Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[BlueSwan]

Shocked there for a moment, until I saw that it was Texas numbers.

[BlueSwan]

Virginia: University of Mary Washington, Sep. 3-15, 1009 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Biden 55, Trump 37
Warren 53, Trump 38
Sanders 53, Trump 38
Harris 50, Trump 38

That's nice!

[BlueSwan]

I want to point out, as I occasionally do, that outliers are important and still tell you something. If you have 5 polls that are within 3 points of each other and then you have another one that's 10 points higher, yes the latter is probably overestimating the support significantly. But it also means the other 5 are probably collectively underestimating it.

This is very true. People are too quick to dismiss "outliers" as having no worth, which is not true.

[BlueSwan]

Say what you want about Trump’s ‘dismal’ approval ratings, but he’s right where Obama was at this point in his presidency.....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_vs_president_obama_job_approval.html

Cherry picking much? It's true that they were at the same mark at this very point into their first term, but that was Obamas low point, whereas Trumps numbers have been consistently bad. Obama won because his approval improved from here on. The chances of Trumps approval improving much seem slim.

[BlueSwan]

North Carolina: PPP, Oct. 4-6, 963 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 51

Impeach Trump?

Support 48
Oppose 48

51% disapproval in NC. I like seeing that.

[BlueSwan]

Trump's key to victory last time was winning with people who disapproved of both him and Clinton. The disapprove and pro-impeachment numbers are almost exactly the same in a lot of these polls. I don't think he's going to be able to do that this time. If you think he should be impeached you're not going to vote for him.

There's little doubt that Trump would lose big to a generic democrat, but we all know such a person does not exist. Most republicans disapproved of Trump before he became the republican nominee in 2016, but still showed up for him. Contrary to 2016 when democratic turnout was subdued due to the erroneous belief that the election was already won, democrats will be fired up in 2020 to oust Trump. But democrats should be really careful in picking the right nominee. I really believe that they do NOT need to nominate an "inspiring leader" or anything like that. The democratic base will show up in 2020. The problem is whether it is easier to get moderates and NeverTrump republicans to show up for Warren/Sanders or to get leftists to show up for Biden/Harris/Buttigieg/O'Rourke/Booker/Klobuchar. I strongly believe the latter. The vast majority of actual leftists will be more than motivated enough to oust Trump, whereas many moderates will be scared off by a "radical" leftist candidate, some even enough to support Trump, while others will just abstain.

[BlueSwan]

Marist, Oct. 3-8, 1123 adults including 926 RV (2-week change)

Adults:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 43

Support impeachment of Trump?

Support 49
Oppose 47

Support removal of Trump?

Support 48
Oppose 48


RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 41

Definitely vote for Trump 39
Definitely vote against him 52

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 45

Support impeachment of Trump?

Yes 49
No 48

Support removal of Trump?

Support 47
Oppose 49

Interesting that definitely vote against Trump is higher than his disapprovals. So there are people who approve of Trump who are definitely voting against him....

[BlueSwan]

Forget approvals, somebody please tell me how 35% of minnesotas could possibly have a VERY favourable opinion of Donald Trump. I mean the guy is a complete a**clown whether you like his politics or not. Amazing, really.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1186822019138162688

60% disapprove among RV's. I like that.

[BlueSwan]

Sometimes I think the people on this forum dont really care about polling.

I think it's more a case that many of them don't understand what polling can and can't tell you, and this causes them to either have too much faith in polls or not enough.

Spot on.