 voters.

n=1000
p=0.42
print numpy.random.binomial(n, p, 20)/10

gave me

[44 44 41 42 39 43 40 39 42 41 44 40 40 41 41 44 43 43 42 44]

Noisy enough? Stat 101.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

Quinnipiac University, 1,078 RV, MAY 16-20.

38 (-3)
57!!! (+2)


So Rasmussen did, indeed, show the trend. Who would believe that? Rasmussen!

The nation's economy is "excellent," 22 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll today, the highest "excellent" rating for the economy. Another 49 percent of voters say the economy is "good." The total 71 percent for "excellent" and "good" is the highest total number for American voter attitudes on the economy in almost 18 years.

Some 52 percent of American voters say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, while 21 percent say they are worse off and 23 percent say they are the same.

But American voters give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 41 - 55 percent approval in a May 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll.

American voters give Trump mixed grades for his handling of the economy as 48 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. He gets negative grades for handling other issues:
37 - 58 percent for handling foreign policy;
39 - 53 percent for handling trade;
40 - 50 percent for handling the nation's policy toward China;
37 - 47 percent for handling the nation's policy toward Iran.
Voters say 48 - 40 percent the president's trade policies are bad for the U.S. economy, and say 44 - 36 percent that these policies are bad for their personal financial situation.

FAKE NEWS!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

The change from their last poll from January:

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-7)

It's a swing of 12!
Trumpomentum!  

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1131152788770181121

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNBC All-America Economic Survey, May 22-26, 800 adults (change from March)

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Also >>>

Meanwhile 48% of the public approves of the job the president is doing handling the economy, with 43% disapproving, largely unchanged from last quarter. But that’s not the case for views on how the President handles trade negotiations with other countries, where 37% approve and 43% disapprove, and 16% offer no opinion.

The numbers are worse for the president’s border security and immigration policies, with 37% approving and 50% disapproving. They are about as bad again for President Trump’s handling of the U.S. relationship with China, with just 32% approving and 45% disapproving.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/01/rel7a.-.trump,.investigations.pdf

CNN: May 28-31, 2019


Adults:
43% (nc compared to April 25-28)
52% (nc)

RV:
43% (-1)
53% (nc)

For what it is worth:
RV who are very enthu about pres vote:  48/50
RV who are less enthu about pres vote: 31/60



Favs:
45% (nc)
53% (-1)


Impeach:
41% (+4)
54% (-5)